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Canada’s preliminary GDP rose 0.4% MoM in April, improving from the previous 0.1% decline. The GDP implicit price index rose 1.10% QoQ in Q1, slightly above the previous 1.00%, showing firmer price pressure.

However, Canada’s fiscal data weakened. The March budget balance deteriorated to -29.73B, compared with the previous 5.66B surplus. On a yearly basis, the budget balance worsened to -55.28B, compared with -25.55B previously.

Importance Level: Medium

Possible Market Effect: The April GDP rebound is supportive for CAD, but the wider budget deficit and firmer price index create a mixed signal.

Market Sentiment: CAD: Neutral | Canadian bonds: Neutral-to-Sell | Canadian equities: Neutral

Source: Statistics Canada, Department of Finance Canada

Q&A

Did Canada’s April GDP improve?

Yes. Preliminary GDP rose 0.4% MoM, improving from the previous 0.1% decline.

Is Canada’s budget data positive?

No. The budget balance moved from a 5.66B surplus to a 29.73B deficit.

Canada’s Q1 growth data was weak. GDP was flat at 0.0% QoQ, compared with the previous -0.2%. Annual GDP fell 0.05%, down from the previous 0.70%. The annualized Q1 reading contracted 0.1%, far below the 1.5% forecast, though better than the previous 1.0%.

The monthly data was mixed. March GDP fell 0.1% MoM, missing the 0.4% forecast and reversing from 0.2% growth. However, preliminary April GDP rose 0.4%, improving from -0.1% previously.

Importance Level: Medium

Possible Market Effect: The weak Q1 and March data are negative for CAD, but the April rebound may limit downside if confirmed.

Market Sentiment: CAD: Neutral-to-Sell | Canadian equities: Neutral

Source: Statistics Canada

Q&A

Did Canada's GDP beat expectations?

No. Annualized Q1 GDP contracted 0.1%, far below the 1.5% forecast.

Is Canada’s growth picture fully negative?

Not fully. Q1 and March were weak, but preliminary April GDP improved to 0.4%.

Canada’s average weekly earnings rose 3.50% YoY in March, accelerating from 2.85% previously. The data points to firmer wage growth, which can support household income but may also keep services inflation pressure alive.

Importance Level: Low

Possible Market Effect: Stronger wage growth may offer mild support to CAD, but it could also keep the Bank of Canada cautious if wage pressure feeds into inflation.

Market Sentiment: CAD: Neutral-to-Buy

Source: Statistics Canada

Q&A

Did Canada’s wage growth improve?

Yes. Average weekly earnings rose from 2.85% to 3.50% YoY.

Canada’s current account deficit widened to -7.2B in Q1, worse than the -3.9B forecast and the previous -1.0B. The larger deficit signals weaker external balance and may reflect pressure from trade, income flows, or cross-border payments.

Importance Level: Medium

Possible Market Effect: A wider current account deficit is negative for Canadian external-sector sentiment and may weigh mildly on CAD.

Market Sentiment: CAD: Neutral-to-Sell

Source: Statistics Canada

Q&A

Did Canada’s current account improve?

No. The deficit widened from -1.0B to -7.2B.

Is Canada’s current account data negative for CAD?

Mildly yes. A larger external deficit can weigh on CAD sentiment.

Canada’s preliminary manufacturing sales rose 4.6% MoM in April, stronger than the previous 3.0% increase. No forecast was provided. The data points to stronger factory activity and better momentum in Canada’s goods-producing sector.

Importance Level: Low

Possible Market Effect:

The stronger manufacturing sales reading may offer mild support for Canadian growth expectations and the Canadian dollar, especially if confirmed in the final release.

Market Sentiment: Canadian Dollar / CAD: Neutral-to-Buy

Source: Statistics Canada

Q&A

Did Canada manufacturing sales improve in April?

Yes. Preliminary manufacturing sales rose 4.6%, stronger than the previous 3.0% increase.

Is Canada’s manufacturing sales data positive for CAD?

Mildly yes. Stronger manufacturing activity can support growth sentiment and help CAD.

Canada’s Corporate Profits fell 2.0% QoQ, deeper than the previous 1.6% decline. No forecast was provided. The data suggests Canadian companies continue to face pressure on profitability, which may reflect weaker demand, higher costs, or tighter financial conditions.

Importance Level: Low

Possible Market Effect:

Weaker corporate profits may weigh on Canadian equity sentiment and reduce confidence in business investment. Combined with slower wholesale sales, the data is mildly negative for CAD.

Market Sentiment: Canadian Dollar / CAD: Neutral-to-Sell

Source: Statistics Canada

Q&A

Did Canadian corporate profits improve?

No. Corporate profits declined 2.0% QoQ, worse than the previous 1.6% fall.

