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EnglishپارسیEnglishپارسیOn Thursday, July 16, 2026, the United States held auctions for both 4-week and 8-week Treasury bills. The 4-week bill auction yielded an interest rate of 3.660%, slightly up from the previous rate of 3.630%. Meanwhile, the 8-week bill auction resulted in a yield of 3.650%, which also showed a modest increase from the prior rate of 3.635%. These results indicate a stable demand for short-term government securities amidst ongoing economic conditions.
Possible Market Effect: Limited impact on the market due to low importance of the events.
Q&A:
Q: What was the yield for the US 4-week bill auction on July 16, 2026?
A: The yield for the US 4-week bill auction was 3.660%.
Q: How did the yield of the US 8-week bill auction change compared to the previous auction?
A: The yield of the US 8-week bill auction increased from 3.635% to 3.650%.
Market Sentiment: Neutral - The yields are stable and reflect consistent demand for short-term securities.
Importance: Medium ★★
The Empire State Manufacturing Index jumped from 5.7 to 15.6 in July 2026, exceeding the forecast of 9.3. New orders rose to 22.2, and shipments reached a four-year high of 24.4, indicating a marked improvement in New York factory activity.
Possible Market Effect: Stronger factory activity is positive for industrial stocks and partially offsets the softer producer-inflation signal.
Market Condition and Sentiment:
U.S. Industrial Stocks: Cautiously Buyable | U.S. Dollar: Neutral
Q: What was the July Empire State Manufacturing Index?
A: The index rose to 15.6, significantly above expectations.
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Importance: High ★★★
The U.S. Producer Price Index fell 0.3% month over month in June 2026, versus expectations for no change. Annual producer inflation slowed from 6.0% to 5.5%, below the 6.2% forecast.
Core PPI rose 0.2% monthly and 4.7% annually. The broader measure excluding food, energy and trade services increased 0.1% monthly and 5.1% annually. Energy prices fell 6.4%, led by a 12% drop in gasoline prices.
Possible Market Effect: The softer headline supports bonds and rate-sensitive equities, but persistent core inflation limits expectations for aggressive Federal Reserve easing.
Market Condition and Sentiment:
U.S. Dollar: Neutral to Cautiously Sellable | Treasuries: Cautiously Buyable
Q: Did U.S. producer inflation beat expectations in June 2026?
A: Yes. Headline PPI fell 0.3%, but underlying annual inflation remained high.
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
The yield on the 17-week Treasury bill auction held on Wednesday, July 15, 2026, was recorded at 3.745%. This represents a decrease from the previous yield of 3.790%. The auction results indicate a slight easing in the yield, which may reflect current market conditions and investor sentiment towards short-term government securities. The lack of a forecast or consensus suggests that market expectations were not firmly established before the auction.
Possible Market Effect: The decline in yield may encourage buying interest in short-term Treasury bills, indicating a preference for safer assets in uncertain economic conditions.
Q&A:
Q: What was the yield on the US 17-week bill auction on July 15, 2026?
A: The yield was 3.745%.
Q: How does the current yield compare to the previous auction?
A: The current yield decreased from the previous auction's yield of 3.790%.
Market Sentiment: Buy - Investors may seek safety in short-term government securities amid economic uncertainties.
On July 15, 2026, the MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate in the United States increased to 6.65%, up from the previous rate of 6.58%. This rise in mortgage rates may indicate tightening financial conditions, impacting home affordability and potentially slowing down the housing market. In related data, the MBA Mortgage Applications fell by 2.7%, compared to a decline of 2.2% previously. The MBA Mortgage Market Index also decreased to 259.1 from 266.3, while the MBA Refinance Index saw an increase to 821.9 from 794.4. However, the MBA Purchase Index dropped to 157.2 from 169.5, suggesting a decline in purchase activity. These indicators reflect a cautious sentiment in the housing sector as higher rates may deter potential buyers and refinancers.
Possible Market Effect: The increase in mortgage rates and decline in mortgage applications may lead to a bearish sentiment in the housing market, indicating potential slowdowns in home sales and refinancing activities.
Q&A:
Q: What was the MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate in the US on July 15, 2026?
A: The MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate was 6.65% on July 15, 2026.
Q: How did the MBA Purchase Index perform on July 15, 2026?
A: The MBA Purchase Index decreased to 157.2 on July 15, 2026.
Market Sentiment: Neutral - The mixed signals from mortgage rates and applications suggest a cautious outlook in the housing market.
Importance: Low ★
The Cleveland Fed’s Median CPI rose 0.2% month over month in June 2026, slowing from 0.3% in May. The annual rate also eased from 2.9% to 2.7%, while the 16% trimmed-mean CPI was unchanged during the month. These measures suggest underlying inflation pressures moderated alongside the broader U.S. inflation report.
Possible Market Effect: Mildly negative for the U.S. dollar and supportive of Treasury bonds and gold, although the indicator is unlikely to move markets significantly by itself.
Market Condition and Sentiment:
U.S. Dollar: Neutral to Cautiously Sellable | Treasuries and Gold: Cautiously Buyable
Q: What was the Cleveland Fed Median CPI in June 2026?
A: It increased 0.2% monthly and 2.7% annually.
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
On Tuesday, July 14, 2026, the yield from the US 6-week bill auction rose to 3.640%, up from the previous yield of 3.635%. This slight increase indicates a modest shift in investor sentiment towards short-term government debt. The auction results reflect ongoing market conditions and investor demand for safe-haven assets amid fluctuating economic indicators.
