EconoTicker

U.S. factory orders rose 1.4% MoM in August, matching expectations and reversing the prior -1.3% decline. However, factory orders excluding transportation increased only 0.1%, down from the previous 0.5%, suggesting that underlying manufacturing momentum remains modest despite the headline rebound.

Market impact: Neutral for USD; headline recovery is positive, but weaker core orders limit upside for manufacturing sentiment.

U.S. durable goods orders excluding defense rose 1.9% MoM in August, matching the previous reading and signaling continued strength in big-ticket manufacturing demand. However, durable goods excluding transportation increased only 0.3%, slightly below the prior 0.4%, indicating a modest cooling in core factory activity.

Market impact: Neutral for USD; strong defense-adjusted orders support sentiment, but softer core gains temper momentum.

U.S. Redbook retail sales rose 6.1% YoY, up from 5.9%, signaling steady consumer spending momentum heading into the holiday season. The improvement highlights resilient demand despite higher borrowing costs and ongoing economic uncertainty.

Market impact: Mildly positive for USD; stronger retail trends support expectations for solid consumer activity.

U.S. labor market data showed signs of cooling, with initial jobless claims rising to 232K, up from 223K and above the prior 219K. Continuing jobless claims increased to 1,947K, and later to 1,957K, marking a steady uptick from earlier levels. The 4-week average rose to 258K, indicating a broader upward trend. The figures suggest easing labor-market tightness as more Americans remain on unemployment benefits for longer.

Market impact: Mildly negative for USD; higher claims reinforce expectations of a gradual labor-market slowdown.

Yields on U.S. short-term government debt ticked up on Monday. The 3-month Treasury bill auction cleared at 3.795%, slightly above the prior 3.780%, while the 6-month bill yield rose to 3.710% from 3.690%. The modest increases reflect steady demand and shifting expectations around near-term interest-rate policy.

Market impact: Neutral to mildly supportive for USD; higher short-term yields signal resilient demand for U.S. government debt.

U.S. construction spending rose 0.2% MoM in August, recovering from the prior -0.2% decline and matching forecasts. The uptick reflects steady activity across residential and commercial projects, signaling resilience in the construction sector despite higher financing costs.

Market impact: Mildly positive for USD; stable construction activity supports the broader economic outlook.

The NY Empire State Manufacturing Index surged to 18.7 in November, sharply higher than the prior 6.1 and well above expectations of 10.7. The strong reading signals a notable improvement in business conditions across New York’s manufacturing sector, supported by better orders and production momentum.

Market impact: Positive for USD; stronger manufacturing data reinforces confidence in the U.S. economic outlook.

The Federal Reserve’s balance sheet inched up to $6.580 trillion, compared with $6.573 trillion previously, marking a modest weekly expansion. Reserve balances held at Federal Reserve Banks also rose to $2.883 trillion, up from $2.852 trillion, reflecting higher liquidity parked by financial institutions.

The increases suggest stable funding conditions despite tighter monetary policy and ongoing balance-sheet normalization.

Market impact: Neutral for USD; slight balance-sheet growth has limited near-term implications for dollar liquidity or policy expectations.

Yields on short-term U.S. Treasury bills moved slightly higher in the latest auctions. The 4-week bill cleared at 3.900%, up from 3.875%, while the 8-week bill rose to 3.835% from 3.815%.

In contrast, demand for long-duration debt strengthened, with the 30-year bond yield easing to 4.694%, down from 4.734% at the prior auction — a sign of stronger appetite for safe, long-term government debt amid rising market volatility.

Market impact: Neutral to mildly bullish for Treasuries; firm demand for long-term bonds reflects heightened risk aversion, while higher short-term yields suggest ongoing uncertainty around Fed policy.

U.S. Treasury bonds attracted renewed buying on Friday as investors sought safety amid a sharp global selloff. Two-year yields slipped 0.8 bps to 3.5786%, partially reversing the 3 bps increase seen overnight. The 10-year yield held steady at 4.1134%, after also rising 3 bps in the previous session.

The bid for Treasuries reflects elevated risk aversion as markets digest hawkish Fed commentary and tighter financial conditions.

Market impact: Supportive for bonds; steady-to-lower yields signal stronger demand for safe-haven assets in a volatile environment.

Federal Reserve officials delivered a fresh round of hawkish remarks, further reducing expectations for near-term rate cuts. St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem said the central bank had “limited room to ease” without risking overly accommodative policy. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack warned that rates must stay restrictive to keep downward pressure on inflation.

Meanwhile, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari told Bloomberg he opposed a rate cut last month and remains undecided about supporting one in December. The comments reinforced market doubts over a 2025 easing cycle.

Market impact: Negative for risk assets; renewed hawkish tone reduces rate-cut odds and supports USD and yields.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.1211%, up slightly from 4.111% at Thursday’s U.S. close. The 2-year yield, which moves in line with expectations for Fed policy, ticked up to 3.593% from 3.589%.

Despite firmer Treasury yields, the U.S. dollar index fell over 0.1% to 98.90, marking its lowest level this month, as weakening rate-cut expectations failed to lift overall dollar sentiment.

Market impact: Mixed; rising yields support the USD fundamentally, but broad risk shifts and currency flows are keeping the dollar under pressure.