EconoTicker

Importance: Low

The Cleveland CPI (MoM) came in at 0.2% in March, unchanged from the previous 0.2%. With no forecast shown in the provided data, the main signal is stability in this inflation measure compared with the prior month.

Possible Market Effect: On its own, the release is unlikely to have a major market impact, but it suggests this regional inflation gauge remained steady in March.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

U.S. manufacturing order data for February showed a mixed but somewhat firmer underlying picture. Factory Orders (MoM) came in at 0.0%, above the forecast of -0.3% and unchanged from the previous 0.0%. Beneath the headline, Factory Orders ex transportation (MoM) rose to 1.2% from 0.5%, and Durables Excluding Transport (MoM) increased to 0.9% from 0.8%. At the same time, Durables Excluding Defense (MoM) remained negative at -1.1%, although this was slightly better than the previous -1.2%.

The overall message is that headline factory orders were flat, but core goods demand outside transportation improved further. Even so, weakness in defense-excluded durables shows that the broader industrial recovery remains uneven.

Possible Market Effect: The stronger ex-transportation readings may offer some support to the U.S. manufacturing narrative, but the flat headline and still-negative defense-excluded figure suggest markets are unlikely to treat the report as a clear upside surprise.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

The preliminary April University of Michigan survey showed a sharper deterioration in household sentiment alongside a notable rise in inflation expectations. Michigan Consumer Sentiment fell to 47.6, below the forecast of 51.6 and down from 53.3 previously. Michigan Consumer Expectations dropped to 46.1 from 51.7, while Michigan Current Conditions declined to 50.1 from 55.8.

At the same time, inflation expectations moved higher. Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations rose to 4.8%, above the forecast of 4.2% and up from 3.8% previously. Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations increased to 3.4%, in line with the forecast of 3.4% and above the previous 3.2%. Taken together, the data suggest U.S. consumers became more pessimistic in April while also expecting stronger near-term and longer-term inflation pressure.

Possible Market Effect: The combination of weaker sentiment and higher inflation expectations may keep markets cautious, because it points to softer consumer confidence but also a less comfortable inflation backdrop for the Federal Reserve.

Source: University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers

Importance: High

U.S. March inflation data showed a mixed but still firm picture. CPI (MoM) rose 0.9%, below the forecast of 1.0% but sharply above the previous 0.3%. CPI (YoY) came in at 3.3%, slightly below the forecast of 3.4%, but well above the previous 2.4%. Core inflation was somewhat softer than expected, with Core CPI (MoM) at 0.2%, below the forecast of 0.3% and unchanged from the previous 0.2%, while Core CPI (YoY) rose to 2.6%, below the forecast of 2.7% but above the previous 2.5%.

At the index level, Core CPI Index rose to 334.17 from 333.51, CPI Index, n.s.a. increased to 330.21 from 326.79, while CPI Index, s.a. rose to 330.29 from 327.46. CPI, n.s.a (MoM) accelerated to 1.05% from 0.47% previously. At the same time, Real Earnings (MoM) fell -0.9% after 0.1% previously, showing that despite a slightly softer-than-expected core reading, household purchasing power came under notable pressure in March.

The overall message is that headline inflation remained elevated because of stronger monthly price gains, while core inflation cooled marginally relative to forecasts. However, the drop in real earnings suggests inflation still outpaced income gains in real terms.

Possible Market Effect: The softer-than-expected core inflation print may ease some immediate pressure on Fed tightening expectations, but the strong headline monthly CPI and the sharp fall in real earnings keep inflation and consumer strain central for Treasury yields, the dollar, and equity pricing.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Gold edged lower on Friday, but bullion still remained on track for a weekly gain as the U.S. dollar stayed softer over the week and investors prepared for key U.S. inflation data later in the day. Spot gold was at $4,744.50 per ounce, while U.S. gold futures traded at $4,764.67. The move left bullion set for roughly a 1.5% weekly rise, extending gains even as trading turned more cautious ahead of the weekend U.S.-Iran talks. Reuters had already noted on Thursday that gold was being supported by a weaker dollar and lingering geopolitical uncertainty around the fragile ceasefire.

The dollar backdrop remained supportive for precious metals. The U.S. Dollar Index edged modestly higher on the day, but it had fallen to a one-month low in the previous session and was still on course for a weekly decline after ceasefire-related safe-haven demand for the dollar unwound. A softer dollar tends to make gold cheaper for non-U.S. buyers, helping to underpin demand even when bullion pauses.

Markets are now focused on the U.S. March CPI release due Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET, with Reuters reporting that investors expect headline inflation to accelerate as the Middle East conflict has driven a sharp rise in energy prices. The Bureau of Labor Statistics also lists the March 2026 CPI release for April 10 at 8:30 a.m. ET. That keeps inflation expectations, Fed policy pricing, and dollar direction central to near-term gold trading.

