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• Retail Sales (YoY, Jul): +1.8%, stronger than expectations (+1.1%) and above June’s flat trend, signaling improving annual demand.
• Retail Sales (MoM, Jul): 0.0%, weaker than forecasts (+0.2%) and down from June’s +0.7%, showing stalled monthly momentum.

Market impact: Neutral for EUR — solid annual growth supports demand, but stagnant monthly data signals near-term weakness.

Historical context: The +1.8% YoY rise is above the 12-month average (~+1.0%), showing an improving longer-term trend. However, the flat MoM result is the weakest in three months, pointing to cooling consumer momentum.

• Foreign Reserves (Aug): $715.1B, nearly unchanged from July ($716.5B), showing stable external buffers.
• SECO Consumer Climate (Aug): -40, below expectations (-37) and worse than May’s -33, marking the weakest sentiment since 2022.

Market impact: Neutral for CHF from reserves stability, but weak consumer confidence is negative for the domestic demand outlook.

Historical context: Reserves remain near their 12-month average ($715B), underscoring stability. The -40-consumer climate is far below the long-term average (-20), highlighting persistent pessimism among Swiss households.

• Trade Balance (Jul): -5.6B, better than expectations (-7.3B) and June (-7.2B), showing an improving external gap.
• Current Account (Jul): -2.5B, wider than June’s -2.3B, pointing to ongoing imbalances.
• Exports (Jul): 52.1B, up from 50.8B, reflecting firmer external demand.
• Imports (Jul): 57.7B, slightly lower than June’s 58.0B, easing import pressures.
• Reserve Assets (Aug): €304.8B, up from €303.0B, signaling modest accumulation.

Market impact: Slightly positive for EUR, as narrowing trade deficit and stronger exports boost confidence, though current account weakness limits momentum.

Historical context: The -5.6B trade deficit is the smallest since mid-2022 and well below the 12-month average (~-7.8B), showing a gradual improvement in France’s external balances.

• GDP (YoY, Q2): +1.5%, slightly above forecasts (+1.4%) and unchanged from Q1 (+1.5%), showing steady but moderate annual growth.
• GDP (QoQ, Q2): +0.1%, in line with expectations but sharply down from Q1’s +0.6%, signaling a significant loss of momentum.

Market impact: Slightly negative for EUR, as the economy shows resilience year-on-year but quarterly weakness suggests fading momentum into H2.

Historical context: The +0.1% QoQ growth is the weakest since Q3 2022 and well below the 12-month average (~+0.4%), reflecting stagnation pressures across the bloc.

• Employment Change (YoY, Q2): +0.6%, slightly below expectations (+0.7%) and Q1 (+0.7%), showing softer annual momentum.
• Employment Change (QoQ, Q2): +0.1%, in line with forecasts but weaker than Q1 (+0.2%), pointing to minimal quarterly growth.
• Employment Overall (Q2): 169.78M, just below expectations (169.86M) and Q1 (169.79M), reflecting stagnation in total jobs.

Market impact: Slightly negative for EUR, as softer labor market growth dampens confidence in the bloc’s economic resilience.

Historical context: The +0.6% YoY is the weakest since early 2021 and below the 12-month average (~+0.9%), underlining labor market cooling after years of steady post-pandemic gains.

• Retail Sales (MoM, Jul): -0.5%, weaker than expectations (-0.3%) and reversing June’s +0.6% rise.
• Retail Sales (YoY, Jul): +2.2%, below forecasts (+2.4%) and down from June’s +3.5%, showing softer annual momentum.

Market impact: Slightly negative for EUR, as weaker consumer spending weighs on growth outlook and ECB policy expectations.

Historical context: The +2.2% YoY growth is above the 12-month average (~+1.7%) but marks the slowest pace since April, underscoring fading household demand after a strong Q2.

• 3-Year Bonos Auction: cleared at 2.204%, up from the previous 2.166%.
• 7-Year Obligacion Auction: came in at 2.734%, slightly above the prior 2.720%.

Market impact: Neutral-to-slightly negative for Spanish bonds, as higher yields reflect firmer borrowing costs, but supportive for EUR as investor demand remains steady.

Historical context: Both yields are near their 12-month averages (3Y ~2.25%, 7Y ~2.70%), showing stable financing conditions compared to 2023 peaks, when yields briefly exceeded 3%.

• Italy Construction PMI: 47.7, down from 48.3, signaling continued contraction.
• Germany Construction PMI: 46.0, just below July’s 46.3, showing persistent weakness.
• France Construction PMI: 46.7, a sharp rebound from 39.7, but still below the 50 mark.
• Eurozone Construction PMI: 46.7, improving from 44.7, yet remaining in contraction territory.

Market impact: Slightly supportive for EUR equities, as stabilization in France and the Eurozone headline index points to easing pressures, but overall sub-50 readings confirm sector weakness.

Historical context: The 46.7 Eurozone PMI is above its 12-month average (~45.0), suggesting conditions are less dire than earlier in the year, but the sector has been in contraction for over 18 months, highlighting structural fragility.

• Unemployment Rate n.s.a. (Aug): 2.8%, slightly above July’s 2.7%.
• Unemployment Rate s.a. (Aug): 2.9%, unchanged from both forecasts and the prior month.

Market impact: Neutral for CHF, as labor market stability suggests no immediate policy shifts from the SNB.

Historical context: The 2.9% jobless rate is in line with the 12-month average (~2.9%) and remains among the lowest in Europe, underscoring Switzerland’s strong labor market resilience.

• CPI (YoY, Aug): +0.2%, in line with forecasts and unchanged from July.
• CPI (MoM, Aug): -0.1%, slightly below expectations (0.0%) and July’s flat reading.

Market impact: Neutral-to-negative for CHF, as persistently weak inflation keeps the Swiss National Bank (SNB) under little pressure to tighten further.

Historical context: The +0.2% YoY is among the lowest inflation rates in Europe and far below Switzerland’s 10-year average (~0.6%), highlighting entrenched disinflation.

Germany’s 10-Year Bund Auction cleared at 2.770%, higher than the previous 2.690%, reflecting firmer long-term borrowing costs as investors demand greater returns.

Market impact: Supportive for EUR but negative for German bonds, as higher yields suggest markets are pricing in lingering inflation risks and tighter financing conditions.

Historical context: The 2.77% yield is near its highest since late 2023 and above the 12-month average (~2.55%), signaling a sustained upward shift in Germany’s rate environment.

• PPI (MoM, Jul): +0.4%, above expectations (+0.2%) but slower than June’s +0.8%, showing moderating price momentum.
• PPI (YoY, Jul): +0.2%, just above forecasts (+0.1%) but down from June’s +0.6%, indicating easing producer inflation.

Market impact: Neutral-to-supportive for EUR bonds and equities, as softer producer inflation reduces margin pressures and keeps ECB policy flexibility.

Historical context: The +0.2% YoY is among the lowest since early 2021 and well below the 12-month average (~+2.1%), confirming a clear disinflationary trend in Eurozone industry.