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EnglishپارسیEnglishپارسیConstruction in the euro area continued to contract in July, with the HCOB Eurozone PMI slipping to 44.7 from 45.2 in June. Member states showed divergent patterns: Germany’s construction PMI improved to 46.3 (from 44.8), signaling a modest easing of the downturn, while Italy’s reading fell to 48.3 (from 50.2), marking a return to contraction after a brief expansion. France saw the steepest decline, with its construction PMI diving to 39.7 from 41.6, reflecting sharply weaker building activity. The PMI measures changes in sector activity via a survey of purchasing managers; readings below 50 point to contraction. July’s data suggest that despite support measures, the region’s construction sector remains under pressure, which could weigh on investment and broader economic growth in the months ahead.
بازار کار اسپانیا در ژوئیه سرد شد؛ تعداد بیکاران ثبت‌شده نسبت به ژوئن تنها ۱٬۳۵۷ نفر کاهش یافت (۰٫۰۶٪)، که بسیار کمتر از کاهش‌های معمولی تابستان است. با این حال، مجموع بیکاران به ۲٫۴۰۴ میلیون نفر رسید که پایین‌ترین رقم برای ماه ژوئیه از سال ۲۰۰۷ است، اما کمترین کاهش ماهانه از سال ۲۰۱۲ محسوب می‌شود. تعداد افراد دارای بیمه تأمین اجتماعی فقط ۴٬۴۰۸ نفر افزایش یافت، زیرا پایان سال تحصیلی باعث از بین رفتن بسیاری از مشاغل آموزشی شد و استخدام‌های مرتبط با گردشگری نتوانست آن را جبران کند. بیکاری در بخش‌های خدمات، صنعت و ساخت‌وساز افزایش یافت و کاهش کلی ناشی از کاهش تعداد جویندگان کار جدید بود. شاخص تغییر بیکاری ماه‌به‌ماه تعداد افراد ثبت‌نام‌شده در خدمات اشتغال عمومی را می‌سنجد؛ کاهش این شاخص نشانه tightened بازار کار است. بهبود ضعیف ژوئیه نشان می‌دهد رونق اشتغال اسپانیا رو به کاهش است؛ این امر می‌تواند فشارهای دستمزدی را کاهش دهد اما درباره پایداری رشد اقتصادی پرسش ایجاد می‌کند.
Spain’s labour market cooled in July as registered unemployment fell by only 1,357 people compared with June—a 0.06 % decline and far below typical summer reductions. That leaves the jobless total at 2.404 million, the lowest July level in 18 years, but the smallest monthly drop since 2012. Employment grew by just 4,408 Social Security affiliates by the end of the school year, triggering heavy job losses in education, and tourism‑related hiring struggled to offset them. Unemployment actually rose in services, industry, and construction, with the overall drop driven by fewer first‑time job seekers. The Unemployment Change indicator measures month‑to‑month shifts in the number of people registered with public employment services; a decline signals labour‑market tightening. July’s tepid improvement suggests the Spanish jobs boom is losing momentum, potentially easing wage pressures but raising questions about the sustainability of economic growth.
Eurozone producer prices increased 0.8% month‑on‑month in June, reversing a 0.6% fall in May and slightly undershooting forecasts of 0.9%. On an annual basis, producer prices were up 0.6%, accelerating from 0.3% in May. Stronger price growth for durable consumer goods (1.5%) and non‑durable goods (2.0%), coupled with a slower decline in energy costs, helped lift the index. Capital goods inflation remained steady around 1.7%, while prices for intermediate goods dipped 0.1%, their first fall since November 2024. The producer price index (PPI) measures changes in the prices that manufacturers receive for their goods and serves as a leading indicator for consumer inflation. June’s rebound suggests upstream price pressures are picking up, though overall producer inflation remains subdued. Policymakers at the European Central Bank will monitor whether the uptick feeds through to consumer prices before deciding on further interest‑rate cuts.
Business activity across the euro area slowed in July, with the HCOB Eurozone composite PMI slipping to 50.9, just below expectations of 51.0 and down from 52.0 in June. The services index ticked up to 51.0 from 50.5, its highest since April, while manufacturing remained in contraction territory near 49.8. Survey respondents reported stagnant new orders, with export sales declining for the 41st consecutive month. Italy and Spain led growth, Germany returned to modest expansion, and France shrank again. Companies added jobs at the fastest rate in over a year, even as business confidence dipped. Input cost pressures eased to a five‑month low, helping firms keep selling prices steady. The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is a diffusion index compiled by S&P Global; readings above 50 signal expansion. July’s mixed readings point to a fragile recovery and could encourage the European Central Bank to consider a further rate cut if inflation continues to ease.
