UK house prices fell by 0.5% month-over-month in March, according to the Halifax House Price Index, missing expectations of a 0.2% rise and reversing the 0.2% decline seen in February. On a yearly basis, however, prices remained stable with a 2.8% increase, indicating moderate but consistent growth in the housing market.
The S&P Global Services PMI rose to 52.5 in March, up from 51.0 in February, indicating improved service sector activity but falling short of the 53.2 market estimate. Meanwhile, the Composite PMI increased to 51.1, compared to 50.5 previously, also missing expectations of 52.0, suggesting continued expansion but at a softer-than-expected pace.
The Bank of England's latest data shows a slowdown in consumer and mortgage lending for February. Consumer credit fell to £1.358B, down from the previous £1.701B, suggesting weaker borrowing appetite. The M3 money supply edged up to £3,119.0B, showing slight monetary expansion, while M4 money supply growth slowed to 0.2% from 1.1% in January. Mortgage approvals came in at 65.48K, slightly below expectations of 66.00K, indicating a cautious housing market. Additionally, mortgage lending dropped to £3.29B from £4.23B, and net lending to individuals declined to £4.6B, suggesting a pullback in household borrowing amid economic uncertainty.
The UK's GDP (YoY) for Q4 grew by 1.5%, slightly above expectations of 1.4% and notably higher than Q3’s 0.9% expansion, indicating modest economic resilience. On a quarterly basis, GDP increased by 0.1%, in line with forecasts and slightly improving from the previous quarter’s stagnation (0.0%).
However, the Current Account Deficit widened to -£21.0B in Q4, significantly surpassing the expected -£16.7B and the prior -£12.5B, reflecting stronger capital outflows and trade imbalances. The Trade Balance for January stood at -£17.85B, exceeding the forecasted -£16.80B, while the Non-EU Trade Deficit narrowed to -£7.07B from the previous -£8.04B.
These figures highlight ongoing economic challenges, with sluggish growth and external imbalances weighing on the UK economy.
The UK's Retail Sales (MoM) for February rose by 1.0%, significantly beating the expected -0.3% decline, though slightly below January's 1.4% increase. On an annual basis, Retail Sales (YoY) climbed 2.2%, surpassing the forecasted 0.5% and the previous 0.6% growth. Core Retail Sales (excluding fuel) also rose by 1.0% MoM, well above the anticipated -0.5% drop, though lower than January's 1.6% gain. Year-over-year, Core Retail Sales expanded by 2.2%, exceeding the projected 0.4% growth. The strong retail performance suggests resilient consumer spending, which may support broader economic stability despite inflationary pressures and higher interest rates.
The UK's Business Investment (QoQ) for Q4 contracted by 1.9%, a smaller decline than the expected -3.2%, but a sharp reversal from the 2.2% growth recorded in Q3. On an annual basis, Business Investment (YoY) increased by 1.8%, outperforming the forecasted -0.7%, though still significantly lower than the 5.6% growth seen in the previous quarter. The decline in quarterly investment reflects ongoing economic uncertainty, tighter financial conditions, and cautious corporate spending, which could weigh on the UK's overall economic growth outlook.
The UK's Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% MoM in February, slightly below the expected 0.5%. On a yearly basis, inflation slowed to 2.8%, down from 3.0% in January, marking further progress toward the Bank of England’s 2% target.
The UK’s S&P Global Manufacturing PMI dropped to 44.6 in March, missing expectations of 47.3 and declining from 46.9, signaling a deeper contraction. Meanwhile, the Services PMI surged to 53.2, well above the forecast of 51.2 and February’s 51.0, driving the Composite PMI up to 52.0 from 50.5, indicating stronger overall economic expansion.
The CBI Industrial Trends Orders index fell to -29 in March, slightly better than the expected -30 but down from -28 in February. The data signals continued weakness in the UK manufacturing sector amid subdued demand.
The Bank of England (BoE) kept its interest rate steady at 4.50% in March, as expected. However, a hawkish tilt emerged within the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), with one member voting for a rate cut, down from two expected voat. Eight members (more than 7 expected) supported holding rates, while no votes were cast for a hike. The shift suggests less support for near-term easing amid weak economic conditions.
The UK’s Average Earnings Index, including bonuses, held steady at 5.8% in January, in line with expectations but lower than December’s 6.1%. However, labor market pressures intensified as February's Claimant Count Change jumped to 44.2K, significantly exceeding the expected 7.9K and the previous 2.8 K. Meanwhile, employment saw a strong rise, with a 144K increase in the three-month period ending in January, surpassing forecasts of 95 K. Unemployment Rate in January was steady at 4.4% as estimated.
Industrial production in the UK fell 0.9% MoM in January, significantly below the expected -0.1%, while YoY output contracted 1.5%, reflecting continued weakness in the sector. Manufacturing production also declined, down 1.1% MoM versus a flat forecast, and 1.5% YoY, missing expectations. The data signals ongoing struggles in the UK’s industrial sector amid broader economic uncertainty.