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U.S. M2 money supply was unchanged at $22.30T in November (prior $22.30T), indicating a stable broad-liquidity backdrop with no fresh acceleration or contraction in aggregate money growth. The flat reading suggests monetary conditions are not shifting materially through the M2 channel, leaving markets focused on rates, credit conditions, and risk appetite for the dominant liquidity signal.

Market impact: Typically neutral for USD—M2 levels rarely drive FX day-to-day; the dollar’s direction remains primarily tied to Fed-path pricing, real yields, and global risk sentiment.

The U.S. 52-week bill auction stopped at 3.380%, down from 3.460%, pointing to slightly easier funding rates at the very front end. In contrast, the 5-year note auction cleared at 3.747% versus 3.562% previously, a notable rise that suggests investors demanded a higher yield in the belly—consistent with firmer term premium and/or less conviction around rapid Fed easing.

Market impact: Mildly supportive for USD via higher intermediate yields—lower bill yields ease near-term funding, but the higher 5Y stop can lift the curve’s belly and keep rate-sensitive assets and FX focused on the 2026 policy path.

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate for Q4 slipped to 3.0% (expected 3.5%, prior 3.5%), indicating the model is marking down near-term growth momentum. Even so, a 3% tracking rate still implies a solid expansion pace, suggesting the U.S. economy continues to grow at a healthy clip despite recent mixed signals in hard data and sentiment indicators.

Market impact: Slightly dovish for USD at the margin—downward revisions can ease near-term rate-pressure via growth expectations, but the level remains strong enough to keep yields supported unless inflation cools further.

The Richmond Fed’s manufacturing index rose to -7 in December (expected -8, prior -15), showing conditions improved versus last month but remained in negative territory. Manufacturing shipments also stayed weak at -11 (prior -14), indicating outbound activity is still contracting, even if the pace of decline moderated. In services, the index slipped to -6 (prior -4), suggesting the services side weakened slightly after a marginally better prior reading.

Market impact: Mildly dovish for USD—manufacturing is still below zero and services softened, reinforcing a cautious growth tone that can support lower yield expectations unless inflation data re-accelerates.

The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index dropped to 89.1 in December (expected 91.7, prior 92.9), a larger-than-forecast decline that signals households turned more cautious heading into year-end. The weaker reading points to softer sentiment around jobs, income, and spending prospects, potentially tempering near-term consumption momentum if it persists.

Market impact: Mildly dovish for USD—cooler confidence can reinforce a gentler Fed narrative and weigh on yields at the margin, though markets typically look for confirmation in hard spending data (retail sales) and labor indicators.

U.S. capacity utilization rose to 76.0% in November (prior 75.9%), signaling a slight firming in industrial operating rates. Industrial production increased 0.2% m/m (prior -0.1%), marking a rebound after October’s decline, and the annual rate strengthened to 2.52% y/y (prior 2.20%), reinforcing a modestly improving trend. Manufacturing output was flat at 0.0% m/m (prior -0.4%), indicating the factory sector stabilized but did not yet re-accelerate.

Market impact: Mildly supportive for USD and cyclical risk—better production data can lift growth confidence and nudge yields higher, but the lack of a clear manufacturing acceleration keeps the Fed narrative dependent on inflation and labor-market follow-through.

U.S. capacity utilization held at 75.9% in October (in line with expectations, slightly below 76.0% prior), indicating no meaningful tightening in industrial slack. Industrial production fell -0.1% m/m (expected 0.1%, prior 0.1%), pointing to a mild monthly contraction, while manufacturing output dropped -0.4% m/m (prior 0.0%), suggesting the factory sector was the main drag. On a yearly basis, industrial production still rose 2.2% y/y (prior 1.9%), keeping the broader trend positive despite the month-to-month softness.

Market impact: Mildly dovish for USD—soft m/m prints and a manufacturing dip can support a gentler Fed narrative, though the still-positive y/y pace limits the downside and keeps markets sensitive to upcoming inflation and labor data.

The Redbook same-store sales index rose 7.2% y/y (prior 6.2%), indicating a pickup in retail spending momentum versus the previous reading. The acceleration suggests the consumer remains resilient in the near term, supporting the narrative of steady demand even as markets watch for broader confirmation from official retail sales and inflation data.

Market impact: Mildly supportive for USD and risk—firmer spending can lean yields higher and reduce near-term recession fears, but the FX reaction will still depend on how the data feeds into the Fed path and real-yield dynamics.

U.S. GDP growth was revised up to 4.3% q/q in Q3 (expected 3.3%, prior 3.8%), signaling a much stronger growth pulse than previously estimated. But the GDP price index also jumped to 3.7% (expected 2.7%, prior 2.1%), pointing to materially firmer inflation in the national accounts. Meanwhile, GDP sales (final sales to domestic purchasers) slowed to 4.6% (prior 7.5%), suggesting underlying demand cooled from the prior quarter even as the headline GDP revision improved.

Market impact: Hawkish-leaning for USD via yields—stronger growth plus hotter prices can lift rate expectations and support the dollar, though the slower sales measure can temper the move by highlighting moderation in demand momentum.

U.S. corporate profits rose 4.4% q/q in Q3 (prior 0.2%), marking a sharp acceleration in earnings momentum versus the previous quarter. The jump suggests improved profitability and potentially firmer margins, which can support business investment capacity and cushion growth even if financing conditions remain restrictive.

Market impact: Mildly supportive for U.S. equities and risk sentiment—stronger profits can underpin earnings expectations, though the broader market reaction will still hinge on rates, valuation sensitivity, and forward guidance.

U.S. inflation in the GDP accounts ran hotter in Q3, with core PCE prices at 2.90% (in line with expectations, up from 2.60%). Headline PCE prices rose 2.8% (slightly below the 2.9% forecast, up from 2.1%), confirming firmer price pressure versus the prior quarter. At the same time, real consumer spending accelerated to 3.5% (prior 2.5%), signaling resilient demand despite stickier inflation.

Market impact: Mixed for USD—stronger demand can support the dollar via higher rate expectations, but firmer core inflation also reinforces “higher-for-longer” sensitivity; net reaction typically runs through U.S. yields and the front-end repricing.

U.S. durable goods orders fell 2.2% m/m in October (expected -1.5%, prior 0.7%), a weaker-than-expected headline print that points to a pullback in goods demand. Under the surface, the core read was softer: core durable goods orders rose just 0.2% (expected 0.3%, prior 0.7) and orders excluding transportation also increased 0.2% (expected 0.3%, prior 0.7), signaling cooling momentum in underlying investment-related demand. Orders excluding defense dropped 1.5% (prior 0.1%), while non-defense capital goods orders ex-aircraft—a key proxy for business investment—rose 0.5% (prior 1.1%), still positive but slowing versus the prior month.

Market impact: Mildly dovish for USD—softer headline and cooling core momentum can support expectations for a gentler Fed path and lower front-end yields, though the still-positive capex proxy limits the downside read and keeps focus on broader growth and inflation data.