Weekly Market Outlook — Week 48, 2025: A Shortened Trading Week Ahead

This week’s outlook examines how fresh inflation and growth data could influence Federal Reserve expectations, the extent to which U.S. dollar resilience shapes global risk sentiment, and how these dynamics may filter through equities, currencies, commodities, and the crypto space. We will also assess whether recent shifts in investor positioning are likely to continue or stabilise as the month draws to a close.

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USA

The U.S. economy is still on track for moderate growth—around 2.3% in 2025—though the underlying momentum is clearly transitioning toward a slower, more balanced pace.

U.S. Economy Weekly Review – Resilient Growth, Subtle Cooling Beneath the Surface

The latest U.S. economic indicators portray an economy that continues to expand at a steady pace, even as early signs of cooling become more apparent in the labour market, housing sector, and certain manufacturing sectors. Forward-looking measures—including the PMI surveys and the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate—still point to healthy near-term growth, but softer wage trends and easing job creation suggest the economy is steadily moving through a late-cycle adjustment phase.

After delays caused by the recent government shutdown, a wave of postponed data releases has finally begun to arrive, offering a mixed backdrop ahead of the Federal Reserve’s December meeting. The September employment report showed the economy added 119,000 jobs, alongside downward revisions to previous months and a gradual rise in the unemployment rate to 4.44%. Together, the numbers indicate a labour market that remains functional but is losing some of its previous heat. With underlying inflation relatively contained—aside from tariff-related distortions—many analysts still see a strong case for a 25-basis-point rate cut in December.

However, divisions within the Fed have grown more noticeable. Several policymakers, including Goolsbee and Collins, view the current policy settings as appropriate and caution against making too many changes too quickly. Others, such as Williams, Waller, and Miran, argue that easing sooner would better support cooling economic momentum. October’s FOMC minutes highlighted this split, showing a committee that is broadly inclined to hold rates steady but with a meaningful minority leaning toward further accommodation. Markets ended the week pricing in a slightly higher probability of a December cut.

The housing sector continues to struggle under the weight of high borrowing costs. While existing home sales rose 1.2% in October as mortgage rates eased modestly, affordability constraints and the lock-in effect still limit activity. Construction spending showed a mild improvement but remains 1.6% lower than a year ago due to elevated financing and building expenses. Even with expected Fed easing in 2025, high long-term yields are likely to cap any major housing rebound.

U.S. Economy – A Data-Driven Look at Growth, Jobs, Inflation, and Financial Conditions

The latest flow of U.S. economic data continues to paint a picture of an economy that is growing at a steady but moderating pace. Services remain the primary driver of expansion, while manufacturing shows a more uneven performance. The November S&P Global PMIs kept the Composite Index at a solid 54.8, with Services at 55.0—both consistent with healthy, broad-based activity. Manufacturing eased to 51.9, still in expansion but at a gentler pace. Regional surveys added nuance: the Empire State Manufacturing Index surged to 18.7, signalling an improvement in New York–area conditions, while the Philadelphia Fed Index, despite improving from the prior month, remained in contraction at –1.7, with weak new orders and firmer input costs.

Hard data confirmed this mixed backdrop. August factory orders rose 1.4% after falling the prior month, though core orders excluding transportation increased just 0.1%. Durable goods ex-defence rose 1.9%, but the ex-transportation figure—up only 0.3%—reinforced the view of moderate capital spending rather than a strong upswing. Construction spending improved 0.2%, consistent with stable but subdued building activity. The external sector offered support, with the August trade deficit narrowing to $59.6 billion and TIC data showing strong long-term capital inflows. These flows, combined with solid domestic demand, helped push the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate to 4.2% for Q4.