Possible Market Effect: If CPI comes in hot, firmer rate expectations could limit further upside in gold even with geopolitical support still in place. But if inflation is softer than feared and the dollar stays under pressure, bullion could remain supported near recent highs.

Source: BLS, Reuters

The Federal Reserve’s latest balance sheet data showed a further increase in liquidity-related aggregates. Fed’s Balance Sheet rose to 6,694B, up from 6,675B previously. At the same time, Reserve Balances with Federal Reserve Banks increased to 3.184T from 3.064T. The combined move points to a larger stock of assets on the Fed’s balance sheet and a noticeable rise in reserve balances held in the banking system. In macro terms, the data suggest liquidity conditions in the U.S. financial system became somewhat firmer in the latest weekly update.

Possible Market Effect: On its own, the release is unlikely to trigger a major market move, but higher reserve balances can be read as modestly supportive for near-term funding conditions and overall system liquidity.

Source: Federal Reserve

U.S. Treasury auction results showed a mixed move across maturities. The 4-Week Bill Auction came in at 3.560%, down from 3.620% previously, while the 8-Week Bill Auction was 3.575%, also below the previous 3.620%. By contrast, the 30-Year Bond Auction came in at 4.876%, slightly above the previous 4.871%. The overall picture suggests slightly softer pricing at the very short end, while long-end funding costs edged higher.

Possible Market Effect: The immediate market effect is likely limited, but the split result keeps attention on a curve that is easing modestly at the front end while staying firm at the long end.

Source: U.S. Treasury

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q1) estimate remained at 1.3%, exactly matching the forecast of 1.3% and unchanged from the previous 1.3%. The update suggests no material revision to the model’s tracking of first-quarter U.S. growth, leaving the near-term growth signal stable but modest.

Possible Market Effect: The unchanged reading is broadly neutral for markets, because it does not materially alter the current growth narrative.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

U.S. wholesale-sector data showed a stronger-than-expected inventory build and a sharp increase in sales. Wholesale Inventories (MoM) rose 0.8%, well above the forecast of -0.5% and reversing from -0.3% previously. At the same time, Wholesale Trade Sales (MoM) increased 2.7%, up from 1.1% previously. Together, the data point to a firmer wholesale activity backdrop in February, with both stock accumulation and turnover improving materially.

Possible Market Effect: The figures may modestly support the view that goods-related activity improved in February, although stronger inventories without sustained demand could become a less positive signal later if not matched by continued sales growth.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

The Dallas Fed PCE reading fell to 1.80% in February from 2.70% previously. With no forecast shown in the provided data, the latest reading points to a notable cooling in this inflation gauge. The drop suggests softer inflation momentum on this measure compared with the previous month.

Possible Market Effect: On its own, the release is unlikely to drive markets strongly, but the weaker reading may modestly support the view that some inflation gauges are easing.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

U.S. labor-market claims data sent a mixed message. Initial jobless claims rose to 219K, above the forecast of 210K and higher than the previous 203K, indicating a modest increase in new layoffs. However, continuing jobless claims fell to 1,794K, below the forecast of 1,840K and lower than the previous 1,832K, suggesting fewer people remained on unemployment benefits than expected. Jobless Claims 4-Week averages also slightly increased to 209.50K.

The combined picture points to some softening in new claims, but not a broad deterioration in ongoing labor-market conditions. That leaves the labor signal weaker than before at the margin, but not decisively negative.

Possible Market Effect: The rise in initial claims may support a slightly softer labor-market narrative, but the drop in continuing claims reduces the likelihood of a strong market reaction on its own.

Source: U.S. Department of Labor

The third estimate of U.S. fourth-quarter growth showed GDP (quarterly) at 0.5%, below the forecast of 0.7% and sharply lower than the previous 4.4%. Real consumer spending (Q4) was revised to 1.9%, below the forecast of 2.0% and well under the previous 3.5%, while GDP sales (Q4) came in at 0.3%, below the forecast of 0.4% and far below the previous 4.5%. These figures point to a much softer growth profile in late 2025 than earlier readings had indicated.

The inflation-related components of the GDP report were more mixed. GDP price index (quarterly) was 3.7%, slightly below the forecast of 3.8% and unchanged from the previous 3.7%. Core PCE prices (Q4) came in at 2.70%, matching the forecast of 2.70% and down from the previous 2.90%. PCE prices (Q4) were 2.9%, in line with the forecast of 2.9% and slightly above the previous 2.8%. Meanwhile, corporate profits (quarterly) rose 5.7%, up from the previous 4.7%. Overall, the report shows a clearer slowdown in growth and final demand, while inflation within the GDP release stayed relatively firm, and profit growth improved.

Possible Market Effect: The weaker GDP and demand revisions may reinforce concerns about slower U.S. growth, but the still-firm price measures and stronger corporate profits could limit how dovish the market becomes on the Fed outlook.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis