EconoTicker

In July 2026, Canada's S&P Global Composite PMI recorded a value of 49.7, surpassing the forecast of 49 and showing an increase from the previous month's reading of 47.9. This indicates a slight recovery in the overall economic activity within the country. Additionally, the S&P Global Services PMI also improved, coming in at 49.1, above the forecast of 48 and up from 47.1 in the prior month. Both indices, however, remain below the neutral mark of 50, suggesting that the economy is still in a contraction phase.

Possible Market Effect: Limited impact due to low importance rating.

Q&A:

Q: What was the actual value of Canada's S&P Global Composite PMI in July 2026?

A: The actual value was 49.7.

Q: Did the S&P Global Services PMI in Canada improve in July 2026?

A: Yes, it improved to 49.1.

Market Sentiment: Neutral - The readings indicate a slight recovery but remain below the neutral level.

On Wednesday, August 5, 2026, Canada held its 2-Year Bond Auction, which resulted in a yield of 2.888%. This marks a decrease from the previous yield of 2.918%. The auction reflects the current sentiment in the bond market, indicating a slight easing in investor expectations.

Possible Market Effect: The decline in yield may suggest a lower demand for bonds, potentially leading to a cautious sentiment among investors.

Q&A:

Q: What was the yield for Canada's 2-Year Bond Auction on August 5, 2026?

A: The yield was 2.888%.

Q: How does the current yield compare to the previous auction?

A: The current yield decreased from the previous auction's yield of 2.918%.

Market Sentiment: Neutral - The slight decline in yield indicates a stable but cautious bond market.

Canada's S&P Global Manufacturing PMI showed a notable increase in August 2026, rising to 53.5, up from the previous month's reading of 53.0 and surpassing the forecast of 51. This positive shift indicates a strengthening manufacturing sector, as the consensus expectation was significantly lower at 50.2. The data, released on Tuesday, August 4, 2026, reflects a robust performance in the Canadian manufacturing landscape, suggesting resilience amid economic challenges.

Possible Market Effect: Positive sentiment towards the Canadian manufacturing sector and potential bullish market reaction.

Q&A:

Q: What was the actual S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for Canada in August 2026?

A: The actual S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for Canada in August 2026 was 53.5.

Q: How did the August 2026 PMI compare to the previous month?

A: The August 2026 PMI increased from the previous month's reading of 53.0.

Market Sentiment: Buy - The strong PMI reading indicates growth in the manufacturing sector, suggesting a favorable economic outlook.

In June 2026, Canada's imports increased to C$73.63 billion, exceeding the forecast of C$70.2 billion and slightly up from the previous month's imports of C$73.49 billion. This data was also released on Tuesday, August 4, 2026, at 12:30 PM.

Possible Market Effect: The rise in imports may indicate increased domestic demand, but it could also widen the trade deficit, affecting the Canadian dollar's performance.

Q&A:

Q: What were Canada's imports in June 2026?

A: Canada's imports in June 2026 were C$73.63 billion.

Q: How do the June 2026 imports compare to the forecast?

A: The June 2026 imports were above the forecast of C$70.2 billion.

Market Sentiment: Neutral - While imports are rising, the implications for trade balance may keep market sentiment cautious.

Canada's exports for June 2026 were reported at C$77.49 billion, surpassing the forecast of C$75.0 billion and showing a slight increase from the previous month's exports of C$77.19 billion. The data was released on Tuesday, August 4, 2026, at 12:30 PM.

Possible Market Effect: The stronger-than-expected export figures could bolster confidence in the Canadian economy, potentially supporting the Canadian dollar.

Q&A:

Q: What were the actual Canadian exports in June 2026?

A: The actual Canadian exports in June 2026 were C$77.49 billion.

Q: How do the June 2026 exports compare to the previous month?

A: The June 2026 exports increased from C$77.19 billion in the previous month.

Market Sentiment: Buy - The positive export data may encourage investment in the Canadian dollar.

In June 2026, Canada reported a balance of trade surplus of C$3.86 billion, falling short of the forecasted surplus of C$4.8 billion. This figure represents a slight increase from the previous month's surplus of C$3.7 billion. The consensus estimate was set at C$3.0 billion, indicating a stronger performance than anticipated. The data was released on Tuesday, August 4, 2026, at 12:30 PM.

Possible Market Effect: The lower-than-expected balance of trade may lead to a cautious sentiment in the Canadian dollar, as it reflects potential weaknesses in trade performance.

Q&A:

Q: What was Canada's balance of trade in June 2026?

A: Canada's balance of trade in June 2026 was C$3.86 billion.

Q: How does the June 2026 balance of trade compare to the forecast?

A: The June 2026 balance of trade was below the forecast of C$4.8 billion.

Market Sentiment: Neutral - The balance of trade surplus is positive but below expectations, leading to mixed market reactions.

