EconoTicker

Hong Kong’s foreign reserves increased to $435.60B in January from $427.90B previously—an increase of about $7.70B. A higher reserves buffer supports confidence in the HKD’s stability under the peg framework and strengthens the territory’s external liquidity position.

China’s RatingDog Services PMI ticked up to 52.3 in January (vs 52.0 expected, 52.0 prior), signaling a slightly faster pace of expansion in the services sector. Staying comfortably above 50 suggests domestic services activity remains supportive, an incremental positive for growth sentiment around the CNY if the trend persists.

Hong Kong’s S&P Global Manufacturing PMI rose to 52.3 in January from 51.9 previously, signaling a firmer pace of expansion (still comfortably above the 50 growth line). The uptick points to improving factory conditions at the start of the year. However, the direct impact on HKD is typically limited given the currency’s peg, making the data more relevant as a read-through on local activity and regional demand.

Hong Kong’s December retail sales rose 6.6% YoY, slightly above the prior 6.5% reading, pointing to continued—if only marginally firmer—consumer spending momentum into year-end. The steady growth suggests demand conditions remain supportive, which can help sentiment around the HKD at the margin even as it remains anchored by the currency peg.

China was Uruguay’s top export destination in 2025, absorbing a broad basket of agricultural and resource-linked shipments—from wood pulp to soybeans and beef. In the first half of 2025, Uruguay posted a $187.1 million trade surplus with China, underscoring how demand for commodities and food exports continues to underpin the bilateral balance. On the other side of the ledger, Uruguay imports machinery, electronics, and chemicals from China, highlighting a classic “commodities-for-manufactures” trade structure that can leave Uruguay’s external position sensitive to swings in Chinese demand and global commodity pricing.

China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3 in January (vs 50.1 expected, 50.1 prior), keeping the gauge marginally in expansion territory. The small upside surprise suggests stabilization in smaller/private manufacturers, but the reading still implies only modest momentum—enough to support near-term sentiment for the CNY at the margin, while keeping the focus on follow-through in orders, pricing power, and policy support.

Hong Kong’s economy expanded 3.8% y/y in Q4, unchanged from the prior 3.8%, while GDP rose 1.0% q/q, accelerating from 0.7% previously—signalling firmer sequential momentum into year-end. Meanwhile, M3 money supply growth eased to 4.2% y/y in December from 4.5%, pointing to slightly slower liquidity expansion even as activity stayed resilient.

Hong Kong’s December trade flows accelerated sharply, with imports up 30.6% m/m (vs 18.1% prior) and exports up 26.1% m/m (vs 18.8% prior). The stronger import rebound outpaced exports, widening the trade balance deficit to HK$63.3B from HK$48.5B previously. The mix suggests a powerful year-end pickup in goods activity, but with demand for inbound goods rising faster than outbound shipments—pressure that can weigh on the net-trade contribution in the near term.

China’s Defence Ministry says it is investigating Gen. Zhang Youxia—vice-chairman of the Central Military Commission and one of Xi Jinping’s most senior military figures—for “serious violations of discipline and law,” a formulation typically linked to corruption cases. Separately, reporting citing internal briefings has alleged Zhang may have passed sensitive nuclear/strategic information to the United States and taken bribes tied to promotions—claims Beijing has not publicly substantiated and which remain unverified beyond the reported briefings, but which, if true, would raise serious questions about oversight and internal security at the top of the PLA.

China’s industrial profits year-to-date rose 0.6% in December, up from 0.1% previously, suggesting a modest improvement in corporate earnings momentum after a long stretch of margin pressure. The uptick is consistent with stabilizing demand and incremental policy support, but the low single-digit pace still points to a fragile recovery—keeping the spotlight on pricing power, excess capacity, and how quickly profit growth can broaden beyond a handful of sectors.

China’s FDI measure fell -9.5% in December, weakening from -7.5% previously. The deeper contraction points to continued pressure on inbound investment sentiment—consistent with ongoing concerns around growth, regulatory visibility, and geopolitical/trade uncertainty.

Market impact: Mildly negative for CNY sentiment and China/Asia risk appetite at the margin; may reinforce expectations for policy support to stabilize confidence, even if rate cuts remain constrained.

Chinese Vice Premier **He Lifeng emphasized China’s continued commitment to free trade and multilateralism in his address at the World Economic Forum. He called for firm support of global trade systems and equitable economic cooperation as central to sustainable growth, pushing back against protectionist pressures.

Market impact: Encouragement of open trade frameworks could bolster investor confidence in global supply chains and international commerce sectors.