The labour market continues to cool without experiencing a sharp downturn. September’s nonfarm payrolls showed a gain of 119,000 jobs—beating expectations—though manufacturing payrolls slipped by 6,000. The unemployment rate edged up to 4.4%, yet labour force participation increased to 62.4%, indicating more people are re-entering the job market even as hiring moderates. Initial jobless claims climbed to 232,000, and continuing claims trended toward 2 million, suggesting job seekers are taking longer to find new positions. ADP’s weekly private-sector data showed a small decline of 2,500 jobs, underscoring more cautious hiring patterns.

Wage dynamics further confirm the cooling trend. Average hourly earnings rose just 0.2% month-on-month and 3.8% year-on-year, well below earlier peaks. Real earnings fell 0.1%—an improvement from previous declines, but still a challenge for purchasing power. Consumer sentiment remains fragile: the University of Michigan survey showed one-year inflation expectations easing to 4.5% and five-year expectations down to 3.4%, but overall sentiment dropped to 51.0, reflecting continued household stress.

Consumer spending remains mixed but not weak. Redbook retail sales were up a solid 6.1% year-on-year. Earnings from major retailers supported this trend, with Walmart and TJX reporting stronger-than-expected results. Nvidia also delivered another earnings beat, highlighting continued investment in AI and data-centre infrastructure.

Housing remains a key soft spot. The NAHB Housing Market Index inched up to 38, still signalling weak builder confidence. Mortgage rates hovered around 6.37%, pushing mortgage applications down 5.2% week-on-week. Both purchase and refinance activity slipped, reflecting the drag of higher borrowing costs. Construction spending provides modest support, but the sector overall remains constrained.

In financial markets, Treasury auctions cleared at slightly higher yields, consistent with a “higher-for-longer” rate environment. The U.S. dollar firmed slightly, with markets pricing only around a 40% chance of a December Fed rate cut. Strong capital inflows and a narrower trade deficit continue to support domestic financial conditions.

Overall, the week’s data points to an economy that remains resilient but is gradually cooling—moving away from the overheating risks of the past year and toward a more balanced, albeit uneven, expansion.

U.S. Economic Outlook – Week of 24–29 November 2025

The final week of November is shorter because of the Thanksgiving holiday, but it is also one of the most important weeks of the entire fourth quarter. With several key economic reports delayed by the government shutdown, the Federal Reserve is now receiving a concentrated wave of critical data—September retail sales, PPI, durable goods, Q3 GDP (second estimate), and the all-important PCE inflation report—just days before the December 9–10 FOMC meeting. Since October CPI was cancelled and November CPI and labour-market data will only be published after that meeting, this week’s numbers carry disproportionate influence over the Fed’s next move.

Markets are entering the week with three major reference points. First, the economy remains stronger than expected: Q2 GDP grew at an annualised 3.8%, and the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model is pointing to an even firmer 4.2% pace for Q3. Second, the labour market surprised to the upside in September, adding 119K jobs despite rising unemployment to 4.4%. And third, the Fed remains deeply divided. The probability of a December rate cut climbed sharply—from around 40% early in the week to nearly 60–70%—after dovish comments from New York Fed President John Williams. The message is clear: any downside surprise in the data strengthens the case for a third consecutive cut; any upside surprise revives “no-cut” pricing.

Tuesday, November 25 — Retail, PPI, Housing, Confidence

Tuesday brings the first major wave of shutdown-delayed September data. Retail sales will be watched most closely, particularly the headline, core categories, and the control group, which feeds directly into GDP. Markets expect a modest but positive month. PPI and core PPI arrive the same morning, serving as a critical pipeline inflation measure in the absence of October CPI. Housing data include Case-Shiller home prices and Pending Home Sales, while Business Inventories and Consumer Confidence add context on stock levels and household sentiment.

Consumer confidence remains under pressure. The Conference Board index fell in October to 94.6—its third straight decline—reflecting fewer job opportunities and growing concerns about future income. The November reading likely slipped again toward the 93 range, though the end of the shutdown may lend some support in December.

Retail activity remains resilient despite weakening sentiment. Sales rose 0.6% in August, driven by strong online spending and restaurant demand. Growth is expected to slow to a 0.4% gain in September as middle- and lower-income households face tighter budgets and softer wage growth.

Wednesday, November 26 — The Most Important Day

Wednesday is the data centrepiece of the week. At 08:30 ET, markets receive jobless claims, September durable goods, the Q3 GDP second estimate, and—most importantly—the September PCE and Core PCE inflation numbers. With no October CPI and no November inflation data before the meeting, this PCE release becomes the Fed’s single most important inflation input.

Durable goods orders showed strong momentum in August, jumping 2.9%. September is expected to post another solid 1.0% rise, supported by technology-related investment and improved aircraft bookings.

Thursday, November 27 — Thanksgiving

Markets are closed. Focus shifts to early Black Friday spending signals, which will help shape the early Q4 consumption outlook.

Event of the Week — PCE Inflation

The September and Q3 PCE reports are expected to reinforce the soft-landing narrative: inflation cooling steadily while consumer spending gradually normalises. Core PCE is projected to rise 0.2% month-over-month, keeping the annual rate at 2.9%. Headline PCE is also expected to hold near 2.7%, with most remaining pressure coming from energy. On a quarterly basis, Q3 PCE inflation is expected to be at 2.1%, supporting the view that cost pressures continue to ease.

For policymakers, this combination—cooling inflation, stable incomes, and moderating spending—signals an economy moving toward balance without falling into recession. For markets, the risks tilt slightly dovish: softer data strengthens the argument for a December cut, while stronger-than-expected inflation or spending could quickly reverse that narrative.

In essence, inflation is behaving exactly as the Fed hoped heading into the final stretch of 2025: cooling, stable, and increasingly non-threatening.

USD and Wall Street – What to Expect in the Week Ahead

The coming week places both the U.S. Dollar and Wall Street in a tight holding pattern as markets brace for a trio of critical data points: PCE inflation, retail sales, and durable goods. With investors increasingly convinced that the economy is moving toward a soft landing—characterised by easing inflation and slower but still positive consumer spending—markets are highly sensitive to whether incoming data confirm or contradict that narrative.

If the data align with expectations, the dollar is likely to drift sideways to slightly lower, while U.S. equities should find room to stabilise with a mild pro-growth bias. But any upside surprise—firmer inflation, hotter spending, or stronger business investment—could quickly revive “no-cut” pricing, lift yields, and pressure equity valuations, especially in tech and AI sectors where expectations remain lofty.

US Dollar: Slightly Dovish Lean, but Still Data-Dependent

The dollar heads into the week caught between softer Fed expectations and economic data that remains surprisingly resilient. The Fed’s stance is now firmly data-dependent, with a tilt toward easing but no commitment to act unless the indicators justify it.

If this week’s figures broadly match forecasts—PCE in line, retail sales slowing modestly but staying positive, durable goods steady, and jobless claims contained—markets will lean more dovish on the Fed. In that environment, DXY typically drifts sideways or slightly lower. The dollar is not in a bearish trend; it is simply somewhat over-owned and vulnerable to mild cooling if the soft-landing story stays intact.

However, the upside risk is real. Stronger-than-expected retail sales, a pickup in core control, re-acceleration in durable goods or capex, or inflation readings that refuse to ease would immediately push investors away from the rate-cut narrative. That would lift front-end Treasury yields and support the dollar broadly, especially against currencies with more dovish central banks.

Technical Setup

• Trend: Still in a short-term uptrend, holding above a rising trendline and the 20-day EMA.
• Momentum: RSI near 51 signals neutral momentum after cooling from overbought levels.
• Support: 100.00 first, then 99.60–99.80 (trendline / EMA zone).
• Resistance: 100.15–100.30; a break above opens further upside.
• Flow: OBV surged during the recent rally and is now stabilising—buying pressure has paused, not reversed.

Overall, the dollar remains stable but hypersensitive to data surprises.

