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UK House Price Index (HPI) rose 2.5% y/y, beating expectations of 1.8% and up from 1.7% previously. The upside surprise signals firmer momentum in the housing market, likely helped by easing rate headwinds and improving buyer confidence at the margin—though affordability constraints remain a limiting factor.

Market impact: Mildly GBP-supportive and hawkish-leaning at the margin via stronger domestic-demand optics; supportive for UK housing-linked equities and banks, while reinforcing sensitivity of the rates path to broader inflation and wages data.

UK RPI inflation accelerated in December, with RPI (y/y) rising to 4.2% (vs 4.1% expected, 3.8% prior) and RPI (m/m) at 0.7% (vs 0.5% expected, -0.4% prior). Core RPI also firmed, with core RPI (y/y) at 4.1% (vs 3.7% prior) and core RPI (m/m) at 0.7% (vs -0.5% prior). The print reinforces that UK retail-price inflation remains sticky, even if policy focus stays primarily on CPI/CPIH.

Market impact: Mildly hawkish for UK inflation perceptions and index-linked gilts; GBP reaction may be limited, but stronger RPI can lift inflation-sensitive pricing and contract indexation expectations at the margin.

UK producer-price data pointed to easing pipeline pressure in December. PPI input prices fell -0.2% m/m (vs -0.1% expected, after +0.5% prior) and slowed to +0.8% y/y (vs +1.1% expected). At the factory gate, PPI output was flat at 0.0% m/m (vs +0.1% expected, +0.1% prior) with output inflation holding at 3.4% y/y. Core measures were softer: core output PPI fell -0.1% m/m (vs +0.1%) and core output PPI eased to 3.2% y/y (from 3.6%). Overall, the PPI mix suggests goods-price pressure is cooling even as consumer inflation remains sticky.

Market impact: Mildly dovish for BoE pricing at the margin (pipeline disinflation), potentially supportive for gilts; GBP impact is usually limited, but softer PPI can temper upside inflation fears if echoed in services and wage data.

UK headline CPI rose to 3.4% y/y in December, above 3.3% expected and up from 3.2% previously. On the month, CPI printed +0.4% m/m (as expected), reversing -0.2% prior. Core CPI held at 3.2% y/y (below the 3.3% forecast) with +0.3% m/m (in line). The broader CPIH measure also ticked up to 3.6% y/y (vs 3.5% expected). The mix points to renewed stickiness in headline inflation even as core pressures are not accelerating.

Market impact: Slightly hawkish for BoE pricing via the headline upside (supportive for GBP, upward pressure on gilts), but the softer-than-expected core print may temper a full repricing; markets will likely focus on whether services inflation and wages validate this re-acceleration.

UK labour data showed a sharp upside surprise in employment, with employment change (3M/3M) rising 82K versus 27K expected (and -16K prior). At the same time, the claimant count increased 17.9K (vs 15.6K expected, after -3.3K previously), while the unemployment rate held at 5.1% (in line). Wage growth eased a touch: average earnings incl. bonus slowed to 4.7% y/y (vs 4.6% expected, 4.8% prior) and ex-bonus held at 4.5% y/y (in line, vs 4.6% prior). The mix points to a still-tight labour market, but with wage pressures gradually cooling—supportive for a “sticky but easing” inflation narrative.

Market impact: Slightly hawkish on the employment strength but dovish-leaning on softer wage momentum; overall, this is GBP-neutral to mildly supportive, while gilts may stay supported if markets focus on easing pay growth. BoE pricing likely remains sensitive to the wage trend over the next prints.

The UK’s Rightmove House Price Index showed a sharp January rebound, with asking prices up 2.8% m/m (prior -1.8%) and up 0.5% y/y (prior -0.6%). The swing back into positive annual territory suggests sellers’ pricing power improved after late-2025 softness, even as a higher stock of homes for sale keeps competition elevated and caps how far pricing can run without stronger demand follow-through.

Market impact: Mildly GBP-supportive at the margin via a firmer housing signal, but also rate-cut negative if housing resilience feeds sticky services inflation expectations; UK homebuilders and retail banks may see a near-term sentiment lift, with gilt direction hinging on whether the move translates into sustained activity.