Is Canada’s corporate profits data negative for Canadian equities?

Yes. Falling profits can pressure equity sentiment, especially if margins continue to weaken.

Canada’s preliminary Wholesale Sales rose only 0.1% MoM in April, sharply slower than the previous 1.9% increase. No forecast was provided. The data points to weaker wholesale activity and suggests business demand may have lost momentum at the start of Q2.

Importance Level: Low

Possible Market Effect:

The weaker wholesale sales reading may slightly weigh on Canadian growth expectations. For the Canadian dollar, the impact is mildly negative, especially if weaker activity combines with softer corporate profitability.

Market Sentiment: Canadian Dollar / CAD: Neutral-to-Sell

Source: Statistics Canada

Q&A

Did Canada's wholesale sales slow in April?

Yes. Wholesale sales growth slowed from 1.9% to 0.1% month-on-month.

Is Canada's wholesale sales data negative for CAD?

Mildly yes. Slower wholesale activity can reduce growth confidence and slightly pressure CAD.

Canada’s BoC Senior Loan Officer Survey fell to 1.0 in Q1 from 2.8 previously. A lower reading suggests lending conditions became less restrictive, pointing to easier credit availability.

Importance Level: Low

Possible Market Effect: Easier lending conditions may support Canadian growth and credit activity, but the direct impact on CAD is limited.

Overall Market Sentiment: Neutral for CAD

Q&A

Did Canada’s Senior Loan Officer Survey fall? Yes. It declined from 2.8 to 1.0.

What does a lower reading suggest? It suggests credit conditions may be less restrictive.

Source: Bank of Canada

Canada’s producer-price data showed continued cost pressure. RMPI MoM rose 2.6% in April, slightly below the 2.7% forecast and sharply below the previous 11.9% surge. However, RMPI YoY jumped to 31.6%, up from 23.4%, showing raw-material inflation remains intense.

The IPPI MoM rose 2.0%, above the 1.2% forecast but below the previous 2.8%. IPPI YoY rose to 11.4%, up from 8.4%, confirming stronger annual industrial-product price pressure.

Importance Level: Medium

Possible Market Effect: Hot annual RMPI and IPPI readings are supportive for CAD from an inflation and rate-expectation perspective. But they may also pressure corporate margins and keep inflation risks alive for the Bank of Canada.

Overall Market Sentiment: Neutral-to-Buy for CAD, but inflation risk remains high.

Q&A

Is Canada’s RMPI still hot? Yes. RMPI rose 31.6% YoY, up from 23.4%.

Did Canada’s IPPI beat expectations? Yes. IPPI rose 2.0% MoM, above the 1.2% forecast.

What does this mean for the Bank of Canada? It keeps producer-side inflation risk active, limiting room for a strongly dovish policy stance.

Source: Statistics Canada

Canada’s March retail sales data came in stronger than expected. Retail Sales rose 0.9% MoM, above the 0.6% forecast and stronger than the previous 0.7%. Core Retail Sales rose 1.4% MoM, beating the 0.9% forecast and improving from 0.6% previously.

However, the preliminary April reading showed slower momentum, with Retail Sales rising 0.6% MoM, down from the March 0.9% gain.

Importance Level: Medium

Possible Market Effect: Strong March retail sales are supportive for CAD and Canadian domestic-demand sentiment. But the softer preliminary April reading reduces the strength of the positive signal.

Overall Market Sentiment: Neutral-to-Buy for CAD

Q&A

Did Canada’s March retail sales beat expectations? Yes. Headline retail sales rose 0.9% MoM, above the 0.6% forecast.

Were Canada’s core retail sales strong? Yes. Core retail sales rose 1.4% MoM, above the 0.9% forecast.

Did Canada’s preliminary April retail sales improve? Yes, but at a slower pace of 0.6% MoM.

Source: Statistics Canada

Importance: Low to Medium

Market Sentiment: CAD Neutral-to-Sell

Canada’s data were mixed but leaned negative. Manufacturing Sales rose 3.0% MoM in March, but missed the 3.5% forecast and slowed from 3.4% previously. The data still show expansion, but the pace was weaker than expected.

Capital-flow data also softened. Foreign Securities Purchases by Canadians fell to 3.900B, down sharply from 25.270B previously, pointing to a major slowdown in Canadian purchases of foreign securities.

Possible Market Effect:

The signal is Neutral-to-Sell for CAD. Manufacturing sales remained positive, but the forecast miss and sharp slowdown in securities purchases weaken the overall macro signal.

Q&A

Did Canada’s manufacturing sales beat expectations in March?

No. Manufacturing Sales rose 3.0%, below the 3.5% forecast.

Did Canadian purchases of foreign securities increase?

No. They fell sharply to 3.900B from 25.270B.

Source: Statistics Canada