Possible Market Effect: Limited impact on the USD as the yield change is minor.
Q&A:
Q: What was the yield of the US 6-week bill auction on July 14, 2026?
A: The yield was 3.640%.
Q: How does the current yield compare to the previous auction?
A: The current yield increased from the previous 3.635%.
Market Sentiment: Neutral - The minor yield increase suggests stable investor sentiment towards short-term government debt.
Importance: Low ★
U.S. Redbook same-store retail sales increased 8.2% year over year, slowing sharply from the previous 11.5% increase. Despite the slowdown, sales remained considerably above their year-earlier level.
Possible Market Effect: The decline signals softer retail momentum but remains consistent with positive nominal consumer spending.
Market Condition and Sentiment:
U.S. Dollar and Retail Stocks: Neutral
Q: What was the latest U.S. Redbook sales growth rate?
A: Same-store sales increased 8.2% from one year earlier.
Source: Redbook Research.
Importance: Medium ★★
The ADP weekly employment estimate showed U.S. private employers added an average of 19,800 jobs per week during the four weeks ending June 27, down from 21,000 previously. Hiring slowed for a third consecutive week.
Possible Market Effect: Slower hiring reinforces expectations that the Federal Reserve can avoid an immediate rate increase.
Market Condition and Sentiment:
U.S. Dollar: Neutral to Sellable | Bonds: Cautiously Buyable
Q: What did the latest weekly ADP report show?
A: Average private job creation slowed to approximately 19,800 per week.
Source: ADP National Employment Report.
Importance: High ★★★
The U.S. CPI fell 0.4% month over month in June 2026, versus expectations for a 0.1% decline, while annual inflation slowed from 4.2% to 3.5%. Core CPI was unchanged monthly and eased from 2.9% to 2.6% annually, both below forecasts. Energy prices fell 5.7%, including a 9.7% decline in gasoline.
Real hourly earnings for production and nonsupervisory workers rose 0.8% monthly, supported by the decline in consumer prices.
Possible Market Effect: The softer report reduced immediate Federal Reserve tightening expectations, lowering Treasury yields and the dollar while supporting gold and U.S. equity futures. Markets priced an approximately 84.5% probability of no July rate change.
Market Condition and Sentiment:
U.S. Dollar: Sellable short term | U.S. Treasuries: Buyable | Gold and Equities: Cautiously Buyable
Q: Was U.S. inflation below expectations in June 2026?
A: Yes. Monthly CPI fell 0.4%, while headline and core annual inflation declined to 3.5% and 2.6%.
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
The NFIB Business Optimism Index for the United States increased to 97.4 in July 2026, surpassing the forecast of 96 and the previous month's figure of 95.3. This rise indicates growing confidence among small business owners, reflecting a positive outlook for the economy. The consensus estimate was 95.8, showing that the actual result exceeded expectations. The data was released at 10:00 AM on Tuesday, July 14, 2026.
Possible Market Effect: The increase in the optimism index may lead to a slight positive sentiment in the market, as it suggests improved economic conditions.
Q&A:
Q: What was the actual value of the NFIB Business Optimism Index in July 2026?
A: The actual value was 97.4.
Q: How did the July 2026 index compare to the previous month?
A: It increased from 95.3 in June to 97.4 in July.
Market Sentiment: Neutral - The increase is positive, but the overall sentiment remains cautious.
U.S. Central Command said American forces used unmanned surface vessels in combat for the first time during an attack on Iran’s Bandar Abbas Naval Base on Sunday, July 12.
According to CENTCOM, three Corsair one-way attack vessels struck an Iranian submarine and a ship-maintenance facility. The operation was publicly announced on Monday, July 13—not during the early hours of Tuesday as initially reported in some accounts.
The Corsair vessels are autonomous surface platforms produced by U.S. defence-technology company Saronic. The manufacturer says its vessels combine artificial intelligence, mission-level autonomy, adaptive navigation and sensor-based target tracking. However, CENTCOM has not publicly disclosed how much of the strike was controlled autonomously by artificial intelligence and how much involved direct human supervision.
Reports describing the vessels as difficult to detect are plausible because of their relatively small size and unmanned design, but no official assessment confirming that they successfully evaded Iranian detection has been released.
Importance: ★★★ High
The first combat deployment of U.S. attack sea drones highlights the growing military role of autonomous and AI-enabled weapons. It could strengthen investor interest in defence-technology, maritime-autonomy, sensors and artificial-intelligence companies.
The attack also increases risks to Iranian naval infrastructure near the Strait of Hormuz. Continued maritime escalation is supportive for crude-oil prices and shipping costs, while increasing pressure on regional equities and global risk sentiment.
When did the United States first use sea drones in combat against Iran?
CENTCOM said the attack occurred on Sunday, July 12, 2026, and was publicly announced on Monday, July 13.
Which targets did the U.S. sea drones strike in Iran?
CENTCOM said three Corsair unmanned surface vessels struck an Iranian submarine and a ship-maintenance facility at Bandar Abbas Naval Base.
Were the U.S. attack vessels guided by artificial intelligence?
The manufacturer says Corsair vessels use artificial intelligence and autonomous navigation. However, the U.S. military has not disclosed the precise role AI played during the attack.
Were the U.S. sea drones undetectable to Iranian forces?
That has not been officially confirmed. Their small size and autonomous design may make detection more difficult, but no independent assessment has established that Iranian systems failed to identify them.
Sources: U.S. Central Command; Associated Press; Reuters; The Wall Street Journal; Saronic Technologies