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China’s M2 money supply growth eased to 7.9% year-on-year in May (forecast: 8.1%; April: 8.0%), highlighting slowing broad liquidity. New yuan loans stood at CNY 620.0 billion (forecast: 890.0 billion; April: 280.0 billion), missing estimates despite a jump from last month. Outstanding loan growth slowed slightly to 7.1% YoY (forecast: 7.2%; April: 7.2%). Total social financing reached CNY 2,290.0 billion in May (forecast: 2,300.0 billion; April: 1,160.0 billion), reflecting a moderation in aggregate credit extension.

China’s exports in May rose by $6.30 million month-on-month (forecast: $9.30 million; April: $9.30 million), falling short of estimates, while imports declined by $2.10 million (forecast: +$0.80 million; April: –$0.80 million). The trade surplus widened to CNY 743.56 billion (forecast: 710.00 billion; April: 689.99 billion). Year-on-year, exports grew 4.8% (forecast: 5.0%; April: 8.1%) and imports contracted 3.4% (forecast: –0.9%; April: –0.2%). In dollar terms, the surplus climbed to USD 103.22 billion (forecast: 101.10 billion; April: 96.18 billion).

China’s CPI fell 0.2% month-on-month in May (April: +0.1%), marking the first monthly decline in several months. On an annual basis, CPI slipped 0.1% year-on-year (forecast: –0.2%; April: –0.1%), signaling weak consumer-price pressures. Meanwhile, the PPI tumbled 3.3% year-on-year in May (forecast: –3.1%; April: –2.7%), underscoring deepening deflationary strains at the factory gate.

China’s Caixin Services PMI for May rose to 51.1 (forecast: 51.0; April: 50.7), indicating a modest acceleration in service‐sector expansion.

Caixin reports China’s Manufacturing PMI for May at 48.3, well below the 50.8 forecast and down from April’s 50.4, marking renewed contraction in factory activity as demand softens.

The People’s Bank of China set the one-year loan prime rate at 3.00%, in line with forecasts and down from 3.10% in April. The five-year LPR was fixed at 3.50%, matching expectations and lowered from 3.60%. These adjustments aim to bolster lending conditions and support the economic recovery.

China’s unemployment rate in April was 5.1%, below forecasts of 5.2% and down from 5.2% in March, reflecting modest improvements in labor market conditions.

Retail sales rose 5.1% year-on-year in April, well below the 6.0% forecast and down from March’s 5.9% gain, indicating a softening in consumer spending. On a year-to-date basis through April, retail turnover has increased 3.73%, modestly above the 3.61% pace seen through March, reflecting lingering support from earlier in the year despite recent cooling demand.

China’s National Bureau of Statistics reported industrial output rose 6.1% year-on-year in April, outpacing forecasts of 5.7% but down from March’s 7.7% gain, indicating moderating factory momentum. On a year-to-date basis, industrial production was up 6.4% through April, slightly below the 6.5% pace seen through March, underscoring a gradual cooling in manufacturing activity.

China’s fixed asset investment rose 4.0% year-on-year in April, below the 4.4% forecast and down from March’s 4.2%, suggesting a continued softening in infrastructure and property spending.

House prices fell 4.0% year-on-year in April, moderating from March’s 4.5% drop and suggesting a slight stabilization in the property market downturn.

On May 19, 2025, Hong Kong’s Census and Statistics Department reported that GDP rose 3.1% year-on-year in the first quarter—matching forecasts and up from 2.4% a year earlier. Quarter-on-quarter, the economy expanded 1.9%, slightly below the 2.0% expected but well above Q4’s 0.8% gain, indicating sustained momentum despite external headwinds.