EconoTicker

Initial jobless claims slipped to 224K (consensus 225K; prior 227K). Continuing claims fell to 1.953M (vs 1.960M expected; 1.968M prior). The 4-week average ticked up to 221.75K from 221.00K, showing layoffs remain low but not improving materially. Overall, the mix points to a labor market cooling gradually rather than cracking, with hiring still absorbing workers even as growth moderates.

What it is: Weekly filings for unemployment benefits; continuing claims track those still receiving aid.

Possible effect: The slightly softer figures support a soft-landing narrative, keeping the Fed inclined to hold rates while monitoring inflation. Yields and the dollar may be little changed; equities could take comfort from contained layoff risk.

The US federal budget recorded a $291.0B deficit in July, missing expectations for $206.7B and reversing June’s $27.0B surplus. The shortfall reflects seasonal spending patterns and still-elevated outlays, including interest costs, while revenues softened compared with a year earlier. The monthly Treasury statement offers a timely read on the government’s fiscal stance as growth cools and inflation moderates.

What it is:

The Federal Budget Balance tracks the government’s monthly gap between receipts and outlays; deficits are financed by issuing Treasury securities.

Possible effect:

A larger-than-forecast deficit implies heavier issuance ahead, which can pressure longer-dated Treasury yields and tighten financial conditions. It may also renew debate over fiscal sustainability and the timing of future consolidation, even as near-term spending continues to underpin parts of the economy.

The Redbook same-store sales index rose 5.7% YoY in the latest week, easing from 6.5% previously. The deceleration suggests back-to-school traffic isn’t fully offsetting softer discretionary spending, even as essentials hold up. Retailers continue to lean on promotions to protect volumes and clear inventories.

What it is: Redbook tracks weekly same-store sales at large U.S. chain retailers, offering a high-frequency read on consumer demand.

Possible effect: Softer sales momentum supports the disinflation narrative and could temper Treasury yields. Retail shares may see selective pressure, while defensive names and value-oriented discounters could outperform if consumers keep trading down.

Mortgage rates eased, with the MBA 30-year fixed average down to 6.67% from 6.77%. Total mortgage applications jumped 10.9% week-on-week. The Purchase Index rose to 160.2 (from 158.0), the Refinance Index climbed to 956.2 (from 777.4), and the Mortgage Market Index increased to 281.1 (from 253.4). The drop in rates unlocked pent-up refinancing demand and nudged purchase activity higher despite ongoing affordability headwinds.

What it is:

MBA’s weekly survey tracks average mortgage rates and application volumes across US lenders.

Possible effect:

Softer rates could stabilize housing turnover, support homebuilder sentiment, and firm MBS demand. But with prices and inventories still tight, the recovery may be gradual; a sustained upswing would signal easier financial conditions even without policy rate moves.

In July, U.S. CPI rose 0.2% MoM and 2.7% YoY, matching forecasts, while the Core CPI—which excludes food and energy—rose 0.3% MoM and 3.1% YoY, slightly above June’s 3.0%. The Core CPI Index reached 328.66. Real earnings grew 0.4% MoM, reversing the prior month’s 0.3% drop, signaling improved consumer purchasing power despite sticky core price pressures.

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose to 100.3 in July, up from 98.6 in June and beating expectations of 98.9. This marks the highest reading in a year, signaling improving confidence among small business owners despite lingering economic uncertainties.

Gilead Sciences (GILD) reported earnings per share of $2.01, above analysts’ estimates of $1.96. Revenue came in at $7.1 B, topping the forecast of $6.97 B. The company’s market capitalization stands at $148.16 B, with results supported by strong demand for its HIV and oncology treatments.

Siemens ADR (SIEGY) reported earnings per share of $1.48, exceeding forecasts of $1.35. Revenue came in at $22.52 B, slightly below the expected $22.59 B. The company’s market capitalization stands at $210.81 B, supported by strong demand in industrial automation and digital industries.

Eli Lilly (LLY) reported Q2 earnings per share of $6.31, well above the $5.59 expected. Revenue came in at $15.56 B, exceeding forecasts of $14.67 B, driven by robust demand for its diabetes and weight-loss drugs. The company’s market capitalization now stands at $561.67 B.

The Treasury’s 30-year bond auction delivered a yield of 4.813%, down from 4.889% at the previous sale, reflecting firm demand for long-dated debt. Meanwhile, June’s consumer credit expanded by $7.37 billion, just shy of the $7.40 billion forecast but well above May’s $5.13 billion, driven by strong auto and credit-card borrowing.

What it is: The 30-year yield sets the benchmark for mortgage rates and corporate debt costs over three decades; consumer credit measures net new borrowing by households.

Possible effect: Lower long-term yields can ease mortgage and corporate financing costs, while steady credit growth signals resilient household spending, supporting economic momentum but also warranting vigilance on rising debt loads.

The Atlanta Federal Reserve’s GDPNow model maintained its third-quarter real GDP growth estimate at 2.5%, unchanged from its prior update and above the 2.1% consensus. The “nowcast” reflects incoming data on consumer spending, housing starts, industrial output, and trade, indicating that economic momentum is holding firm. GDPNow updates daily and helps markets gauge growth between official releases.

What it is: GDPNow is a real-time forecasting tool that uses the latest economic indicators to estimate quarterly GDP growth.

Possible effect: A sustained 2.5% forecast may temper expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, as solid growth reduces the urgency for additional monetary easing, while supporting confidence in equities and Treasury yields.

In recent Treasury bill auctions, the four-week bill sold at 4.300%, up from 4.290%, while the eight-week bill yielded 4.235%, down from 4.290%. The increase in the four-week rate reflects slightly weaker demand for the shortest maturity, as investors adjust positioning ahead of key economic data. Conversely, stronger bids for the eight-week bill pushed its yield lower, indicating patience among money-market participants locking in returns over a slightly longer horizon. Treasury bill yields set the baseline for short-term funding costs; these mixed moves suggest nuanced views on rate cuts and economic momentum, with markets balancing near-term cash needs against expectations for Federal Reserve policy shifts.