EconoTicker

The Federal Reserve’s balance sheet declined to $6.709 trillion, down from $6.727 trillion the previous week, reflecting ongoing quantitative tightening efforts. Meanwhile, reserve balances with Federal Reserve Banks fell significantly to $3.000 trillion, from $3.209 trillion, signaling tighter liquidity conditions in the banking system.

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model sharply lowered its estimate for Q2 2025 GDP growth to 1.1%, down from the previous 2.4%. The revision reflects weaker-than-expected data on consumer spending, manufacturing, and labor, signaling a potential slowdown in U.S. economic momentum heading into mid-year.

In the latest auctions, the 4-week Treasury bill yield rose slightly to 4.240%, up from 4.220%, indicating marginally stronger investor demand for ultra-short-term debt. Meanwhile, the 8-week bill yield edged down to 4.220% from 4.225%, reflecting stable sentiment in short-term funding markets amid evolving expectations around Federal Reserve policy.

The ISM Manufacturing PMI dipped slightly to 48.7 in April from 49.0 in March, staying below the 50 threshold that signals contraction but above expectations of 48.0. However, underlying components showed signs of improvement:

• The New Orders Index rose to 47.2 from 45.2,
• Employment improved to 46.5 from 44.7,
• While Prices Paid eased slightly to 69.8, it still indicates elevated cost pressures.

Overall, the data suggests the manufacturing sector remains weak but may be stabilizing.

U.S. construction spending fell 0.5% MoM in March, missing expectations of a 0.2% increase and reversing February’s 0.6% gain. This marks the first monthly decline since July 2023, reflecting a pullback in both residential and non-residential investment amid higher borrowing costs and project delays.

The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for the U.S. came in at 50.2 in April, matching the prior month’s reading but slightly below the preliminary estimate of 50.7. The index remains just above the 50 threshold, indicating modest expansion in factory activity, though momentum appears to be stabilizing amid mixed demand signals and ongoing cost pressures.

U.S. labor market data for April pointed to rising pressure, with Challenger job cuts totaling 105,441, up 62.7% YoY, though sharply lower than March’s 275,240. Initial jobless claims rose to 241K, the highest in several weeks and above the expected 224K. The 4-week average climbed to 226K, while continuing claims increased to 1.916 million, indicating some strain in the job market as layoffs gradually rise and re-employment takes longer.

TotalEnergies SE ADR (TTE) reported Q1 2025 earnings of $1.83 per share, below the expected $2.03. However, revenue came in strong at $47.9 billion, well above the $44.28 billion forecast. Total assets stood at $128.46 billion, supported by stable energy prices and solid performance in its LNG and renewables segments.

Airbus Group NV (EADSY) reported Q1 2025 earnings of $0.176 per share, topping the expected $0.1538. Revenue came in significantly higher at $15.39 billion compared to the $13.49 billion estimate. Total assets stood at $131.31 billion, reflecting solid aircraft deliveries and rising demand in global aviation.

Caterpillar (CAT) reported Q1 2025 earnings of $4.25 per share, slightly below the expected $4.35. Revenue also came in lower than forecast at $14.25 billion versus $14.58 billion. With total assets at $147.81 billion, the industrial giant faces headwinds from moderating construction demand and cost pressures.

Qualcomm (QCOM) reported Q1 2025 earnings of $2.85 per share, slightly above the expected $2.80. Revenue also beat forecasts, reaching $10.84 billion versus the $10.55 billion estimate. With total assets at $162.91 billion, Qualcomm continues to benefit from demand in mobile chips and emerging AI-powered devices.

Meta Platforms (META) reported Q1 2025 earnings of $6.43 per share, well above the expected $5.24. Revenue also surpassed expectations at $42.31 billion versus $41.48 billion. With total assets reaching $1.38 trillion, Meta continues to benefit from strong ad revenues, AI-driven engagement, and growth across its platform ecosystem.