In a series of economic updates released on July 31, 2026, Canada reported a positive shift in its budget balance and GDP figures. The budget balance for May showed a deficit of C$-0.31 billion, significantly better than the forecasted deficit of C$-6.4 billion and a previous deficit of C$-1.05 billion. This improvement suggests a tightening of fiscal conditions. Additionally, Canada's GDP for May increased by 0.3%, surpassing the forecast of 0.1% and down from a stronger growth of 0.6% in the previous month. Preliminary data for June also indicated a GDP growth of 0.2%, aligning with expectations. These figures reflect a resilient economy, potentially influencing market sentiment positively.

Possible Market Effect: Positive sentiment towards Canadian assets as economic indicators show improvement.

Q&A:

Q: What was Canada's budget balance in May 2026?

A: Canada's budget balance in May 2026 was a deficit of C$-0.31 billion.

Q: How did Canada's GDP perform in May 2026?

A: Canada's GDP grew by 0.3% in May 2026.

Market Sentiment: Buy - Positive economic indicators suggest a strengthening Canadian economy.

On Thursday, July 30, 2026, Canada held its 5-Year Bond Auction, resulting in a yield of 3.231%. This marks an increase from the previous yield of 3.099%. The auction reflects ongoing trends in the Canadian bond market, although the yield remains below significant thresholds that could indicate a shift in monetary policy. Investors will be watching future auctions for further indications of market sentiment and economic conditions.

Possible Market Effect: Limited impact on the bond market due to the low importance of the event.

Q&A:

Q: What was the yield of Canada's 5-Year Bond Auction on July 30, 2026?

A: The yield was 3.231%.

Q: How does the current yield compare to the previous auction?

A: The current yield increased from the previous auction's yield of 3.099%.

Market Sentiment: Neutral - The yield increase is modest and does not signal a major shift in market conditions.

In a report released on Thursday, July 30, 2026, Canada's average weekly earnings year-over-year growth was recorded at 3.4%. This figure fell short of the forecasted growth of 3.7% and is a decline from the previous month's growth of 3.67%. The data indicates a slowdown in wage growth, which may have implications for consumer spending and overall economic momentum.

Possible Market Effect: Potentially negative impact on consumer sentiment and spending.

Q&A:

Q: What was the actual average weekly earnings growth in Canada for July 2026?

A: The actual average weekly earnings growth was 3.4%.

Q: How does the July 2026 earnings growth compare to the previous month?

A: It decreased from the previous month's growth of 3.67%.

Market Sentiment: Neutral - The earnings growth is below expectations, indicating potential economic concerns.

On Thursday, July 23, 2026, Canada reported a robust performance in its retail sector for May. Retail sales excluding automobiles increased by 1.2%, surpassing the forecast of 1.1% and significantly up from the previous month's stagnation at 0%. The final retail sales data for May also reflected a solid growth of 1%, matching expectations and improving from April's 0.4% increase. However, preliminary data for June indicated a slowdown, with retail sales rising by only 0.4%, consistent with forecasts but down from the previous month’s 1.0% growth. Year-on-year retail sales surged by 5.9%, well above the anticipated 3.5%, indicating strong consumer demand.

Possible Market Effect: Positive sentiment in the retail sector may lead to increased consumer confidence and spending.

Q&A:

Q: What was the actual retail sales growth excluding autos in Canada for May 2026?

A: The actual retail sales growth excluding autos was 1.2% in May 2026.

Q: How did the year-on-year retail sales compare to forecasts in Canada for May 2026?

A: The year-on-year retail sales in Canada for May 2026 were 5.9%, exceeding the forecast of 3.5%.

Market Sentiment: Buy - Strong retail sales figures suggest a healthy economy and consumer confidence.

The CFIB Business Barometer for Canada showed a significant increase in small business sentiment, rising to 58.3 in July 2026, up from a previous reading of 50.1 and surpassing the forecast of 49.9. This positive shift indicates a growing optimism among small business owners, reflecting improved confidence in the economic environment. The data was released on Thursday, July 23, at 11:00 AM.

Possible Market Effect: Positive sentiment may lead to increased investment and spending among small businesses.

Q&A:

Q: What was the CFIB Business Barometer reading for Canada in July 2026?

A: The CFIB Business Barometer reading for Canada in July 2026 was 58.3.

Q: How does the July 2026 reading compare to the previous month?

A: The July 2026 reading of 58.3 is an increase from the previous month's reading of 50.1.

Market Sentiment: Neutral - While the sentiment is positive, the overall impact on the market remains to be seen.

On Wednesday, July 22, 2026, Canada conducted its 10-Year Bond Auction, resulting in a yield of 3.622%. This figure marks an increase from the previous yield of 3.453%. The auction reflects the current market conditions and investor sentiment towards Canadian government bonds.

Possible Market Effect: The rise in bond yield may indicate a slight increase in borrowing costs, affecting investor sentiment towards Canadian bonds.

Q&A:

Q: What was the yield of Canada's 10-Year Bond Auction on July 22, 2026?

A: The yield was 3.622%.

Q: How does the current yield compare to the previous auction?

A: The current yield increased from the previous auction's yield of 3.453%.

Market Sentiment: Neutral - The increase in yield suggests stable demand for bonds, but the low importance indicates limited immediate market impact.