Wall Street: Cautious Mood Ahead of PCE and Growth Data

U.S. equities enter the week in a delicate balance. Economic reports show growth that is cooling but still healthy, and inflation that is easing in a controlled fashion—conditions that, in theory, support risk assets. Yet markets remain trapped between optimism over potential early rate cuts and anxiety over a “higher for longer” scenario that would hit multiples, especially in megacap tech.

The key question is whether the economy is transitioning from “hot” to “warm” or is still running near a 3–4% real growth pace. Moderate slowing is equity-friendly. A too-strong combination of spending and capex is not.

S&P 500 Technical Picture

• Trend: Medium-term trend remains bullish with higher highs and higher lows since June, but price action has shifted into a near-term correction after failing near 6908.
• Momentum: RSI around 43 and price sitting at/below the falling 20-day EMA (near 6723) reflects soft momentum.
• Support: 6620 near-term; 6500–6420 is the key demand zone. A break below 6420 risks a deeper move toward 6150.
• Resistance: 6720–6730 initially, with 6908 as the major upside target.
• Flow: Volume increased on the recent decline, and OBV has turned choppy, suggesting some distribution without a full breakdown.

Bottom Line

Both the dollar and U.S. equities are entering a data-heavy week where the market reaction will depend entirely on whether the numbers reinforce or challenge the soft-landing narrative. As long as the data comes in moderately and orderly, USD should remain range-bound, and Wall Street can stabilise. But hotter-than-expected readings would quickly swing the pendulum back toward tighter policy expectations—lifting the dollar and weighing on stocks.

New Zealand and RBNZ Policy Outlook

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is set to announce its next policy decision this coming week, and the tone is clearly leaning toward further easing. Our base case remains a 25-basis-point rate cut, which would bring the Official Cash Rate down to 2.25%, aligning with both market pricing and the broader macro backdrop.

At its early-October meeting, the RBNZ delivered a larger-than-expected 50 bps cut, pointing to subdued economic momentum and rising spare capacity. Since then, data has largely validated that assessment. The third-quarter labour market report was particularly soft: employment fell 0.6% year-over-year, unemployment climbed to 5.3%, and wage growth slowed notably. While headline inflation ticked up to 3.0% YoY from 2.7%, the increase appears heavily influenced by temporary factors rather than underlying demand pressures. In this environment, another modest cut next week looks not only likely but appropriate.

Oceania Weekly Economic Review: Firm Labour Costs, Weak Demand, and Pressure from a Strong USD

Across Australia and New Zealand, economic indicators continue to reflect a classic late-cycle landscape. Labour costs remain firm, but no longer accelerating; meanwhile, the demand side of the economy shows clear signs of fatigue. The global tech selloff and strength in the U.S. dollar created additional headwinds, weighing on both the AUD and NZD and softening local equity performance.

In New Zealand, last week’s data reinforced a narrative of weak domestic demand and easing inflation:

• Performance of Services Index (Oct): 48.7 (still below 50, signalling contraction)
• Food Price Index (Oct): –0.3% MoM, continuing the trend of easing consumer-level price pressures

Upstream cost indicators also remain contained:

• PPI Input (Q3): +0.2% QoQ (well below expectations)
• PPI Output (Q3): +0.6% QoQ (unchanged from Q2)

Together, these figures describe an economy where demand is soft, pricing power is limited, and cost pressures are gradually easing—conditions that support the RBNZ’s confidence that inflation is trending back toward safer territory.

Financial flows also remained stable:

• Offshore bond holdings (Oct): 58.6%, up from 57.8%, suggesting continued integration with global markets.

On the currency front, the NZD largely mirrored regional developments. A stronger USD, combined with cautious global sentiment, kept the kiwi under pressure, while weak domestic indicators offered little reason for a rebound.

Bottom line on New Zealand:

The economy remains in a soft patch—services contracting, inflation cooling, and external positioning stable. For policymakers, this backdrop argues for a “hold, with a mild easing bias” approach, so long as currency markets remain orderly.

