EconoTicker

On September 16, 2026, Canada reported a significant decline in building permits, with a month-over-month decrease of 17.3%, far worse than the forecasted drop of 5.6% and a stark contrast to the previous month's increase of 18.3%. This sharp decline indicates potential challenges in the construction sector. Conversely, housing starts for August remained stable at 229,000 units, slightly below the forecast of 232,000 units and consistent with the previous month's figure of 229,400 units. The consensus estimate for housing starts was 240,000 units, suggesting a cautious outlook for new residential construction.

Possible Market Effect: The decline in building permits may signal a slowdown in future construction activity, potentially affecting related sectors negatively.

Q&A:

Q: What was the actual percentage change in Canada's building permits for July 2026?

A: The actual percentage change in Canada's building permits for July 2026 was a decrease of 17.3%.

Q: How did the housing starts in Canada for August 2026 compare to the forecast?

A: The housing starts in Canada for August 2026 were 229,000 units, which was below the forecast of 232,000 units.

Market Sentiment: Neutral - The mixed data suggests stability in housing starts but concerns over future construction activity due to falling building permits.

Canada's wholesale sales for July 2026 recorded a month-over-month increase of 0.3%, significantly exceeding the forecasted decline of -0.6% and the previous month's growth of 2.8%. This unexpected growth suggests resilience in the wholesale sector, which could positively influence overall economic sentiment. The data was also released on Tuesday, September 15, at 12:30 PM.

Possible Market Effect: Potentially bullish for the wholesale sector.

Q&A:

Q: What was the month-over-month change in Canada's wholesale sales for July 2026?

A: The month-over-month change in Canada's wholesale sales for July 2026 was an increase of 0.3%.

Q: How did the actual wholesale sales compare to the forecast?

A: The actual sales growth of 0.3% was significantly better than the forecasted decline of -0.6%.

Market Sentiment: Buy - The unexpected growth in wholesale sales indicates strong market performance and consumer confidence.

In July 2026, Canada reported new motor vehicle sales at 176.2K, falling short of the forecasted 190.1K and down from the previous month's 190.2K. This decline indicates a slowdown in consumer demand for new vehicles, which may have implications for the automotive sector's performance in the coming months. The data was released on Tuesday, September 15, at 12:30 PM.

Possible Market Effect: Potentially bearish for the automotive sector.

Q&A:

Q: What were the new motor vehicle sales figures for Canada in July 2026?

A: The new motor vehicle sales in Canada for July 2026 were 176.2K.

Q: How did the actual new motor vehicle sales compare to the forecast?

A: The actual sales were below the forecast of 190.1K.

Market Sentiment: Neutral - The decline in sales may indicate weakening demand, but the overall impact on the market remains to be seen.

On September 14, 2026, Canada released several key economic indicators reflecting a mixed economic landscape. The Core Inflation Rate year-over-year for August came in at 2.4%, slightly above the forecast of 2.3%, indicating a stable inflation environment. However, the month-over-month Core Inflation Rate remained unchanged at 0.1%, matching expectations but lower than the previous month's 0.2%.

The overall Inflation Rate year-over-year held steady at 3.0%, aligning with forecasts, while the month-over-month Inflation Rate dipped to -0.1%, contrasting with the anticipated 0.1% increase. Capacity Utilization also fell short of expectations, reported at 80.7% against a forecast of 82.4%.

In the manufacturing sector, sales decreased by 0.4% in July, worse than the forecasted decline of 0.2%. These mixed signals suggest that while inflation remains stable, other economic indicators may point to potential challenges ahead for the Canadian economy.

Possible Market Effect: The mixed economic signals may lead to a cautious market sentiment, with investors closely monitoring inflation trends and manufacturing performance.

Q&A:

Q: What was the actual Core Inflation Rate YoY for Canada in August 2026?

A: The actual Core Inflation Rate YoY was 2.4%.

Q: How did the Manufacturing Sales MoM perform in July 2026 in Canada?

A: Manufacturing Sales MoM decreased by 0.4% in July 2026.

Market Sentiment: Neutral - The mixed economic indicators suggest a wait-and-see approach among investors.

On Wednesday, September 9, 2026, Canada held its 5-Year Bond Auction, resulting in a yield of 3.517%. This figure marks an increase from the previous yield of 3.344%. The auction reflects the current market conditions and investor sentiment towards Canadian government securities.

Possible Market Effect: The increase in bond yield may indicate a slight rise in borrowing costs, potentially affecting investor appetite for Canadian bonds.

Q&A:

Q: What was the yield of Canada's 5-Year Bond Auction on September 9, 2026?

A: The yield was 3.517%.

Q: How does the current yield compare to the previous auction?

A: The current yield increased from the previous yield of 3.344%.

Market Sentiment: Neutral - The bond yield increase is modest and reflects typical market fluctuations.

In a surprising turn of events, Canada's Ivey Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for August 2026 has soared to 64.3, significantly surpassing the forecast of 55.7 and the previous month's reading of 55.1. This strong performance indicates robust business confidence and suggests a positive outlook for the Canadian economy. The consensus estimate was set at 56.2, highlighting the strength of the actual figure. The Ivey PMI, released on Friday, September 4, 2026, is a key indicator of economic health, reflecting the purchasing activity of Canadian businesses.

Possible Market Effect: Positive sentiment towards Canadian economic growth and potential strengthening of the CAD.

Q&A:

Q: What was the actual Ivey PMI for Canada in August 2026?

