EconoTicker

Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said they would not allow “one litre of oil” to leave the Middle East if U.S. and Israeli attacks continue, escalating concerns over energy flows from the region. Reuters reported that President Donald Trump responded by warning the U.S. would hit Iran “much harder” if Tehran tried to block oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz.

The confrontation came as markets remained sensitive to signs that Iran’s leadership was rallying behind new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei and was not preparing to back down quickly. Reuters also noted that Trump said the conflict could end well before the initial four-week timeframe he had outlined, even though he has not defined what victory would look like. Israel says it aims to topple Iran’s clerical system, while U.S. officials mainly frame Washington’s objective as destroying Iran’s missile and nuclear capabilities.

Source: Reuters.

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi condemned Iran’s targeting of Arab countries, warning that continued military escalation could push the region into chaos.

In a phone call with French President Emmanuel Macron, Sisi said Persian Gulf countries and other regional actors have been working to de-escalate and pursue a diplomatic path, and argued Iran’s strikes run against those efforts.

Source: Egyptian Presidency; Egypt Today.

Political and military activity is intensifying in the Eastern Mediterranean as the wider U.S.–Israel war with Iran continues to ripple across the region.

French President Emmanuel Macron arrived in Cyprus to signal European solidarity after recent missile/drone threats, saying an attack on Cyprus should be treated as an attack on Europe and outlining a broader French maritime posture that includes support missions and defensive escort operations.

In parallel, Turkey said it is reinforcing Northern Cyprus by deploying six F-16 fighter jets and air-defense systems, framing the move as a security measure for the Turkish Cypriot community amid rising regional tensions.

Source: Reuters; Associated Press; Anadolu Agency.

French President Emmanuel Macron said an attack on Cyprus should be treated as an attack on Europe, as he visited the EU member state after recent missile and drone strikes.

Macron announced France will deploy two frigates to the Red Sea under the EU’s Operation Aspides—a defensive escort mission aimed at protecting shipping—while also preparing a broader, “purely defensive” naval plan to escort ships and help reopen the Strait of Hormuz once the conflict cools.

He said France’s regional posture across the Eastern Mediterranean, the Red Sea, and near the Strait of Hormuz will include eight frigates, two amphibious helicopter carriers, and the aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle (reported as operating off Crete).

Source: Le Monde; Reuters; Council of the EU; AP News.

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that “when it comes to hostage-taking, there has been no worse offender in the world than the ayatollahs’ regime in Tehran,” speaking at a flag-raising ceremony marking U.S. Hostage and Wrongfully Detained Americans Day.

Rubio added that Iran’s leadership is among the world’s largest sponsors of terrorism and one of the worst hostage-takers, pledging the U.S. will continue holding Tehran—and any other regime involved—accountable for such conduct.

Source: Iran International; Fox News (live event coverage).

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Ukraine has received 11 requests—from countries neighboring Iran, European states, and the United States—for help countering Iranian-made Shahed drones now being used across the Middle East and the Persian Gulf region.

He said partners are seeking Ukrainian experience and support, such as interceptor systems, electronic warfare, and training, adding that Kyiv has already responded to some requests with “concrete decisions” and “special support.” At the same time, authorities assess what more can be provided without weakening Ukraine’s own defenses.

Source: Reuters.

Air-raid sirens sounded in Bahrain, with authorities urging residents to stay calm and move to the nearest safe place, as regional missile-and-drone tensions persist.

In Qatar, officials elevated the security threat level, and a Reuters witness reported hearing multiple explosions over Doha, with no immediate official details on damage or casualties at the time of the report.

Source: Reuters; Al Arabiya; Anadolu Agency.

Turkey’s Ministry of National Defence said a ballistic missile/munition launched from Iran and assessed to be heading into Turkish airspace was neutralized by NATO air and missile-defense assets deployed in the Eastern Mediterranean.

Ankara said ammunition fragments fell in southeastern Türkiye (Gaziantep province), but no deaths or injuries were reported. The ministry added that it would take all necessary measures, without hesitation, against any threat directed at Turkey.

Source: Türkiye Ministry of National Defence (via TRT Haber / TRT World); Wall Street Journal.

Iran has named Mojtaba Khamenei as its new supreme leader following the death of Ali Khamenei, according to state media cited by Reuters. Reuters reported that the appointment was made by the Assembly of Experts, elevating a figure long seen as close to Iran’s security establishment at a time of widening regional conflict. The development added to market unease over the weekend as investors weighed the risk of a harder Iranian stance toward the West and further disruption to energy flows.

At the same time, U.S. President Donald Trump said on Sunday that higher oil prices were an acceptable cost of military action against Iran’s nuclear program. In comments reported by AP, Trump described “short term oil prices” as “a very small price to pay” for eliminating what he called Iran’s nuclear threat. The combination of Iran’s leadership shift and Trump’s remarks helped keep markets focused on geopolitical risk and the prospect of sustained pressure on global oil prices.

Source: Reuters, AP.

The Israeli military said it has begun a new wave of airstrikes against Hezbollah sites in Beirut’s southern suburbs (Dahiyeh), adding that more details would be released later.

Lebanese media reported powerful explosions across multiple areas of the capital overnight as the strikes unfolded. The escalation comes amid an intensifying Israel–Hezbollah track alongside the broader regional war, with recent days already marked by heavy strikes on Beirut’s southern belt.

Source: IDF statement (via Times of Israel); Reuters.

Saudi Arabia has warned Iran that continued attacks on the kingdom and its energy sector could force Riyadh to respond in kind, according to four sources cited by Reuters.

The message was delivered in a call between Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan and Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, the sources said. Reuters reported Riyadh also signaled it could permit U.S. military operations from Saudi bases if Iranian aggression persists—despite saying it favors a diplomatic settlement and denying its territory was used for attacks on Iran.

Source: Reuters.

U.S. President Donald Trump said Britain is giving “serious thought” to sending two aircraft carriers to the Middle East, but added that U.S. forces don’t need UK help in the Iran war. In a post addressing Prime Minister Keir Starmer, Trump wrote: “We don’t need them any longer — but we will remember,” adding: “We don’t need people that join wars after we’ve already won!”

UK reporting and official briefings, however, have focused on stepped-up readiness for HMS Prince of Wales (one of Britain’s two carriers), with no final decision publicly confirmed on deploying one carrier—let alone two.

Source: Reuters; Wall Street Journal; UK reporting.