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India’s infrastructure output turned negative in March, with Infrastructure Output (YoY) at -0.4%, compared with 2.3% previously. The shift points to weaker momentum in the country’s core sectors after a positive prior reading and suggests some loss of strength in the industrial base at the end of the quarter.

Importance: Low

Possible Market Effect: The weaker reading may be mildly negative for the rupee and Indian cyclical sectors if investors see it as an early sign of softer industrial momentum.

Source: Office of the Economic Adviser, Ministry of Commerce & Industry, India

Importance: Medium

India’s financial backdrop strengthened further, with bank loan growth at 16.1%, up from 13.8%, and deposit growth at 13.5%, up from 10.8%. At the same time, FX reserves rose to $700.95 billion from $697.12 billion, taking the reserve stock back above the $700 billion mark. The combination points to firm domestic credit demand, improving deposit momentum, and a stronger external buffer.

Possible Market Effect:

This is supportive of India’s macro backdrop. Stronger credit growth and higher reserves can help sentiment toward the rupee and reduce immediate concern over external vulnerability, although faster loan growth than deposits may keep liquidity conditions in focus.

Importance: Medium

India’s trade balance improved meaningfully in March, with the trade deficit narrowing to $20.67 billion from $27.10 billion previously and coming in much better than the $32.75 billion forecast. At the same time, exports rose to $38.92 billion from $36.61 billion, while imports fell to $59.59 billion from $63.71 billion. The combination points to a stronger external trade picture at the end of the quarter, helped by firmer exports and a softer import bill.

Possible Market Effect:

This is modestly supportive for the Indian rupee and India’s external-balance outlook, because a narrower trade gap reduces near-term pressure on the current-account side.

Source: Ministry of Commerce & Industry, Government of India; Reuters.

Importance: Medium

India’s trade balance improved in March, with the deficit narrowing to $20.67 billion, better than the $32.75 billion forecast and an improvement from the previous $27.10 billion deficit. Exports rose to $38.92 billion from $36.61 billion, while imports fell to $59.59 billion from $63.71 billion. The release points to a better external trade picture at the end of the quarter, helped by firmer exports and softer import demand.

Possible Market Effect:

This is modestly supportive for the Indian rupee and for India’s external-balance outlook, because a narrower trade gap reduces immediate pressure on the current-account side.

Source: Ministry of Commerce & Industry, Government of India; Reuters.

Importance: Medium

India’s WPI inflation accelerated to 3.88% YoY in March, above the 3.00% forecast and up from 2.13% previously. The detail was also firmer in key upstream categories: manufacturing WPI inflation rose to 3.39% from 2.92%, food WPI eased to 1.90% from 2.19%, while fuel WPI swung to 1.05% from -3.78%. The release shows that wholesale price pressure strengthened materially in March, with fuel and manufactured goods doing most of the lifting.

Possible Market Effect:

This is mildly hawkish for India’s inflation outlook. A stronger WPI print can keep markets cautious on rate-cut expectations and may offer marginal support to the rupee and front-end yields.

Source: Office of the Economic Adviser, Ministry of Commerce & Industry, Government of India.

Importance: Medium

India’s CPI (YoY) rose to 3.40% in March from 3.21% in February, but still came in below the 3.48% forecast. The reading shows inflation picked up on a monthly release basis, yet remained softer than markets had expected.

Possible Market Effect:

This is slightly supportive for Indian rates and rate-sensitive assets because the inflation print was below the forecast. At the same time, the rise from the previous month means inflation risks have not disappeared, especially if energy pressures persist.

Source: Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).

(Medium importance)

India’s M3 Money Supply rose 13.0%, up from 10.7% previously. With no forecast shown in the provided data, the latest reading points to a clear acceleration in broad money growth. The move suggests liquidity conditions expanded more rapidly than in the previous period.

Possible Market Effect: Faster money-supply growth may support a firmer domestic liquidity backdrop, although the direct market effect is usually limited unless the trend persists.

Source: Reserve Bank of India

(Medium importance)

India’s FX Reserves, USD increased to 697.12B from 688.06B previously. With no forecast shown in the provided data, the main takeaway is a further strengthening of the country’s reserve position. The increase points to a larger external liquidity buffer in the latest reading.

Possible Market Effect: Higher FX reserves are modestly supportive for India’s external stability narrative and can help support confidence around the rupee at the margin.

Source: Reserve Bank of India

Importance: Medium

India’s Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI rose to 66.17 in April from 57.26 previously. With no forecast shown, the latest reading points to a sharp improvement in consumer sentiment. The move suggests households became significantly more confident at the start of the quarter.

Possible Market Effect: The stronger reading is supportive for the domestic-demand outlook and may help reinforce a more constructive view on India’s consumer backdrop.

Source: Thomson Reuters / Ipsos

Medium Importance

India’s central bank left the Interest Rate Decision unchanged at 5.25%, exactly in line with the forecast of 5.25% and the previous 5.25%. At the same time, the Reverse REPO Rate remained at 3.35%, unchanged from 3.35% previously, while the Cash Reserve Ratio stayed at 3.00%, also unchanged from 3.00%. The combined outcome shows a fully steady policy setting, with no adjustment in the benchmark rate, liquidity-related rate, or reserve requirement. In macro terms, the data point to a central bank that is maintaining policy continuity and preserving flexibility rather than signaling an immediate shift.

Possible Market Effect: The immediate market effect is likely to be limited because the decision was fully in line with expectations, but steady policy settings can help support short-term stability in Indian rates and the rupee.

Source: Reserve Bank of India

The Reserve Bank of India left its benchmark policy rate unchanged at 5.25%, in line with expectations, while Governor Sanjay Malhotra warned that risks to the outlook remain tilted to the downside because of disruptions tied to the West Asia conflict. The RBI said it expects CPI inflation at 4.6% in FY2027 and GDP growth at 6.9%, compared with 2.6% inflation and 6.8% GDP growth for FY2026.

The central message from the policy is that inflation has stayed relatively contained so far, but risks from energy, shipping, and insurance markets remain elevated even after the temporary ceasefire announcement. That keeps the RBI in a cautious position, especially because India remains highly exposed to imported energy flows linked to the Strait of Hormuz.

The Indian rupee strengthened after the ceasefire relief, with USD/INR around 92.62 in Reuters reporting, compared with 93.0075 the previous day. The move reflected a weaker dollar, lower oil prices, and a temporary easing in market stress ahead of the RBI decision.

Possible Market Effect: Holding rates steady supports policy stability in the short term, but the RBI’s downside-risk warning suggests the rupee, Indian bonds, and domestic equities could remain highly sensitive to oil prices and any renewed disruption around Hormuz. A firmer rupee is supportive at the margin, but that support may fade quickly if energy stress returns.

Source: Reserve Bank of India, Reuters

Importance: Low

India’s March PMI readings pointed to continued strength in private-sector activity. The HSBC Manufacturing & Services PMI rose to 57.00, above the forecast of 56.50 and the previous 56.50, while the HSBC India Services PMI increased to 57.5, also above the forecast of 57.2 and the previous 57.2. The combined result suggests that activity remained firmly in expansion territory and improved modestly from the prior month, signaling resilient business momentum at the end of the quarter.

Possible Market Effect: The data are mildly supportive for Indian growth sentiment and may help reinforce a constructive view on domestic cyclical sectors, although the immediate market effect is likely to remain limited.

Source: S&P Global / HSBC