A: The actual Ivey PMI was 64.3.

Q: How does the August 2026 Ivey PMI compare to the forecast?

A: It significantly exceeded the forecast of 55.7.

Market Sentiment: Buy - The strong Ivey PMI suggests increased economic activity and confidence.

In a recent report released on September 4, 2026, Canada's unemployment rate remained unchanged at 6.4%, matching both the forecast and the previous month's figure. However, the labor market showed signs of distress as the country experienced a significant employment change with a loss of 41,700 jobs, far below the forecast of a gain of 10,000 jobs. Full-time employment also declined by 35,900 positions, while part-time employment saw a decrease of 5,800 jobs. Average hourly wages rose by 2% year-on-year, falling short of the anticipated 2.9% increase. The labor force participation rate was reported at 65%, slightly below the forecast of 65.2%. These figures indicate a challenging economic landscape for Canada as it navigates through employment fluctuations.

Possible Market Effect: Negative sentiment towards Canadian labor market stability.

Q&A:

Q: What was the unemployment rate in Canada for August 2026?

A: The unemployment rate in Canada for August 2026 was 6.4%.

Q: How many jobs were lost in Canada during August 2026?

A: Canada experienced a loss of 41,700 jobs in August 2026.

Market Sentiment: Sell - The significant job losses and lower wage growth may lead to negative market sentiment.

On Thursday, September 3, 2026, Canada held its 2-Year Bond Auction, which resulted in a yield of 3.164%. This figure marks an increase from the previous yield of 3.023%. The auction reflects the current market conditions and investor sentiment towards Canadian government debt.

Possible Market Effect: The increase in bond yield may indicate a slight shift in investor confidence, potentially leading to a cautious approach in the bond market.

Q&A:

Q: What was the yield for Canada's 2-Year Bond Auction on September 3, 2026?

A: The yield was 3.164%.

Q: How does the current yield compare to the previous auction?

A: The current yield increased from the previous yield of 3.023%.

Market Sentiment: Neutral - The bond yield increase is modest and does not indicate a strong market trend.

In a disappointing turn of events, Canada's S&P Global Composite PMI fell to 47.8 in August 2026, down from the previous month's reading of 49.7 and below the forecast of 48.9. Similarly, the S&P Global Services PMI also experienced a decline, recording an actual value of 46.8, compared to the anticipated 49 and the prior month's figure of 49.1. These figures indicate a contraction in economic activity within the composite and services sectors, raising concerns about the overall economic health of Canada as it heads into the fall season.

Possible Market Effect: The decline in PMI figures may lead to a bearish sentiment in the Canadian market, reflecting concerns over economic growth.

Q&A:

Q: What was the actual reading of Canada's S&P Global Composite PMI in August 2026?

A: The actual reading was 47.8.

Q: How did the S&P Global Services PMI perform in August 2026 compared to the forecast?

A: The S&P Global Services PMI recorded 46.8, which was below the forecast of 49.

Market Sentiment: Neutral - The PMI decline suggests economic contraction, but the overall market sentiment remains cautious rather than overtly negative.

Canada's labor productivity for the second quarter of 2026 increased by 1%, a notable improvement from the previous quarter's decline of 0.4% and surpassing the forecast of 0.1%. This positive change suggests a strengthening in productivity levels within the Canadian economy. The data was released on Thursday, September 3, 2026, at 12:30 PM.

Possible Market Effect: Positive sentiment may emerge in the market due to the improvement in labor productivity.

Q&A:

Q: What was the labor productivity growth in Canada for Q2 2026?

A: The labor productivity growth was 1%.

Q: How did the actual productivity compare to the forecast?

A: It significantly exceeded the forecast of 0.1%.

Market Sentiment: Buy - The increase in productivity is a positive sign for the economy.

In July 2026, Canada's exports totaled C$76.14 billion, falling short of the forecast of C$77.0 billion and down from the previous month's C$77.96 billion. Meanwhile, imports rose to C$75.37 billion, exceeding the forecast of C$73.8 billion and slightly up from C$73.76 billion in June. These figures indicate a mixed performance in trade, with exports declining while imports increased. The data was released on Thursday, September 3, 2026, at 12:30 PM.

Possible Market Effect: The mixed results may lead to a neutral sentiment in the market regarding Canada's trade outlook.

Q&A:

Q: What were Canada's exports in July 2026?

A: Canada's exports were C$76.14 billion.

Q: Did Canada's imports exceed the forecast in July 2026?

A: Yes, imports were C$75.37 billion, exceeding the forecast of C$73.8 billion.

Market Sentiment: Neutral - The mixed results may not significantly impact market sentiment.

Canada's Balance of Trade for July 2026 reported a surplus of C$0.77 billion, significantly lower than the forecast of C$3.2 billion and the previous month's surplus of C$4.2 billion. This decline indicates a weakening trade position, as the consensus anticipated a more favorable outcome. The data was released on Thursday, September 3, 2026, at 12:30 PM.

Possible Market Effect: Negative sentiment towards the Canadian dollar may arise due to the disappointing trade figures.

Q&A:

Q: What was the actual Balance of Trade for Canada in July 2026?

A: The actual Balance of Trade was C$0.77 billion.

Q: How did the July 2026 Balance of Trade compare to the forecast?

A: It was significantly lower than the forecast of C$3.2 billion.

Market Sentiment: Sell - The negative trade balance could lead to a bearish outlook for the Canadian dollar.