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Germany's July 2024 PMI was revised to 43.2, lower than the 43.5 June print, but higher than the 42.6 estimates.

Spain's July 2024 PMI was revised to 51.0, down from 52.3 printed in June, and 52.5 estimates.

Italy's July 2024 Manufacturing PMI was revised to 47.4, better than the 45.7 June print, and 46.0 estimates.

France's July 2024 PMI was revised to 44.0, down from 45.4 printed in June, and 44.1 estimates.

Eurozone manufacturing PMI was revised to 45.8 in July 2024, which is equal to the figure recorded in June, and better than 45.6 estimates.

The unemployment rate in June in the Euro area increased to 6.5%. This index was recorded at 6.4% in the previous month and the market expected it to remain at the same level.

🟢Germany Unemployment Rate 🇩🇪

Germany's jobless rate hit 6% in July 2024, the highest since May 2021, with 18,000 more unemployed, totaling 2.802 million.  

🟢Euro Area Inflation Rate in July 🇪🇺

The Euro Area's annual inflation rate rose to 2.6% in July 2024 from 2.5% in June, against forecasts of 2.4%.  

Germany GDP Growth Rate 🇩🇪
Germany's economy unexpectedly contracted by 0.1% in Q2 2024, reversing a 0.2% growth from Q1 and missing the expected 0.1% gain.  

Euro Area GDP Growth Rate 🇪🇺
The Euro Area's GDP grew by 0.3% in Q2 2024, slightly above expectations.  

Euro Area Consumer Confidence in July 2024 🇪🇺
Consumer confidence in the Euro Area increased to -13 in July 2024, the highest since February 2022, and in line with forecasts.  

Germany Inflation Rate in July 🇩🇪
Germany's inflation rate rose to 2.3% in July 2024 from 2.2% in June, contrary to forecasts.  

At its meeting on Thursday, July 18, as widely expected, the European Central Bank (ECB) maintained its benchmark deposit rate at 3.75%, after cutting it from an all-time high of 4% in June. The interest rate on its main refinancing operations also stayed at 4.25%, while the rate of its marginal lending facility remained at 4.50%.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the Eurozone was steady at 0.2% in June, as expected, lowering the annual inflation rate to 2.5%. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, held at 2.9% to meet market estimates.

These numbers do not change our expectation of the European Central Bank (ECB) maintaining current rates and policies at Thursday's monetary policy meeting.

Eurozone inflation eased to 2.5% in Jun, however, the service sector still needs more attention. Core CPI remains unchanged at 2.9%, signaling that holding the current rate in the ECB's July meeting has more chance now!

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) trimmed its key policy rate by 25 basis points for a second straight meeting on Thursday. Recent strength in the Swiss franc and benign domestic inflation add to the case for looser monetary conditions.

The Governing Council decided to lower the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points. Based on an updated assessment of the inflation outlook, the dynamics of underlying inflation, and the strength of monetary policy transmission, it is now appropriate to moderate the degree of monetary policy restriction after nine months of holding rates steady. Since the Governing Council meeting in September 2023, inflation has fallen by more than 2.5 percentage points and the inflation outlook has improved markedly. Underlying inflation has also eased, reinforcing the signs that price pressures have weakened, and inflation expectations have declined at all horizons. Monetary policy has kept financing conditions restrictive. By dampening demand and keeping inflation expectations well anchored, this has made a major contribution to bringing inflation back down.

The Eurozone’s M3 money supply expanded 2.8% year-on-year in September, slightly above forecasts of 2.7%, while total money stock reached €16.99 trillion. Lending to non-financial corporations slowed marginally to 2.9%, and private sector loan growth held steady at 2.6%. The data suggest that monetary dynamics remain subdued despite a modest rebound, reflecting restrained credit demand amid high borrowing costs and cautious business sentiment.

ECB Supervisory Board member Anneli Tuominen noted in her remarks that financial conditions remain tight but are gradually stabilizing as inflation pressures ease.

Market impact: Neutral to mildly positive for EUR; steady credit growth and improving liquidity conditions may support expectations for policy normalization once inflation shows further convergence toward target.

France’s Treasury bills (BTF) auctions showed slightly higher yields across most maturities. The 12-month yield rose to 2.053% from 2.020%, while the 3-month rate increased to 2.011% from 1.987%. The 6-month yield remained unchanged at 2.015%. The results indicate stable investor demand and balanced short-term funding conditions, reflecting confidence in France’s fiscal outlook amid the broader Eurozone rate stabilization.

Market impact: Neutral for EUR; steady short-term yields reinforce expectations that Eurozone money-market conditions remain well-anchored.

Europe’s car market showed a broad rebound in September, led by strong month-on-month gains across major economies. Italy’s car registrations jumped 88.4% from August and rose 4.2% year-on-year, while Germany saw a 13.7% monthly increase and 12.8% annual growth. France also recorded a 59.8% monthly rise, though annual growth slowed to 1.0%. The recovery reflects seasonal factors and fleet renewals following a weak summer, signaling renewed momentum in Europe’s auto sector despite lingering supply and demand challenges.

Market impact: Mildly positive for EUR; the strong auto sales rebound suggests industrial activity may stabilize heading into Q4, easing near-term concerns over Eurozone growth.

Germany’s GfK Consumer Climate Index fell to -24.1 for November from a revised -22.0 in October, marking the second consecutive decline. The deterioration highlights renewed consumer caution amid persistent inflation, weak real income growth, and rising geopolitical uncertainty. The drop suggests that household spending momentum remains under pressure, posing challenges to Germany’s fragile recovery outlook heading into winter.

Market impact: Mildly negative for EUR; weaker consumer sentiment may dampen near-term consumption and weigh on overall Eurozone growth expectations.