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The latest U.S. inflation data for November 2024 shows stability across key metrics, aligning with market expectations. Core CPI rose by 0.3% month-on-month, maintaining the same pace as October, and increased by 3.3% year-on-year, in line with expectations and unchanged from previous month. Headline CPI also grew by 0.3% month-on-month, slightly above October's 0.2% rise, and by 2.7% year-on-year, marginally higher than October's 2.6%. The data indicates steady inflation trends, with no immediate surprises for monetary policy outlooks.

The US economy added 227K nonfarm payrolls in November, exceeding expectations and rebounding strongly from October's revised 36K gain, hampered by hurricanes and strikes. The unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.2%, aligning with forecasts but higher than October's 4.1%. Average hourly earnings held steady at 0.4%, beating the 0.3% estimate, indicating robust wage growth alongside job market recovery.

The trade deficit narrowed to-$73.8B, beating the forecast of-$75.7B and improving significantly from September's 83.8 B. Exports dipped slightly to $265.7B from $267.9B, while imports saw a sharper decline to $339.6B from $352.3B, reflecting decreased demand for foreign goods and services amidst global economic uncertainties.

Initial jobless claims rose to 224K, exceeding the forecast of 215K and marking an increase from the previous 215K, signaling slight labor market softening. However, continuing claims declined to 1,871K (forecast: 1,910K, prior: 1,896K), showing resilience as fewer individuals remain on unemployment benefits. The 4-week average edged up to 218.25K, suggesting a modest upward trend but remaining historically low overall.

While the uptick in initial claims might hint at localized disruptions or specific sector challenges, the broader trend points to a labor market that continues to display resilience. The lower continuing claims bolster this view, suggesting that many workers find reemployment relatively quickly.

Markets will likely interpret these figures as indicative of a steady economic environment, aligning with expectations for moderate growth. However, further increases in initial claims could warrant attention, especially if accompanied by sustained growth in continuing claims in future weeks.

Brian Thompson, CEO of UnitedHealth’s insurance division, was tragically shot and killed in a targeted attack outside a Manhattan hotel early Wednesday morning.

The incident occurred near a Hilton hotel on Sixth Avenue around 6:45 a.m. Police reported that Thompson, a Minnesota resident in New York for an investor meeting, was ambushed by a suspect who shot him in the back and leg before fleeing the scene.

Despite being rushed to the hospital in critical condition, Thompson was later pronounced dead. A manhunt is underway for the suspect, as investigators work to determine the motive behind the attack.

U.S. business activity expanded in November but at a slower pace than anticipated, according to S&P Global:

• Composite PMI: Rose to 54.9, below the forecast of 55.3 but higher than October's 54.1.
• Services PMI: Increased to 56.1, under the expected 57.0 but above the prior 55.0.
• Manufacturing PMI: Increased by 49.7, above both 48.8 estimates and 48.5 recorded in October. 

While growth continued in both services and overall business activity, the softer-than-expected readings suggest tempered momentum heading into year-end.

U.S. factory orders showed a modest rebound in October, rising 0.2% MoM, slightly below the forecast of 0.3% but improving from September's -0.2% decline. Excluding transportation, factory orders increased by 0.1%, the same pace as September.

The data reflects a cautious recovery in manufacturing activity, supported by stable demand in core sectors. However, broader industrial challenges persist, keeping growth subdued.

The U.S. labor market remained robust in October 2024, with JOLTS job openings rising to 7.744 million, surpassing both the forecast of 7.510 million and the previous month's 7.372 million.

This increase reflects sustained demand for workers despite higher interest rates, underscoring the labor market's resilience. Strong job openings signal confidence among employers and are likely to support consumer spending heading into the holiday season.

The data may influence the Federal Reserve's policy decisions, as a tight labor market could add upward pressure on wages and inflation.

The Redbook YoY retail sales growth for December 2024 came in at 7.4%, significantly higher than the previous figure of 4.9%. This strong performance reflects robust consumer spending during the holiday season, driven by improved labor market conditions and sustained wage growth.

The data underscores resilience in consumer demand, a key driver of the US economy, despite broader macroeconomic uncertainties. Retailers likely benefited from holiday promotions and higher discretionary spending.

The US economy expanded by 2.8% in Q3 2024, matching expectations but slightly below the prior quarter's 3.0% growth, signaling steady economic momentum. The GDP Price Index rose by 1.9%, slightly above forecasts of 1.8%, but well below the previous 2.5%, indicating easing price pressures. GDP sales grew by a robust 3.0%, reflecting strong underlying demand, compared to 1.9% in the prior quarter. Meanwhile, the October goods trade balance improved to -$99.08 billion, better than the anticipated -$102.20 billion, highlighting a narrowing trade deficit. Overall, these figures suggest resilience in the US economy amidst moderated inflation.

Initial jobless claims for the week ended December 22end, came in at 213K, slightly below the 215K applied in the prior week, indicating the strength of the labor market. The four-week moving average, a smoother measure of trends, declined to 217.00K from the previous 218.25 K. Continuing jobless claims on the other hand rose marginally to 1.907 million, up from 1.898 million but slightly below the expected 1.910 million. These figures reflect a labor market that remains resilient despite broader economic uncertainties.

Durable goods orders increased modestly by 0.2% in October, recovering from a revised decline of 0.4% in the prior month but falling short of the expected 0.8% decrease. Orders excluding defense rose by 0.4%, showing resilience despite broader economic headwinds. However, core durable goods orders, a key measure of business investment, edged up by just 0.1%, missing the forecast of 0.2%. Non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft, a closely watched proxy for business spending plans, slipped by 0.2% after rising 0.3%, suggesting mixed momentum in capital investment.