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U.S. President Donald Trump is expected to receive a Thursday briefing on possible new military action against Iran from CENTCOM Commander Admiral Brad Cooper, according to Axios, with Reuters separately matching the report. The reported menu of options includes a “short and powerful” wave of strikes on Iranian targets, likely including infrastructure, as Washington looks for ways to break the current negotiating deadlock. General Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs, is also expected to attend the briefing.

Axios reported that other options under discussion include a special forces mission to secure Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile and a possible operation to force open part of the Strait of Hormuz for commercial shipping, which could require ground forces. These scenarios underscore that the White House is not only preserving military leverage but may also be reviewing escalation paths beyond the existing blockade.

The reported review comes after Trump rejected Iran’s recent proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz while postponing nuclear talks, saying the blockade would remain until a nuclear deal addresses U.S. concerns. That means the main dispute is still unresolved: Tehran wants the shipping crisis handled first, while Washington is insisting that nuclear constraints stay at the center of any agreement.

Possible Market Effect: This headline is supportive for a renewed geopolitical risk premium in oil, shipping, and safe-haven assets, because it raises the risk that the current ceasefire could give way to another military phase if diplomacy remains stuck. This market effect is an inference based on the reported briefing, the ongoing blockade, and the unresolved Hormuz dispute.

Source: Axios, Reuters.

The Wall Street Journal reported that President Donald Trump has told aides to prepare for a prolonged blockade of Iran, favoring sustained economic pressure over either a return to large-scale strikes or a broader pullback. Reuters separately reported that Trump met with U.S. oil companies and discussed how to continue the blockade for months if needed while limiting the impact on American consumers.

At the same time, Axios reported that Trump rejected Iran’s latest proposal, which would have reopened the Strait of Hormuz first and pushed nuclear negotiations to a later stage. Axios said Trump views the blockade as “somewhat more effective than the bombing,” and Reuters has also reported that Washington remains focused on nuclear restrictions from the outset rather than accepting a phased deal that postpones that issue.

This means the diplomatic stalemate is deepening rather than easing. The core dispute remains unchanged: Iran wants relief from the blockade and room to separate shipping issues from the nuclear file, while Washington is using the blockade as leverage to force a broader non-nuclear deal. Reuters reported that efforts to restart direct diplomacy remain stuck, even as mediator Pakistan continues trying to pass messages between the two sides.

Possible Market Effect: A longer blockade would likely keep a geopolitical risk premium in oil, shipping, and broader global risk assets. It also raises the chance of renewed volatility if Iran responds more aggressively in or around the Strait of Hormuz. This market effect is an inference based on the reported blockade strategy, stalled diplomacy, and Reuters’ reporting that oil rose on concerns about a lengthy disruption.

Source: Wall Street Journal, Axios, Reuters.

U.S. President Donald Trump has instructed aides to prepare for a prolonged blockade of Iran, signaling a shift toward sustained economic pressure rather than a quick diplomatic settlement or renewed large-scale military strikes. The plan focuses on tightening restrictions on Iranian oil exports and limiting shipping to and from Iranian ports.

The move follows an April ceasefire that ended a major bombing campaign but did not resolve the broader conflict. Trump reportedly rejected a three-step Iranian proposal that would have reopened the Strait of Hormuz early while delaying nuclear talks, judging it insufficient because it did not meet U.S. demands for long-term restrictions on Tehran’s nuclear program.

Trump is reportedly unwilling to drop the demand that Iran suspend uranium enrichment for at least 20 years, with additional restrictions beyond that period. The standoff raises the risk of a prolonged “no-deal, no-war” phase, where diplomacy remains frozen while economic pressure continues.

Possible Market Effect:

A prolonged blockade could keep oil prices supported by geopolitical risk, especially if shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains restricted. It may also strengthen safe-haven demand for the U.S. dollar and gold while pressuring risk-sensitive assets and oil-importing economies.

Source: The Wall Street Journal

Media reports said President Donald Trump was unhappy with Iran’s proposal to end the two-month conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, because the plan would postpone talks on Tehran’s nuclear ambitions to a later stage. CNN reported that mediators in Pakistan expect to receive a revised Iranian proposal in the coming days.

Trump has repeatedly argued that eliminating Iran’s nuclear capabilities, especially any route to a nuclear weapon, was a central reason behind the joint U.S.-Israeli assault launched in late February. Reuters reported that this was why Trump was displeased with the Iranian offer. Hopes for renewed negotiations were already weakened over the weekend after Trump canceled plans to send U.S. negotiators to Pakistan for another round of talks.

Trump also said on Tuesday that Iran had informed the U.S. it was in a “state of collapse.”

Possible Market Effect:

The lack of diplomatic progress may keep geopolitical risk premiums elevated in oil and energy markets, especially if the Strait of Hormuz remains restricted. It may also support safe-haven demand for the U.S. dollar and gold while pressuring risk-sensitive assets.

