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China’s foreign exchange reserves rose to $3.339 trillion in September, up from $3.322 trillion in August, marking a second consecutive monthly increase.

The rise reflects valuation gains in global bond and currency markets, as well as efforts by the PBOC to stabilize the yuan amid volatile capital flows.

Market impact: Mildly positive for the CNY; higher reserves bolster confidence in China’s external stability and policy capacity to manage FX pressures.

• Composite PMI (Sep): 50.6 (prior 50.5).
• Official Manufacturing PMI (Sep): 49.8 (expected 49.6, prior 49.4).
• Non-Manufacturing PMI (Sep): 50.0 (expected 50.3, prior 50.3).
• Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Sep): 51.2 (expected 50.3, prior 50.5).
• Caixin Services PMI (Sep): 52.9 (expected 52.4, prior 53.0).

Market impact: Mixed for CNY; official data show manufacturing contraction and services stagnation, but stronger Caixin surveys highlight private-sector resilience.

Historical context: China’s PMIs remain split — official measures struggle near 50, while Caixin indices suggest modest expansion, reflecting divergence between state and private firms.

• PBoC 1-Year Loan Prime Rate: 3.00% (vs. 3.00% prior, 3.00% expected)
• PBoC 5-Year Loan Prime Rate: 3.50% (vs. 3.50% prior, 3.50% expected)

Market impact: Neutral for CNY, as rates were kept unchanged in line with market expectations.

Historical context: The decision reflects the PBoC’s cautious stance amid a fragile economic recovery, with policymakers balancing support for growth against concerns over financial stability.

• Unemployment Rate (Aug): 5.3% (vs. 5.2% prior & expected), marking a mild uptick in labor market pressure.

Market impact: Slightly negative for CNY, as higher unemployment underscores fragility in the domestic economy and dampens consumer sentiment.

Historical context: The jobless rate has hovered above 5% since mid-2023, highlighting persistent labor market challenges despite government support and stimulus efforts.

• Retail Sales (YoY, Aug): +3.4% (vs. +3.8% prior, +3.7% expected)
• Retail Sales YTD (YoY, Aug): +3.67% (vs. +3.84% prior)

Market impact: Negative for CNY and consumption outlook, as softer sales point to weaker household demand despite government stimulus measures.

Historical context: Retail growth has trended below 4% for much of 2024–25, reflecting fragile consumer confidence after the property downturn and sluggish income growth.

• Industrial Production (YoY, Aug): +5.2% (vs. +5.7% prior & expected)
• Industrial Production YTD (YoY, Aug): +6.2% (vs. +6.3% prior)

Market impact: Slightly negative for CNY and regional sentiment, as softer factory output suggests waning industrial momentum despite policy support.

Historical context: Industrial growth has eased from mid-year highs, reflecting weaker global demand and continued domestic headwinds, though levels remain above the 5% trend seen in 2022–23.

• Fixed Asset Investment (YoY, Aug): +0.5% (vs. +1.5% prior, +1.6% expected), marking a steep deceleration in capital spending.

Market impact: Negative for CNY and growth outlook, as weaker investment signals cooling momentum in infrastructure and manufacturing, dampening hopes for a stronger recovery.

Historical context: This is the slowest pace of fixed asset growth since early 2023, underscoring the challenges posed by weak business confidence and property-sector headwinds.

• House Prices (YoY, Aug): -2.5% (vs. -2.8% prior), marking a slightly slower pace of decline.

Market impact: Neutral-to-mildly supportive for CNY, as the moderation hints at tentative stabilization in the property sector, though risks remain high.

Historical context: Despite easing, house prices have been in contraction for over a year, reflecting the prolonged downturn in China’s real estate market amid weak demand and high developer debt.

• M2 Money Supply (YoY, Aug): +8.8%, in line with July and forecasts.
• New Loans (Aug): ¥590B, below expectations (¥700B) but a rebound from July’s rare contraction (-¥50B).
• Outstanding Loan Growth (YoY, Aug): +6.8%, slightly softer than July’s +6.9%.
• Total Social Financing (Aug): ¥2.57T, above forecasts (¥2.46T) and well above July’s ¥1.13T, signaling stronger credit flows outside traditional bank loans.

Market impact: Mixed for CNY — stronger aggregate financing supports growth, but weak new bank lending shows continued caution among households and firms.

Historical context: The August TSF rebound is the strongest since early 2024, highlighting Beijing’s reliance on broader credit channels amid property-sector stress and soft private demand.

• Thomson Reuters/Ipsos PCSI (Sep): 72.82, up from 72.42 in August, remaining well above the neutral 50 level and signaling strong household optimism.

Market impact: Positive for CNY, as resilient consumer confidence supports domestic demand despite property-sector headwinds.

Historical context: The index has stayed above 70 for over a year, one of the highest globally, underscoring China’s relative strength in consumer sentiment compared to peers.

CPI (MoM, Aug): 0.0%, softer than July’s +0.4% and below forecasts (+0.1%).

CPI (YoY, Aug): -0.4%, deeper than expectations (-0.2%) and down from 0.0% in July, marking renewed consumer deflation.

PPI (YoY, Aug): -2.9%, in line with forecasts and improving from -3.6% in July, but still signaling weak factory-gate prices.

Market impact: Negative for CNY, as persistent deflation pressures highlight weak demand and increase the case for further policy easing.

Historical context: August’s CPI decline marks the steepest annual fall in prices since late 2023, underscoring challenges to China’s recovery despite targeted stimulus.

• Exports (YoY, Aug): +4.4%, below forecasts (+5.0%) and weaker than July (+7.2%), showing slowing momentum.
• Imports (YoY, Aug): +1.3%, softer than expectations (+3.0%) and July (+4.1%), signaling weak domestic demand.
• Trade Balance (USD, Aug): $102.3B, above forecasts ($99.4B) and July ($98.2B), driven by stronger surplus despite weaker flows.
• Trade Balance (CNY, Aug): ¥732.7B, slightly below expectations (¥750.0B) but higher than July (¥705.1B).

Market impact: Neutral-to-slightly negative for CNY — while the record trade surplus supports stability, soft export/import growth highlights demand challenges at home and abroad.

Historical context: The +4.4% export growth is below the 12-month average (~+6.0%) and marks the slowest since April, while the $102.3B surplus is one of the largest on record, reinforcing China’s external strength.