France’s industrial production jumped 3.8% month‑on‑month in June, far outstripping expectations of 0.8% and rebounding from a 0.7% decline in May. It was the strongest monthly increase since July 2020, driven by a 16.6% surge in transport equipment output as supply‑chain constraints eased. Mining, energy and utilities production also accelerated. Despite the rebound, French industrial output was still down 0.4% from a year earlier. In neighbouring Spain, industrial production rose 2.3% year‑on‑year in June, the fourth consecutive month of growth and the fastest pace since October 2024. Energy output jumped 7.5% and capital goods production climbed 4.7%, while consumer and intermediate goods also contributed. On a month‑over‑month basis, Spain’s output increased 1% after a 0.5% gain in May. Industrial production tracks the real output of manufacturing, mining and utilities and serves as a key barometer of economic momentum. Strong gains in France and Spain suggest the euro‑zone’s industrial sector is regaining traction, which could support growth and influence European Central Bank policy, though lingering supply‑chain issues and external demand risks remain.
Spain’s HCOB services PMI jumped to 55.1 in July, well above June’s 51.9 and a forecast of 52.6, marking the strongest expansion since February and reflecting robust domestic demand. Italy’s composite PMI edged up to 51.5 (from 51.1), while its services index held at 52.3, showing steady growth even as export orders cooled. Germany’s composite and services PMIs both climbed to 50.6, signaling a modest return to expansion after months of stagnation, supported by new service offerings and easing inflation pressures. By contrast, France’s services PMI dropped to 48.5 and its composite PMI to 48.6, indicating a deeper contraction amid political uncertainty and weak demand. A Purchasing Managers’ Index measures changes in activity based on surveys of business executives; readings above 50 signal growth. The mixed picture suggests economic resilience in Spain and Germany but underscores ongoing risks for the euro‑zone, potentially prompting cautious policy from the European Central Bank.
KEY FIGURES
WHAT IT MEANS
Economic expansion in the euro area decelerated sharply after the prior quarter’s rebound, highlighting lingering headwinds from weak domestic demand and global trade uncertainties.
MARKET REACTION
The euro was little changed against major peers and equity futures in the region held steady as markets balanced the mild growth beat against signs of a faltering recovery.
OUTLOOK
Investors will monitor upcoming PMI readings, inflation reports, and ECB meeting minutes to assess whether policy support will be extended to bolster a slowing economy.
KEY FIGURES
• Business and Consumer Survey (Jul): 95.8 (est: 94.5; prev: 94.2)
• Business Climate (Jul): –0.72 (prev: –0.78)
• Consumer Confidence (Jul): –14.7 (est: –14.7; prev: –15.3)
• Consumer Inflation Expectation (Jul): 25.1 (prev: 21.3)
• Services Sentiment (Jul): 4.1 (est: 3.3; prev: 3.1)
• Industrial Sentiment (Jul): –10.4 (est: –11.2; prev: –11.8)
WHAT IT MEANS
Eurozone business and consumer morale rose more than expected in July, with improvements in the business climate and services outlook. However, consumers’ inflation expectations jumped sharply, while manufacturing sentiment remains deeply negative, underscoring uneven recovery across sectors.
MARKET REACTION
The euro held steady, and EU equity futures ticked up modestly as investors cheered the uptick in overall sentiment but remained cautious given elevated inflation forecasts.
OUTLOOK
Markets will watch upcoming PMI readings and ECB minutes to gauge whether the pickup in confidence can translate into sustained economic growth without reigniting price pressures.
KEY FIGURES
WHAT IT MEANS
The steep month-on-month and year-on-year declines signal a pronounced contraction in Italy’s manufacturing sector, reflecting weakening demand both domestically and abroad.
MARKET REACTION
The euro dipped modestly and Italian BTP yields rose as investors digested the downside surprise in industrial activity.
OUTLOOK
Market participants will watch upcoming PMI readings and ECB commentary for clues on whether additional monetary support will be needed to stabilize the industrial recovery.
KEY FIGURES
WHAT IT MEANS
A slight quarter-on-quarter contraction reflects stagnating output as consumption and investment soften, while the modest annual gain points to underlying resilience in the broader economy.
MARKET REACTION
The euro was flat against major currencies and DAX futures edged down as investors weighed the mixed growth signals.
OUTLOOK
Analysts will watch upcoming industrial production and Ifo business‐climate data, along with ECB policy commentary, to gauge whether Germany can regain positive momentum.
KEY FIGURES
• GDP QoQ (Q2): –0.1% (est: 0.1%; prev: 0.3%)
• GDP YoY (Q2): 0.4% (est: 0.6%; prev: 0.7%)
WHAT IT MEANS
Italy’s economy unexpectedly slipped into contraction in Q2, as both domestic consumption and investment weakened, while annual growth decelerated—highlighting persistent challenges in reigniting momentum.
MARKET REACTION
The euro dipped modestly against its peers and Italian BTP yields ticked higher as investors reassessed the outlook for Mediterranean-bloc growth and ECB policy.
OUTLOOK
Observers will watch upcoming industrial output and consumer confidence data, along with ECB commentary, for signs of whether the economy can avoid a deeper downturn.