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Canada’s construction pipeline strengthened at year-end, with building permits surging in December and delivering a clear upside surprise after a sharp prior-month drop.

• Building Permits (MoM, Dec): +6.8% vs +4.9% expected, -13.2% prior

The rebound suggests new project intentions recovered and could translate into firmer construction activity in coming months—though permits can be volatile, so markets will watch for follow-through.

CAD angle:

A stronger permits print is mildly supportive for CAD via the growth channel, but the loonie is usually driven more by oil prices, U.S. macro, and Bank of Canada expectations than by a single housing indicator.

Canada’s consumer mood weakened again in February, with the Thomson Reuters/Ipsos PCSI falling to 47.46 from 49.28 previously—pushing sentiment deeper into a soft zone.

• PCSI (Feb): 47.46 vs 49.28 prior

The decline suggests households are growing more cautious, which can weigh on discretionary spending and reinforce a slower-demand narrative if it persists.

CAD angle:

This indicator is usually not a major FX mover, but weaker sentiment can be mildly CAD-negative via growth expectations. For the loonie, the bigger drivers remain oil prices, U.S. macro, and Bank of Canada expectations.

Canada’s leading index ticked slightly higher in January, rising 0.28% MoM versus 0.27% previously. The small uptick suggests the forward-looking growth signal is stabilizing/improving at the margin rather than deteriorating—mildly supportive for the CAD narrative, though the move is incremental.

Canada’s January labor report sent a split signal. The unemployment rate fell to 6.5% (vs 6.8% expected, **6.8% prior), but employment fell -24.8K (vs +5.2K expected, **+10.1K prior). The composition shows a clear quality gap: full-time jobs rose +44.9K (vs **+50.2K expected), while part-time jobs plunged -69.7K (vs **-41.3K prior). Wage growth cooled, with average hourly wages for permanent employees at 3.3% YoY (vs **3.7% prior), and the participation rate slipped to 65.0% (from 65.4%). Bottom line: the lower jobless rate looks partly driven by a smaller labor force and a shift away from part-time work, while wage cooling points to easing inflation pressure—mixed-to-soft at the margin for CAD.

Canada’s Ivey PMI rebounded into expansion in January, rising to 50.9 (vs 49.7 expected, down from 51.9 prior). While it’s slightly softer than December, it’s still above 50, signalling improving business conditions month-to-month. The non-seasonally adjusted Ivey PMI also strengthened to 47.0 (vs **43.3 prior), indicating better underlying activity even after stripping out seasonal adjustment. For CAD, the return above 50 is mildly supportive of growth optics, especially after other recent soft spots in Canada data.

Canada’s S&P Global Services PMI fell to 45.8 in January from 46.5 previously, moving further below the 50 line and signaling a deeper contraction in services activity. The weaker reading points to soft demand and cautious hiring/ordering behavior in the largest part of the economy—an incremental headwind for CAD sentiment, especially if it reinforces a more dovish rates outlook.

Canada’s total reserve assets increased to $128.7B in January from $127.8B previously. The uptick suggests a modest strengthening of the reserve buffer—generally a neutral-to-supportive signal for confidence in external liquidity, though CAD is typically driven more by rates, oil, and growth differentials than by reserve levels.

Canada’s S&P Global Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.4 in January from 48.6 previously, moving back above 50 and signaling a shift from contraction to modest expansion. The improvement suggests factory conditions stabilized at the start of the year—potentially a supportive signal for CAD if it’s reinforced by stronger new orders and output in upcoming releases.

Canada’s budget balance posted a -$8.02B deficit in November, deteriorating from -$2.28B previously. On a 12-month basis, the budget balance (YoY) also widened to -$26.39B from -$18.37B, signalling a softer fiscal position versus the prior reading. The data can keep attention on Canada’s borrowing needs and debt dynamics, though near-term CAD sensitivity will still be dominated by growth and BoC rate expectations.

Canada’s GDP was flat at 0.0% m/m in November, missing expectations of 0.1% but improving from -0.3% previously—signalling the contraction eased into a stall. The preliminary December GDP estimate rose 0.1% m/m, above the 0.0% expectation, hinting at a modest rebound into year-end. Overall, the data point to stabilising growth momentum, which can slightly temper near-term recession concerns while keeping the focus on whether activity can re-accelerate in early 2026.

Canada’s average weekly earnings rose 2.45% y/y in November, accelerating from 2.00% previously. The pickup points to firmer wage momentum into year-end—supportive for household income and consumption, but also a variable the Bank of Canada will watch for persistence in services inflation.

Canada’s trade balance deteriorated to a -C$2.20B deficit in November, much weaker than the -C$0.70B expected and down from -C$0.40B previously. The miss was driven mainly by softer exports: exports fell to C$63.94B from C$65.78B, while imports were broadly steady at C$66.14B (vs C$66.18B prior). The mix points to a weaker net-trade contribution to near-term growth and can be a mild headwind for CAD if the export softness persists.