The UK’s Thomson Reuters/Ipsos PCSI climbed to 49.2 in January (from 47.3), signaling a notable pickup in consumer sentiment at the start of the year. While the index remains just below the 50 threshold—implying households are still cautious—the rebound suggests improving confidence, potentially helped by easing inflation pressure, better real-income expectations, or a less adverse interest-rate outlook.

Market impact: Mildly GBP-supportive at the margin and constructive for UK domestic cyclicals (retail, leisure) if confidence translates into spending. On its own, it’s rarely a major market mover, but it can reinforce a “stabilizing demand” narrative alongside retail sales and services activity.

UK activity data for November showed a renewed drag from construction, partially offset by steady services growth. Construction output fell -1.3% m/m (-0.3% expected, -1.2% prior) and -1.1% y/y (0.1% expected, 0.9% prior), indicating the sector remains under pressure and is now contracting versus last year. By contrast, the Index of Services rose 0.2% (0.0% expected, 0.1% prior), suggesting the UK’s dominant services engine is still expanding modestly even as rate-sensitive construction stays weak.

Market impact: Mildly GBP-negative at the margin given the growth mix, but the firmer services print can help limit downside. For rates, weaker construction is gilt-supportive, though the broader policy signal will still be driven by inflation and wage dynamics.

The UK’s trade balance showed a larger-than-expected deficit in November, with the gap at -£23.71B (-£20.30B expected, -£24.17B prior). While still slightly better than the previous month, missing expectations suggests net trade was a softer contributor to growth than markets assumed. The non-EU trade balance printed -£11.46B, an improvement from -£11.81B previously, implying the drag was more concentrated elsewhere (including EU flows) despite modest progress in non-EU trade.

Market impact: Mildly GBP-negative at the margin, as a wider deficit can weigh on the external balance narrative. Impact is usually limited unless it signals a persistent deterioration or coincides with weaker growth momentum.

UK production data surprised sharply to the upside in November, pointing to a meaningful rebound in the industrial base. Manufacturing production jumped 2.1% m/m (0.4% expected, 0.4% prior), while industrial production rose 1.1% m/m (0.2% expected, 1.3% prior). On an annual basis, both measures moved decisively into positive territory: industrial output increased 2.3% y/y (-0.4% expected, 0.4% prior) and manufacturing rose 2.1% y/y (-0.3% expected, -0.2% prior). The mix suggests November’s output strength was not just a one-off monthly pop, but also strong enough to lift year-on-year comparisons—supporting the broader picture of UK activity stabilizing into year-end.

Market impact: Mildly GBP-supportive and gilt-bearish at the margin, as stronger real-economy data can reduce urgency for near-term BoE easing. UK cyclicals may benefit, though follow-through will depend on whether demand and orders confirm the rebound.

UK output data beat expectations in November, pointing to better near-term momentum. Monthly GDP rose 0.3% m/m (0.1% expected, -0.1% prior), while GDP increased 1.4% y/y (1.1% expected, 1.1% prior). The rolling 3M/3M measure edged up 0.1% (vs -0.2% expected, 0.0% prior), suggesting the economy is stabilizing rather than slipping into contraction, even if growth remains modest.

Market impact: Mildly GBP-supportive and gilt-bearish at the margin (stronger activity can reduce near-term easing expectations), while UK equities may take it as supportive for cyclicals. Follow-through will depend on inflation and wage data shaping the BoE’s reaction function.

The UK’s 10-year Treasury gilt auction cleared at 4.456%, down from 4.613% previously, signaling a lower stop-out yield and a firmer tone for duration demand at the long end. The move suggests investors were willing to accept less compensation for holding UK rates risk—consistent with either improved risk appetite for gilts, a softer growth/inflation outlook, or positioning ahead of key UK macro and Bank of England signals.

Market impact: Generally gilt-supportive and mildly GBP-negative at the margin if markets interpret it as easing rate pressure and a more dovish path. UK equities can take it as neutral-to-positive via lower discount rates, especially for rate-sensitive sectors. بخش‌های حساس به نرخ بهره.