EconoTicker

Importance: Low

Canada’s Leading Index (MoM) rose 0.07% in March, compared with 0.11% previously. With no forecast shown in the provided data, the key signal is that the leading index remained positive but slowed from the prior month. That points to softer forward-looking growth momentum.

Possible Market Effect: The data may have a limited immediate impact, but they suggest a slightly softer near-term growth signal for Canada.

Source: Statistics Canada

Canada’s March Ivey PMI fell to 49.7, well below the forecast of 55.9 and the previous 56.6, moving below the 50 threshold and signaling contraction in the seasonally adjusted reading. At the same time, the Ivey PMI n.s.a. edged up to 56.5 from 56.3 previously. The combination suggests that underlying business momentum weakened materially in March, even though the non-seasonally adjusted measure remained comparatively firm.

Possible Market Effect: The seasonally adjusted drop below 50 may support a more cautious view on Canada’s near-term domestic activity outlook, particularly if confirmed by other business and demand indicators.

Source: Ivey Purchasing Managers Index

Canada’s Reserve Assets Total fell to 126.8B in March from 128.1B previously. With no forecast provided, the main signal is a month-on-month decline in reserve holdings. The data indicate that Canada entered the new month with a smaller stock of reserve assets, pointing to a softer external liquidity buffer than in the previous reading.

Source: Government of Canada

Importance: Low

Canada’s S&P Global Services PMI rose to 47.20 in March from 46.50 previously. Although the reading improved from the prior month, it remained below the 50 threshold, indicating that the services sector stayed in contraction territory. The data suggest that business conditions became less weak, but the sector has not yet returned to expansion.

Possible Market Effect: The release may have only a limited market impact on its own, but it still points to a subdued services backdrop and does not offer a strong growth-positive signal.

Source: S&P Global

Canada’s trade balance came in at -5.74B in February, worse than the -2.50B forecast and wider than -4.18B previously. Exports increased to 66.31B, up from 62.32B, while imports rose to 72.05B from 66.50B. The data shows that although exports improved, stronger import growth led to a larger-than-expected trade deficit.

Importance: Medium

Possible Market Effect: A wider deficit may weigh slightly on the Canadian dollar, especially if driven by persistent import strength.

Source: Statistics Canada.

Canada’s S&P Global Manufacturing PMI fell to 50.0 in March from 51.0 previously. With no forecast provided, the key signal is that manufacturing momentum weakened and moved back to the neutral 50 threshold, suggesting factory activity lost expansion momentum at the end of the quarter.

Possible Market Effect: The softer PMI may slightly temper confidence in Canada’s industrial outlook, although a reading at 50.0 points more to stagnation than a clear contraction.

Source: S&P Global.

Canada’s GDP rose 0.1% month-on-month in January, above the 0.0% forecast but slower than 0.2% previously. For February, the preliminary estimate showed 0.2% monthly growth, up from 0.1% in January. The combined reading suggests Canadian activity remained in expansion territory and regained some momentum in February after a slower start in January.

Possible Market Effect: The firmer preliminary February reading may be mildly supportive for the Canadian dollar, as it points to steadier growth momentum than January alone suggested.

Source: Statistics Canada.

Canada’s early February wholesale estimate pointed to a 2.3% monthly increase, reversing January’s 1.0% decline and signaling a rebound in distribution activity. But the fiscal side looked weaker. January’s budget balance showed a C$5.07 billion deficit, while the year-to-date budget gap widened to C$31.21 billion, versus about C$26.1 billion a year earlier. Together, the figures suggest business activity improved at the margin, even as the federal fiscal position became softer.

Source: Statistics Canada — Wholesale Trade Early Indicator; Department of Finance Canada — Fiscal Monitor.

Canada’s average weekly earnings rose by about 2.0% year on year in January, up from 1.9% in December, according to Statistics Canada. The report also said average weekly earnings were little changed month-on-month, suggesting pay growth improved modestly on an annual basis but did not accelerate sharply at the start of the year.

Source: Statistics Canada — Payroll employment, earnings and hours, and job vacancies, January 2026.

Canada’s manufacturing sector showed a strong rebound in the advance reading for February. Manufacturing sales are estimated to have risen 3.8% month on month, after a 3.3% drop in January. Statistics Canada said the biggest gains came from the transportation equipment and food subsectors, pointing to a solid snapback after the previous month’s weakness.

Source: Statistics Canada — Monthly Survey of Manufacturing: Advance indicator.

Canada’s February upstream and housing-price data showed a mixed inflation signal. Raw Materials Price Index (RMPI) rose 0.6% MoM, well below the 2.4% forecast and sharply slower than the previous 7.7% surge, although annual RMPI accelerated to 8.6% from 8.0%. Industrial Product Price Index (IPPI) increased 0.4% MoM, below the 1.1% forecast and slower than the prior 2.8%, while annual IPPI eased slightly to 5.4% from 5.6%. In housing, the New Housing Price Index rose 0.3% MoM, beating the -0.2% expectation and reversing the previous -0.4% decline. The overall picture suggests monthly factory-gate and raw-material inflation cooled, while new-home prices showed a modest rebound.

Source: Statistics Canada

Canada’s retail data delivered a positive headline surprise in January. Retail sales rose 1.1% MoM, well above the -0.4% forecast and reversing the previous -0.4% decline. At the same time, the preliminary estimate for February retail sales came in at 0.9%, suggesting momentum may have remained positive into the next month. However, core retail sales rose only 0.8%, below the 1.2% forecast, even though that was still stronger than the previous 0.0% reading. The message is that consumer spending improved clearly, but the underlying core trend was a bit less impressive than the headline.

Source: Statistics Canada