Source: Reuters; CNN

Ukraine’s second April strike on the Apatit JSC complex in Russia’s Vologda region has sharpened concerns over the vulnerability of fertilizer infrastructure to wartime disruption. Regional governor Georgy Filimonov said the attack damaged a high-pressure sulfuric acid pipeline, injured five workers, and caused a leak that was quickly contained without hazardous chemicals escaping. The facility belongs to PhosAgro, the Russian phosphate-fertilizer producer.

Kyiv has presented the plant as a strategic target, arguing that it produces materials that can support Russia’s war effort. That claim has circulated in recent reporting, but it has not been independently verified. Even so, the repeated targeting of a major fertilizer site matters for markets because it adds to an already strained global supply backdrop.

The broader fertilizer market was already tight before this latest strike. Reuters has reported that China tightened fertilizer exports to protect domestic supply, while Russia has kept quotas and other restrictions in place or under consideration as governments try to preserve local availability during a period of disruption linked to the Hormuz crisis and wartime logistics stress.

Possible Market Effect: Repeated attacks on Russian fertilizer infrastructure can keep fertilizer prices and broader agricultural commodity volatility elevated, especially when global exports are already constrained. The risk is less about one isolated incident and more about the normalization of recurring supply shocks across key production hubs.

Source: Reuters, Vologda regional authorities, PhosAgro

Ukraine launched another drone strike on the Apatit JSC complex in Russia’s Vologda region, damaging a high-pressure sulfuric acid pipeline and injuring five workers, according to regional governor Georgy Filimonov. The facility is owned by PhosAgro, the Russian phosphate-based fertilizer producer, and the leak was reportedly contained without any hazardous chemical release. Reuters also reported that this was the second attack on the site in April, highlighting continued pressure on Russia’s industrial and commodity infrastructure.

The incident matters because PhosAgro is one of Russia’s major fertilizer groups, and repeated strikes on such assets raise concerns about potential disruptions to production and export flows, even when immediate damage appears limited. For now, local authorities say the technological process was brought under control quickly, but the attack still adds to broader sensitivity in supply chains and commodity markets.

Possible Market Effect: This may be modestly supportive for fertilizer prices and broader agricultural commodity risk premiums if markets start to price in a higher chance of recurring disruption to Russian production infrastructure.

Source: Reuters, PhosAgro, Vologda regional authorities

U.S. President Donald Trump canceled a planned trip by American envoys to Pakistan for Iran-related talks shortly after Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi left Islamabad, dealing another setback to mediation efforts. Reuters reported that Trump said he called off the visit by envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, while AP said the latest talks appeared to fail before they began.

The two sides remain far apart despite Trump’s earlier move to extend the ceasefire. The main points of tension are still the U.S. naval blockade and Iran’s stance on the Strait of Hormuz, which Tehran has linked to any broader diplomatic progress. AP also reported that Pakistan says indirect mediation is still continuing even after the direct Islamabad track stalled.

This leaves the ceasefire in place but diplomacy in a holding pattern, with no clear breakthrough yet on the core disputes that could move talks forward.

Possible Market Effect: The stalled talks are likely to keep a geopolitical risk premium in oil and maintain support for safe-haven assets, because uncertainty around Hormuz and regional shipping has not been resolved. This market effect is an inference based on the continued blockade, stalled diplomacy, and recent oil-sensitive reporting.

Source: Reuters, Associated Press

Axios reported on Sunday that Iran has sent the U.S. a new proposal through Pakistani mediators aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz and helping end the war, while postponing talks over Iran’s nuclear program to a later stage. Reuters separately summarized the report and said the proposal was described by a U.S. official and two sources familiar with the matter.

The reported offer suggests Tehran is trying to break the current deadlock by separating the immediate military and shipping crisis from the far more contentious nuclear file. That matters because the Hormuz dispute and the U.S. naval blockade remain the main obstacles to restarting diplomacy, even after President Donald Trump extended the ceasefire last week. Reuters reported on April 26 that Trump had already canceled a planned Pakistan trip by U.S. envoys after talks stalled, while Pakistan said indirect mediation was still moving ahead.

The proposal also highlights how far apart the two sides still are. Axios said Iran wants to defer nuclear discussions, while the U.S. has been focused on Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile and future enrichment limits as central demands in any broader settlement. So even if the proposal helps reopen a diplomatic channel, it does not yet mean the hardest part of the negotiation has been solved.

Possible Market Effect: If the report gains official backing, it could be modestly positive for oil market sentiment because it points to a possible path toward reopening Hormuz. But because the nuclear issue is being pushed back rather than resolved, the broader geopolitical risk premium is still likely to remain elevated. This market effect is an inference based on the reported proposal and the ongoing Hormuz disruption.

