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France’s January car registrations fell 6.6% YoY, worsening from -5.8% previously. The deeper decline points to weaker auto demand at the start of the year—an activity signal worth watching alongside broader consumer spending and credit conditions.

Spain’s January unemployment change came in worse than expected, with joblessness rising +30.4K (vs +13.4K expected, -16.3K prior). The swing from a prior decline to a sizable increase suggests a softer start to the year for labour market momentum—potentially weighing on domestic-demand confidence if the trend persists.

France’s central government budget balance improved in December, with the deficit narrowing to -€124.7B from -€155.4B previously. The smaller shortfall suggests a better month for fiscal arithmetic—likely reflecting seasonal revenue flows and/or spending timing—though the overall balance remains deeply negative, keeping attention on France’s deficit trajectory and funding needs.

France’s January inflation readings came in much softer than expected. CPI fell -0.3% MoM (vs -0.1% expected, +0.1% prior), and HICP also declined -0.3% MoM (vs +0.1% prior), pointing to a clear monthly price pullback. On a yearly basis, CPI slowed to 0.3% YoY (vs 0.6% expected, 0.8% prior) and HICP eased to 0.4% YoY (vs 0.6% expected, 0.7% prior). The takeaway is a rapid cooling in inflation momentum at the start of the year—relevant for EUR rates expectations if similar softness shows up across the wider euro area.

France’s latest BTF auctions cleared at slightly lower yields across the curve: 12-month at 2.058% (vs 2.084% prior, ~-2.6 bps), 3-month at 2.007% (vs 2.021%, ~-1.4 bps), and 6-month at 2.036% (vs 2.045%, ~-0.9 bps). The small drop suggests modestly easier short-term funding conditions and steady demand for French bills despite still-elevated front-end rates.

Car registrations in the euro area rose 1.10% YoY in January, swinging from -2.20% previously. The move back into positive territory suggests a tentative stabilization in consumer durable demand at the start of the year—an encouraging signal for activity-sensitive sectors, even if the pace remains modest and needs confirmation in coming months.

Switzerland’s procure.ch Manufacturing PMI rose to 48.8 in January (vs 47.2 expected, 45.8 prior), a strong upside surprise that signals the manufacturing contraction is easing. While the index remains below 50 (still indicating contraction), the sharp improvement suggests momentum is stabilizing and the worst phase of the downturn may be moderating—potentially supportive for CHF sentiment at the margin if the trend continues into new orders and output.

January HCOB PMIs show Eurozone manufacturing is still close to contraction but gradually stabilizing. The Eurozone PMI rose to 49.5 (vs 49.4 expected, 48.8 prior), suggesting conditions are improving, though still just below the 50-growth line. Country detail was mixed: France moved further into expansion at 51.2 (vs 51.0 expected, 50.7 prior), while Germany improved to 49.1 (vs 48.7 expected, 47.0 prior), signaling the downturn there is easing meaningfully. Spain slipped to 49.2 (vs 49.9 expected, 49.6 prior), and Italy rose to 48.1 (vs 48.5 expected, 47.9 prior), both still in contraction. Net-net: the region’s manufacturing picture looks less weak, but the “return to growth” is still incomplete—keeping EUR sensitivity tied to whether this stabilization translates into stronger orders and output in coming prints.

Switzerland’s December retail sales rose 2.9% YoY (vs 2.5% expected, 1.7% prior), a clear upside surprise that points to firmer household demand into year-end. The acceleration from the previous reading suggests consumption momentum improved, which can be modestly supportive for the CHF—especially if it aligns with stable real incomes and a steady domestic growth backdrop.

Germany’s December retail sales data surprised to the upside: sales rose 0.1% MoM (vs -0.1% expected, -0.5% prior), marking a modest rebound after last month’s decline. On an annual basis, retail sales increased 1.5% YoY (vs -1.6% prior), flipping from contraction to growth and hinting that household demand may be stabilizing into year-end. For the EUR, a firmer consumption signal can help at the margin—especially if it aligns with improving real incomes and easing inflation pressure—though markets will still look for confirmation in broader activity data and confidence measures.

Germany’s CPI rose 0.1% m/m in January (vs 0.0% expected; 0.0% prior) and picked up to 2.1% y/y (vs 2.0% expected; 1.8% prior), signalling a firmer inflation pulse than markets anticipated. On the harmonised measure, HICP fell -0.1% m/m (vs -0.2% expected; 0.2% prior), but HICP held at 2.1% y/y (vs 2.0% expected; 2.0% prior), also a touch hotter than forecast. Overall, the data tilt slightly hawkish at the margin for near-term euro inflation pricing, even if the monthly HICP dip suggests some seasonal/technical effects.

Brazil’s gross debt-to-GDP eased to 78.7% in December (vs 79.5% expected; 79.0% prior), signalling a better-than-expected improvement in the headline debt ratio. However, the budget balance posted a wider -115.502B deficit (vs -95.400B expected; -101.600B prior), indicating a softer monthly fiscal result than markets anticipated. A separate line item showed a budget surplus of 6.251B, reversing from -14.400B previously, while net debt-to-GDP edged up to 65.3% from 65.2%—overall a mixed fiscal snapshot that can keep risk-premium sensitivity elevated for BRL and local rates.