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Hong Kong’s preliminary GDP data showed a strong first quarter. GDP grew 5.9% YoY, well above the 3.5% forecast and stronger than the previous 3.8%. On a quarterly basis, GDP expanded 2.9% QoQ, up from 1.0% previously.

The data shows a clear acceleration in economic activity and a stronger-than-expected annual growth performance.

Importance: Medium

Possible Market Effect: Stronger GDP growth may support Hong Kong equities and improve sentiment toward China-linked assets, especially if investors see the data as evidence of better regional demand.

Source: Hong Kong Census and Statistics Department

Hong Kong’s M3 Money Supply growth slowed to 1.2% in March from the previous 2.1%. The data suggests weaker broad liquidity growth in the financial system.

Importance Level: Low

Possible Market Effect:

Slower money supply growth may point to more cautious liquidity conditions, but the direct impact on Hong Kong equities and the Hong Kong dollar is likely limited.

Source: Hong Kong Monetary Authority

China’s official Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3 in April, beating the 50.1 forecast, though slightly below the previous 50.4. However, the Non-Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.4, below the 49.9 forecast and the previous 50.1, moving into contraction territory. The Composite PMI eased to 50.1 from 50.5, showing weaker overall momentum.

The private RatingDog Manufacturing PMI was stronger, rising to 52.2, well above the 50.9 forecast and the previous 50.8.

Importance Level: High for official Manufacturing PMI; Medium for Non-Manufacturing PMI and RatingDog Manufacturing PMI

Possible Market Effect:

The stronger manufacturing readings may support Chinese equities and industrial sentiment, but the weak services signal limits the bullish impact. Markets may interpret the data as mixed: factories are improving, but domestic demand remains uneven.

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China; RatingDog

Hong Kong’s imports rose 41.2% MoM in March, up from the previous 29.9%, while exports increased 35.8%, stronger than the previous 24.7%. Despite the strong trade-flow rebound, the trade balance widened to -89.1B, compared with the previous -64.2B.

Importance Level: Low

Possible Market Effect:

Stronger imports and exports may suggest improving trade activity, but the wider deficit could limit the positive market read-through for the Hong Kong dollar and local equities.

Source: Census and Statistics Department of Hong Kong

China’s industrial profits year-to-date rose 15.5% in March, slightly higher than the previous reading of 15.2%. The improvement points to a modest strengthening in corporate profitability across the industrial sector, suggesting that parts of China’s manufacturing and production base continued to recover.

Importance Level: Low

Possible Market Effect:

The data may offer mild support for Chinese equities and industrial-linked commodities, but the low importance level means the market reaction is likely to remain limited unless confirmed by stronger activity indicators.

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China

China’s FDI fell 7.30% in March, worsening from -5.70% previously. The deeper contraction suggests foreign investment conditions remained weak and that overseas capital inflows into China continued to face pressure.

Importance: Low

Possible Market Effect: The weaker FDI reading is mildly negative for sentiment toward China’s medium-term investment outlook, although near-term market reaction may stay limited unless the trend deepens further.

Source: Ministry of Commerce of China

China left its benchmark lending rates unchanged in April. The 5-year Loan Prime Rate stayed at 3.50%, matching both the forecast and the previous reading, while the 1-year PBoC Loan Prime Rate remained at 3.00%, also in line with expectations and the prior level. The decision signals continued policy stability rather than a fresh round of easing.

Importance: Medium

Possible Market Effect: Holding rates steady may be taken as a sign that Beijing is not yet ready for immediate broad-based stimulus, which is broadly neutral for the yuan and Chinese equities in the short run.

Source: People’s Bank of China / National Interbank Funding Center

Importance: Medium

China’s urban surveyed unemployment rate rose to 5.4% in March from 5.3% and came in above the 5.2% forecast, showing labour-market conditions softened slightly. At the same time, new home prices fell 3.4% YoY, deeper than February’s 3.2% decline, extending the property-sector slump. Reuters described the annual fall as the sharpest in 10 months, underlining that housing demand remains weak even as broader GDP growth held up.

Possible Market Effect:

Higher unemployment and deeper house-price declines are negative for the domestic-demand outlook and can keep pressure on property-linked sentiment. These data also strengthen the case for policymakers to stay supportive if household confidence does not improve.

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China; Reuters.

Importance: High

China’s economy grew 5.0% YoY in Q1, above the 4.8% forecast and faster than 4.5% previously, while quarter-on-quarter GDP rose 1.3%, in line with expectations and up from 1.2%. March activity data were more mixed. Industrial production rose 5.7% YoY, beating the forecast of 5.4% but slowing from 6.3%. Fixed asset investment increased 1.7%, below the 1.9% forecast and slightly below 1.8% previously. Retail sales rose only 1.7%, well below the 2.4% forecast and down from 2.8%. Official NBS data also showed industrial output up 6.1% in Q1 and retail sales up about 2.4% year-to-date, reinforcing the picture of solid headline growth but still-uneven domestic demand.

Possible Market Effect:

The headline GDP beat is supportive for Chinese risk sentiment, but softer retail sales and weak investment show domestic demand is still not fully convincing. That can keep markets constructive on headline growth while staying cautious on consumer and property-linked sectors.

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China; Reuters.

Importance: Medium

China’s March trade data sent a mixed signal. Imports rose 27.8% year-on-year, well above the 11.1% forecast and up from 19.8% previously, but exports slowed to 2.5% year-on-year, far below the 8.3% forecast and sharply down from 21.8% previously. At the same time, the trade surplus narrowed to $51.13 billion from $213.62 billion, while the yuan-denominated surplus fell to 354.75 billion from 1,503.0 billion. The overall picture shows stronger import demand but a much weaker export pace and a far smaller trade cushion.

Possible Market Effect:

The data are mixed for Chinese assets. Stronger imports can be read as a sign of firmer domestic demand, but the sharp slowdown in exports may weigh on growth expectations and keep pressure on China-sensitive equities and industrial commodities.

Source: General Administration of Customs of China (GACC).

Importance: Low

China’s March money and credit data improved sharply from February but still missed forecasts. New loans rose to 2,990.0B from 900.0B, but remained below the 3,465.0B forecast. Total social financing climbed to 5,230.0B from 2,380.0B, yet also missed the 5,400.0B expectation. At the same time, M2 money stock growth slowed to 8.5% YoY from 9.0%, below the 8.9% forecast, while outstanding loan growth eased to 5.8% YoY from 6.0%, slightly under the 5.9% forecast. Together, the figures point to a seasonal rebound in financing activity, but not a strong underlying credit impulse.

Possible Market Effect:

The data are mixed for Chinese assets. The rebound from February helps near-term sentiment, but the broad miss versus forecasts suggests domestic credit demand is still not strong enough to signal a decisive growth reacceleration.

Source: People’s Bank of China (PBoC).

Importance: Medium

China’s Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI rose to 74.60 in April from 72.46 previously. With no forecast shown, the latest reading points to an improvement in consumer sentiment and suggests households became somewhat more confident at the start of the quarter.

Possible Market Effect: The stronger reading may modestly support sentiment around China’s domestic-demand outlook.

Source: Thomson Reuters / Ipsos