Source: Axios, Reuters

U.S. President Donald Trump is considering extending a temporary waiver to the Jones Act, a century-old shipping law that normally limits trade between U.S. ports to American-built, American-owned, and American-flagged vessels. The possible extension, first reported by Axios and matched by Reuters, would keep allowing foreign-flagged ships to move fuel and other goods between domestic ports as Washington tries to contain energy disruption linked to the Iran war and the closure risk around the Persian Gulf shipping system.

The policy matters because it gives U.S. refiners and distributors a larger shipping pool, making it easier to move crude and fuel from producing regions such as the Gulf Coast to other U.S. markets. But the measure has not fully solved the domestic supply problem: Reuters reported earlier this month that the waiver had done little to increase internal U.S. oil flows, while fuel exports abroad surged because overseas margins were more attractive.

That leaves the waiver extension as more of a market-stabilization tool than a complete fix. It signals that the White House remains concerned about fuel costs and supply bottlenecks even after Trump’s ceasefire extension with Iran, because the broader shipping disruption and geopolitical risk premium have not fully disappeared.

Possible Market Effect: An extension would be mildly bearish for U.S. fuel price pressure at the margin because it supports domestic logistics flexibility, but the bigger driver for oil and gasoline will still be whether tensions around Iran and Hormuz genuinely ease.

Source: Axios, Reuters

The U.S.-Iran ceasefire has moved into a more uncertain phase after President Donald Trump said Washington would keep the truce in place without setting a new deadline for Iran to submit a proposal or for talks to conclude. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said no timetable had been imposed, while Pakistani mediators were still trying to bring both sides together after tentative talks in Islamabad failed to materialize before the truce was due to expire. Reuters also reported that an earlier round of talks in Islamabad, held about 11 days before, ended without an agreement.

The core gap remains wide. Washington wants Iran to surrender its highly enriched uranium and halt further enrichment, while Tehran says its nuclear program is civilian and is demanding sanctions relief, reparations, and recognition of its control over the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has also linked broader truce discussions to a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah. At the same time, Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon killed at least five people, including journalist Amal Khalil, marking the deadliest day there since the April 16 ceasefire.

Possible Market Effect: This backdrop is likely to keep the geopolitical risk premium in oil elevated and sustain demand for safe-haven assets, because Hormuz-related uncertainty remains unresolved and the Lebanon front is still active. This market effect is an inference based on the continuing blockade, stalled diplomacy, and renewed regional violence.

Source: Reuters

Iran seized two commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz as tensions with the U.S. remained unresolved and the status of the ceasefire stayed uncertain. Reuters reported that the ships were the Liberia-flagged Epaminondas and the Panama-flagged MSC Francesca, while a third Liberia-flagged container ship was fired upon but was not damaged and resumed sailing. Iran’s parliament speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf said a full ceasefire would only make sense if the U.S. naval blockade was lifted, arguing that reopening the strait was impossible under what he called a breach of the truce.

The confrontation leaves both sides in a holding pattern. President Donald Trump said the U.S. would extend the ceasefire until it reviews an Iranian proposal, but Iranian officials did not publicly confirm acceptance of that extension and continued to criticize the blockade. The U.S. military has also directed dozens of ships to turn around or return to port as part of the blockade, keeping the shipping disruption alive far beyond the immediate war zone.

Oil prices stayed elevated as a result. Reuters reported that Brent crude was up 1.3% at $103.28 a barrel and WTI was up 1.6% at $94.48 in Thursday trading, after Brent had moved back above $100 for the first time in more than two weeks.

Possible Market Effect: Continued disruption in the Persian Gulf is supportive for oil, inflation-sensitive assets, and safe havens, while keeping pressure on global equities, shipping, and energy-importing economies.

Source: Reuters, Tasnim News Agency

Just after Wall Street closed, U.S. President Donald Trump said he would extend the U.S.-Iran ceasefire beyond its original Wednesday deadline, while keeping the naval blockade in place until Iran submits a proposal and discussions are concluded. Reuters and AP reported that the extension came even though it was still unclear whether Iran would accept the new arrangement, and Trump’s statement made clear that military pressure would continue alongside diplomacy.

Earlier in the day, markets had been watching signs that diplomacy was faltering. AP reported that the White House had suspended Vice President JD Vance’s planned trip to Islamabad after Iran rebuffed efforts to restart negotiations, while Reuters said uncertainty around talks and the ongoing blockade kept the diplomatic outlook fragile.

The result is a ceasefire that has been prolonged, but not stabilized. The core message for investors is that the military pause remains in place for now, yet the negotiating track is still close to deadlock because Tehran has not clearly embraced the extension terms and Washington is not easing pressure.

Possible Market Effect: This setup is supportive for a continued geopolitical risk premium in oil, while also keeping safe-haven demand and short-term volatility in global equities and FX elevated.

Source: Reuters, Associated Press