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EnglishپارسیEnglishپارسیAlternative: Above 1.6775, look for 1.6828 then 1.6859
Momentum: RSI < 50, MACD negative and below signal, and price below 20/50 MAs (1.6749 / 1.6757) → overall negative configuration
Alternative: Below 24600, look for downside toward 24450 then 24300
Momentum: RSI lacks downward momentum, supporting the upside bias
Alternative: Below 49400, look for downside toward 49230 then 49050
Momentum: RSI is mixed-to-bullish, still supportive of the upside bias
Alternative: Below 153.20, look for downside toward 152.90 then 152.65
Momentum: RSI is bullish, supporting further upside
Alternative: Below 4875, look for downside toward 4842 then 4820
Momentum: RSI suggests upside momentum (supports the rebound bias)
One rule: GBP trades the UK front-end. If UK 2Y gilt yield keeps drifting lower, stay GBP-bearish; if it bounces, GBP shorts get harder. UK 2Y is around 3.60% now, with a key “more-cuts priced” pivot near 3.55%.
Next BoE decision: Thursday, 19 March 2026.
Current spots (for reference): GBPUSD ~1.355; EURGBP ~0.874.
GBPUSD (more USD noise — use this only if you also have a USD view)
▶️ Scenario A — GBP downside (clean):
Trigger: UK 2Y falls (especially toward/through 3.55%) and USD stays firm.
Entry: Sell on a 4H close below the last 2–3 day low (use your chart level).
Invalidation: 4H close back above the last 2–3 day high.
▶️ Scenario B — GBP short squeeze:
Trigger: UK 2Y bounces + “cut path” gets priced less (or USD softens).
Entry: Buy on a 4H close above the last 2–3 day high.
Invalidation: Back below the breakout level.
EURGBP (cleaner BoE expression — best for “BoE cut = GBP weaker”)
▶️ Scenario A — BoE cut / dovish path = EURGBP up:
Trigger: Break/hold above ~0.8741 (day top area) or just sustained trade above the ECB reference ~0.8733.
Entry: Buy the breakout / buy the retest.
Invalidation: A move back below ~0.8724 (day low area).
▶️ Scenario B — BoE pushes back / GBP resilient = EURGBP down:
Trigger: Rejection and close back below ~0.8724 + UK 2Y firming.
Entry: Sell the breakdown.
Invalidation: Back above ~0.8741.
In a controversial move at Davos, **President Trump rescinded the invitation for former central banker Mark Carney to join the Board of Peace, after Carney delivered a high‑profile speech warning about the erosion of the international rules‑based order. Carney’s withdrawal highlights tensions between Trump’s peace initiative and the concerns of some global leaders about its structure and governance.
Market impact: Illustrates the political risk and fragmentation influencing new global governance efforts, potentially pressuring markets sensitive to diplomacy and institutional credibility.
Target (main): 154.53
Pivot: 155.70
Our preference (Base case):
Alternative scenario (If pivot breaks):
Trading implication: As long as price stays below 155.70, the setup favors continuation lower toward 155.30 → 154.95, with scope to extend toward 154.53. A break and hold above 155.70 flips the bias to 155.87/156.15.
Bias: Bullish while above 4315
Pivot: 4315
Primary upside target: 4375
Our preference (Base case):
Alternative scenario (If price breaks below pivot):
Technical note: RSI has reached the neutral zone near 50 and is turning up, supporting the bullish bias as long as 4315 holds.
Bias: Bearish while below 1.1765
Pivot: 1.1770
Primary downside target: 1.1710
Our preference (Base case):
Alternative scenario (If pivot breaks):
Trading implication: Below 1.1765, downside remains favored toward 1.1725/1.1710. A break and hold above 1.1770 shifts the setup to bullish targets at 1.1790/1.1812.
Rationale: On the shorter 3‑hour timescale, AAPL may face resistance near ~$285, and a tactical short could capture a correction toward ~$250.
Rationale: On the 6‑hour timeframe, USD/JPY is nearing recent highs (~157), and the yen may strengthen, or the dollar may pause — presenting a potential downside target.