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U.S. mortgage applications surged 7.1% in the latest week, rebounding strongly after a 0.3% decline previously, as the average 30-year mortgage rate fell to 6.30% from 6.37%. The MBA Purchase Index rose to 164.3 from 157.3, while the Refinance Index climbed to 1,327.8 from 1,214.7, signaling renewed borrower activity amid easing financing costs. The overall Mortgage Market Index advanced to 338.7, indicating improving sentiment in the housing market as affordability conditions slightly improve.

Market impact: Mildly positive for USD; stronger mortgage demand supports housing sector stabilization and broader consumer confidence, reinforcing near-term economic resilience.

U.S. pending home sales were unchanged in September, showing 0.0% growth versus expectations of a 1.6% increase and following a 4.2% jump in August. The Pending Home Sales Index held steady at 74.8, indicating stable but subdued contract activity. The flat reading suggests that higher mortgage rates and limited housing inventory continue to restrain buyer demand despite recent signs of stabilization in prices.

Market impact: Mildly negative for USD; stagnant home sales signal softer housing demand, reinforcing expectations for slower economic momentum into Q4.

The Federal Reserve lowered its benchmark interest rate to 4.00% from 4.25%, in line with market forecasts. The decision marks the first policy easing since the tightening cycle began, as the Fed moves to support economic growth amid cooling inflation and signs of slowing labor demand. Policymakers emphasized a “data-dependent” approach going forward, indicating that further cuts will hinge on sustained disinflation and stable employment trends.

Market impact: Mildly negative for USD; the rate cut reinforces a dovish shift in Fed policy, weighing on yields while boosting risk assets and equity sentiment.

U.S. consumer credit rose by $13.09 billion in September, surpassing expectations of $10.40 billion. The increase reflects continued reliance on credit cards and personal loans, as households maintain spending despite higher borrowing costs. The data suggest steady consumer activity but point to growing debt burdens amid tight financial conditions.

Market impact: Neutral for USD; moderate credit expansion supports consumption but adds caution regarding household leverage.

Yields on U.S. Treasury bills and notes were mostly steady at the latest auctions. The 3-month bill yield slipped to 3.780% from 3.815%, while the 6-month bill eased to 3.690% from 3.700%. The 3-year note yield was virtually unchanged at 3.579% versus 3.576% previously. The results suggest continued healthy demand for short-dated government debt amid stable rate expectations and easing inflation pressures.

Market impact: Neutral for USD; steady auction results indicate balanced investor sentiment and limited shifts in near-term rate outlook.

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell to 98.2 in October from 98.8 in September, slightly below expectations of 98.5. The decline reflects persistent concerns over inflation, labor shortages, and weaker sales outlooks among small firms. While sentiment remains historically resilient, businesses continue to face cost pressures that constrain hiring and investment plans.

Market impact: Mildly negative for USD; softer business sentiment underscores moderation in economic momentum and may reinforce expectations of stable Fed policy.

Yields on U.S. Treasury bills declined slightly this week, signaling stable demand for short-term government debt. The 4-week bill auction cleared at 3.91%, down from 3.945%, while the 8-week bill yield eased to 3.89% from 3.90%. The results reflect continued investor confidence in short-duration Treasuries amid expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain its current policy stance through year-end.

Market impact: Neutral for USD; steady auction demand reinforces stable funding conditions and anchored short-term rate expectations.

The Federal Reserve’s balance sheet edged down to $6.587 trillion from $6.590 trillion, continuing its gradual reduction under quantitative tightening. Meanwhile, reserve balances with Federal Reserve Banks fell to $2.828 trillion from $2.930 trillion, reflecting reduced liquidity in the banking system as the Fed maintains elevated policy rates and ongoing balance sheet runoff. The data underline the central bank’s commitment to shrinking excess reserves while monitoring market liquidity conditions.

Market impact: Neutral for USD; steady balance sheet reduction aligns with the Fed’s tightening stance but has limited immediate effect on market pricing.

The U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI declined to 48.7 in October, below the estimated 49.4 and the previous 49.1, signaling a renewed contraction in factory activity. New orders improved slightly to 49.4 from 48.9, while employment weakened further to 46.0 from 45.3, indicating continued labor softness. Price pressures also eased, with the ISM Prices Index falling to 58.0 from 61.9.

Separately, the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI rose modestly to 52.5 from 52.2, suggesting better performance among larger firms compared to smaller manufacturers. Overall, the data point to a mixed picture — modest stabilization in private surveys but lingering weakness in the broader manufacturing landscape.

Market impact: Mildly negative for USD; softer ISM readings reinforce expectations of a prolonged policy pause by the Federal Reserve.

U.S. mortgage activity slowed last week, with MBA mortgage applications down 1.9% after a 7.1% surge previously, as the 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose slightly to 6.31% from 6.30%. The Purchase Index slipped to 163.3 from 164.3, while the Refinance Index declined to 1,290.8 from 1,327.8, signaling weaker demand amid elevated borrowing costs. The overall Mortgage Market Index dropped to 332.3 from 338.7, underscoring continued pressure on the U.S. housing market despite modest rate stability.

Market impact: Neutral to mildly negative for USD; softer mortgage activity reflects persistent strain in housing affordability and cooling household demand.

The ADP Nonfarm Employment report showed that U.S. private payrolls increased by 42,000 in October, modestly above expectations of 32,000 and rebounding from a 29,000 decline in September. Job gains were led by the services sector—particularly in healthcare and leisure—while manufacturing employment continued to contract. The data suggest that hiring remains subdued but stable, consistent with a cooling labor market.

Market impact: Neutral for USD; modest job growth supports a soft-landing narrative without shifting Fed rate expectations.

The U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI climbed to 52.4 in October, beating expectations of 50.7 and up from 50.0 in September, signaling a stronger rebound in the services economy. Business activity surged to 54.3 from 49.9, while new orders rose sharply to 56.2 from 50.4, pointing to solid demand recovery. However, employment remained soft at 48.2, and prices paid increased to 70.0, indicating persistent inflationary pressures in service industries.

Market impact: Positive for USD; stronger services momentum and firm price pressures reinforce expectations that the Fed will maintain a cautious policy stance.