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Italy’s HCOB Manufacturing PMI rose to 51.3 in March, above the 50.9 forecast and up from 50.6 previously. The data points to a modest but clear improvement in factory activity, with manufacturing remaining in expansion territory and outperforming expectations.

Importance: Low

Possible Market Effect: The stronger PMI may modestly support sentiment toward Italian industrial activity, though the upside surprise was relatively limited.

Source: HCOB and S&P Global.

Spain’s HCOB Manufacturing PMI fell to 48.7 in March, below the 50.5 forecast and down from 50.0 previously. The data shows Spanish manufacturing slipped back below the 50 threshold, signaling renewed contraction and a weaker factory backdrop than expected.

Importance: Medium

Possible Market Effect: The weaker-than-expected PMI may modestly weigh on sentiment toward Spanish industrial activity and euro area growth expectations at the margin.

Source: HCOB and S&P Global.

Switzerland’s procure.ch Manufacturing PMI rose to 53.3 in March, well above the 47.2 forecast and higher than 47.4 previously. The data indicate a marked improvement in manufacturing conditions, with the sector moving back more decisively into expansion territory.

Importance: Medium

Possible Market Effect: A strong upside surprise in PMI can support sentiment toward Swiss industrial activity and may modestly improve expectations for the near-term growth backdrop.

Source: procure.ch.

Switzerland’s retail sales rose 0.9% YoY in February, improving from -0.6% previously, but falling short of the 1.5% forecast. The data show consumer spending conditions improved from the prior contraction, but the recovery was weaker than expected.

Importance: Low

Possible Market Effect: The return to positive growth is mildly encouraging for domestic-demand sentiment, but the miss versus forecast limits the strength of that signal.

Source: Federal Statistical Office of Switzerland (FSO).

Germany’s latest 2-year Schatz auction cleared at 2.620%, up from 2.270% previously. The increase indicates that investors demanded a higher yield than in the prior auction, pointing to firmer short-term funding costs for the German government.

Importance: Medium

Possible Market Effect: A higher Schatz yield can modestly support front-end euro area rates and reinforces the idea that short-dated borrowing costs remain elevated.

Source: Deutsche Finanzagentur.

Italy’s industrial sales data weakened at the start of the year. Industrial sales fell 0.30% month-on-month in January, reversing the 0.60% increase previously. On a yearly basis, industrial sales declined 1.00%, compared with 3.50% growth in the previous reading. The combined figures point to a clear loss of momentum in industrial turnover, with both monthly and annual performance deteriorating.

Importance: Medium

Possible Market Effect: The weaker sales profile may reinforce a cautious view on Italian industrial demand and manufacturing momentum.

Source: Istituto Nazionale di Statistica (ISTAT).

Italy’s March preliminary inflation data showed a mixed but still firm price picture. CPI rose 1.7% year-on-year, up from 1.5% previously, while CPI increased 0.5% month-on-month, below the 0.6% forecast and slower than 0.7% previously. At the same time, the harmonized measure strengthened on a monthly basis, with HICP rising 1.6% month-on-month from 0.5% previously, while the annual HICP held steady at 1.5%. The data suggests consumer-price pressures remained contained in annual terms, but the sharp monthly rise in HICP indicates stronger short-term momentum in harmonized prices.

Importance: Medium

Possible Market Effect: The strong monthly HICP reading may keep attention on near-term euro area price dynamics, although the softer monthly CPI and stable annual HICP limit the signal.

Source: Istituto Nazionale di Statistica (ISTAT).

Preliminary March inflation data for the euro area showed a further moderation in headline and core price pressures. CPI rose 2.5% year-on-year, below the 2.6% forecast, though still above the 1.9% previous reading. Core CPI increased 2.3% year-on-year, softer than both the 2.4% forecast and the 2.4% previous reading. On a monthly basis, headline CPI rose 1.2%, up from 0.6% previously, while core CPI was unchanged at 0.8%. The CPI index level rose to 101.96 from 100.71. Inflation excluding energy and food also moderated on an annual basis, with HICP ex energy and food at 2.2%, down from 2.3%, while the monthly rate edged up to 0.7% from 0.6%. Overall, the data suggests euro area inflation is still running above low inflation levels, but the broad underlying trend continued to soften in March.

Possible Market Effect: The softer-than-expected annual inflation readings may support expectations for a more accommodative ECB path, especially because both headline and core measures came in below forecast.

Source: Eurostat.

Spain’s current account balance rose to a 2.73B surplus in January, up from 1.80B previously. The increase points to an improvement in Spain’s external position at the start of the year, indicating stronger net external flows than in the prior period.

Possible Market Effect: A wider current account surplus is modestly supportive for Spain’s external profile, although one monthly reading is unlikely to have a major standalone market impact.

Source: Bank of Spain (Banco de España).

Germany’s labor market remained broadly stable in March. The unemployment rate held at 6.3%, in line with both the 6.3% forecast and the 6.3% previous reading. At the same time, unemployment change came in at 0K, better than the 2K forecast and lower than the 1K previous increase. Total unemployment stood at 2.977M, unchanged from 2.977M previously, while non-seasonally adjusted unemployment declined to 3.021M from 3.070M. The data points to a labor market that is no longer improving strongly, but is also not showing renewed deterioration.

Possible Market Effect: The stable labor-market picture is unlikely to shift euro pricing materially on its own, but it supports the view that Germany’s employment backdrop remains resilient despite softer growth conditions.

Source: Federal Employment Agency of Germany (Bundesagentur für Arbeit).

Switzerland’s official reserve assets rose to 856.0B in February from 853.1B previously. The increase points to a modest expansion in reserve holdings, suggesting a slightly stronger external buffer position at the start of the year.

Source: Swiss National Bank (SNB).

France’s producer-price data showed continued weakness in pipeline inflation. PPI fell 0.2% month-on-month in February, matching the -0.2% forecast and reversing the 0.5% increase previously. On a yearly basis, PPI declined 2.40%, deeper than the -2.30% previous reading. The figures suggest producer-level price pressures remained soft despite the rebound seen in consumer inflation.

Source: INSEE.