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Japan’s revised GDP figures showed the economy grew 0.3% quarter-on-quarter in Q4 2025, up from the initial 0.1% estimate, while annualized growth was revised to 1.3% from 0.2%. The detail was more constructive as private consumption rose 0.3%, private non-residential investment increased 1.3%, and external demand was flat at 0.0%. The GDP deflator rose 3.4% year-on-year, pointing to continued price pressure in nominal terms.

Source: Cabinet Office of Japan.

Japan’s labor data showed wage momentum remained solid in January. Average cash earnings rose 3.0% year-on-year, with total cash earnings for establishments with five or more employees reaching 301,314 yen. The report keeps the focus on whether income growth can stay firm enough to support consumption and broader domestic demand.

Source: Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare of Japan.

Japan’s household spending weakened at the start of the year, with real consumption expenditure for two-or-more-person households falling 2.5% month-on-month on a seasonally adjusted basis and 1.0% year-on-year in real terms in January. The release points to a softer consumer backdrop even as income conditions have started to improve elsewhere in the data flow.

Source: Statistics Bureau of Japan.

Japan’s latest indicators pointed to a firmer near-term pulse, with the Leading Index (MoM) rising 2.1% in January from 1.1% previously and the Coincident Indicator (MoM) jumping 2.5% after -0.5%. The broader Leading Index also improved to 112.4, although it came in slightly below the 113.0 forecast. Meanwhile, the Economy Watchers Current Index rose to 48.9 in February from 47.6, beating the 48.1 expectation. The overall picture suggests Japan’s economy saw better momentum and improved business sentiment, even if forward-looking conditions remain somewhat cautious.

Source: Investing.com Economic Calendar

Japan’s wage data for January reinforced the view that income growth is continuing to strengthen. Overall wage income rose 3.0% YoY, beating the 2.5% forecast and the 2.4% prior reading. More notably, overtime pay jumped 3.3% YoY, sharply above the previous 1.5% pace. The data points to improving labour-market momentum and gives further support to the idea that domestic wage conditions are becoming more consistent with the Bank of Japan’s longer-term normalization path.

Japan’s external balance remained firmly in surplus in January, but both headline current-account readings came in slightly below market expectations. The adjusted current account was reported at JPY 3.15 trillion, missing the JPY 3.19 trillion forecast, while the non-seasonally adjusted current account came in at JPY 0.942 trillion, also below the JPY 0.960 trillion consensus. Even so, both figures stayed comfortably above prior levels, suggesting Japan’s external position remains solid, though the latest release points to a softer-than-expected start to the year.

Japan’s foreign reserves (Feb) increased to $1,410.7B, up from $1,394.8B previously, reinforcing a very large external liquidity buffer.

Source: Japan Ministry of Finance

Japan’s 30-year JGB auction cleared at 3.398%, down from 3.615% previously. The lower auction yield suggests firmer demand for long-dated government bonds and a softer yield backdrop versus the prior sale.

Source: Japan Ministry of Finance

Japan’s latest capital-flow data showed foreign investment in Japanese stocks climbed to ¥973.9B, up sharply from ¥399.7B previously, signalling stronger overseas demand for Japanese equities.

At the same time, foreign bond buying remained negative at -¥673.1B, but improved from -¥1,900.8B, suggesting the pace of selling or net outflow into overseas bonds eased significantly.

Source: Japan Ministry of Finance

Japan’s household confidence (Feb) rose to 40.0 (vs 38.2 expected; 37.9 prior), a clear upside surprise. While the level is still low in absolute terms, the move suggests sentiment is improving, potentially helping stabilize consumption expectations.

Source: Cabinet Office, Government of Japan

Japan’s Manufacturing & Services Composite PMI (Feb) rose to 53.9 (vs 53.8 expected; 53.1 prior), pointing to broader momentum across the economy, with overall activity still expanding at a solid pace.

Source: S&P Global / au Jibun Bank

Japan’s S&P Global Services PMI (Feb) printed 53.8, in line with expectations (53.8) and slightly above the prior (53.7). The reading remains firmly above 50, signalling a steady, services-led expansion.

Source: S&P Global / au Jibun Bank