English
پارسی
Energy: Oil supported by China data and a softer dollar
- Brent: $64.13/bbl (+0.3%)
- WTI Feb (expires today): $59.69/bbl (+0.4%)
- WTI Mar (most active): $59.42/bbl (+0.13%)
- WTI did not settle on Monday due to the U.S. Martin Luther King Jr. Day holiday.
What’s driving it
- China growth optimism: China’s economy reportedly grew 5.0% in 2025, meeting the target, with refinery throughput up 4.1% y/y and crude output up 1.5%, both at record highs—supporting near-term demand sentiment.
- USD weakness: A softer dollar mechanically supports dollar-denominated commodities and improves affordability for non-USD buyers.
Key watchpoints
- Trade-war risk premium: Markets are monitoring President Trump’s tariff threats tied to Greenland, including talk of additional levies from February 1 and potentially higher rates by June 1 if no deal is reached. That can raise volatility and alter demand expectations.
- Venezuela/Russia flows: Discounted Venezuelan barrels to China and shifting Russian Urals flows (amid sanctions dynamics) remain relevant for regional pricing and spreads.
FX & Rates: “Sell America” pressure on USD; BoJ and Japan politics in focus
- Dollar index: 98.70 (down ~0.3%, lowest since Jan 13)
- EUR/USD: $1.1658 (up ~0.1%)
- GBP/USD: $1.3437 (up ~0.1%)
- USD/JPY: 157.905 (slightly lower), with the yen watched closely ahead of the BoJ.
Japan: the rates–politics crosscurrent
- BoJ: Meeting ends Friday; policy rate is 0.75% after December’s hike. Markets are focused on whether the BoJ signals readiness to hike again, given yen weakness and wage/inflation dynamics.
- Politics: Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi called a snap election for February 8, adding fiscal-policy uncertainty.
- Rates stress: The 10-year JGB yield hit ~2.30% (27-year high), highlighting sensitivity to fiscal credibility and supply/demand for duration.
Institutional positioning
- An Australian mega-fund (ART) is reportedly increasing FX hedging on USD exposure, reflecting the view that prospective U.S. rate cuts and policy uncertainty could weaken the dollar.
Metals: Gold extends to fresh records on geopolitical uncertainty and USD softness
- Spot gold: $4,696/oz (+0.4%); briefly near $4,702/oz record territory
- Gold futures (Feb): $4,701.96/oz (+0.5%)
- Silver: $94.289/oz (-0.1%) after recent highs
- Platinum: $2,361.47/oz (-0.6%)
- Copper (LME): $12,927.58/tonne (-0.4%), still near elevated levels
Takeaway: The market is paying up for geopolitical hedges; gold is benefiting from both risk aversion and USD depreciation.
Europe: Swiss PPI reinforces the disinflation pulse
- Switzerland PPI (y/y): -1.8%
- This is a clean signal that producer-level price pressures remain negative, supporting the “disinflation in the pipeline” narrative that can matter for broader European inflation expectations.
Equities: Asia cautious; attention shifts to U.S. cash reopening
Asian equities were generally risk-averse as Greenland-related headlines kept uncertainty elevated. With U.S. markets returning from a holiday, U.S. cash trading today is likely to provide the next decisive cue for risk appetite.
Practical positioning notes
- Oil: Supported by China demand optics + softer USD, but headline risk on tariffs/Greenland can swing sentiment quickly.
- USD: Under pressure from policy/geopolitical uncertainty; watch for confirmation via U.S. rates and equity flows.
- Gold: Strong bid as the market’s preferred hedge; risk is short-term profit-taking after record prints.
- Japan: BoJ communication + election/fiscal optics are the key macro volatility catalysts this week.
If you want, paste your preferred template (Economician daily update format), and I’ll repackage this into your publication-ready structure.
Comments