NZD/USD – Technical Picture

NZD/USD retains a bearish structure while it remains below 0.5688 and the descending trendline. A decisive move above that region is needed to even begin forming a base.

• Trend: Clear downtrend since July, defined by lower highs and lower lows.
• Structure: Breaking below 0.5688 turned it into a firm resistance zone. The current price near 0.5608 is still below trendline resistance.
• Momentum: RSI around 36 indicates weak momentum, close to oversold but without a convincing reversal setup.
• Flow: OBV continues to drift lower, signalling sustained selling pressure.
• Key Levels:
• Resistance: 0.5688, then 0.5828
• Support: 0.5600/0.5580 immediate; major support at 0.5500
• A daily close below 0.5500 opens risk toward 0.5400–0.5300

Gold Market — Current Conditions and Weekly Outlook

Gold enters the week on a firm footing, supported by steady ETF inflows and consistent central-bank buying. However, despite the strong structural backdrop, price action remains tactically range-bound as traders wait for fresh U.S. data—especially on inflation and growth—to refine expectations ahead of the Federal Reserve’s December meeting. Near-term bias remains mildly constructive above $4,000, with a clearer bullish signal emerging only if prices can secure a daily close above $4,100–$ 4,120.

Fundamental Backdrop

• ETF demand remains a key pillar of support. Physically backed gold ETFs recorded their fifth straight month of inflows in October, adding around $8.2 billion—a sign of resilient institutional appetite.
• Positioning has cooled, but remains constructive. After the data delays caused by the government shutdown, speculative positioning has normalised. CFTC net-longs sit below September highs but remain positive, suggesting the market is less crowded and has room to rebuild long exposure if macro signals turn supportive.
• Central-bank buying continues. Persistent official-sector demand is giving gold a firm structural floor, helping the market absorb sell-offs even when risk sentiment temporarily improves.
• Macro sensitivity remains elevated. Short-term direction is still tightly linked to U.S. real yields and the dollar. The recent pushback against aggressive Fed rate-cut expectations—and a steadier USD—have kept gold capped near the upper end of its range.

Weekly Outlook — Key Drivers and Market Scenarios

With the U.S. entering a holiday-shortened Thanksgiving week, thinner liquidity may amplify reactions to major data releases. Key catalysts include:

• U.S. PCE inflation (Oct)
• Durable Goods Orders (Sep)
• Initial Jobless Claims
• Q3 GDP – second estimate
• Shutdown-delayed releases such as PPI and retail sales, plus several Fed speakers who could shift policy expectations quickly.

Scenario Outlook

Bullish Case:

• If PCE and activity data show cooling inflation and slower growth, markets will lean more confidently toward rate cuts. That would ease real yields and support a gradual move toward the $4,100–4,120 breakout zone.

Bearish Case:

• If inflation re-accelerates or growth surprises on the upside, yields and the dollar could rebound, pushing gold back toward $4,020–$4,000. A broad USD rally remains the clearest downside pressure point.

Technical View

Trend:

• Medium-term structure remains bullish after the powerful August–October rally. Prices remain above the rising EMA50 (~$3,953), though recent action reflects consolidation after the spike.

Price vs. Moving Averages:

• Gold is currently stabilising around the EMA20 (~$4,062), consistent with a short-term range-bound setup.

Momentum/Flow:

• RSI around 52 signals neutral momentum. OBV has flattened since the October peak, indicating buying pressure has cooled but not turned decisively lower.

Key Levels

Resistance:

• $4,100–$4,150 (range ceiling). A decisive break above $4,150 opens upside toward $4,380.

Support:

• $4,045–$4,000 is the first major demand area. A break below this range risks a deeper move toward $3,876, then the EMA50.

Bottom Line

Gold retains a strong structural foundation but remains directionally constrained in the near term. Holding above $4,000 keeps the medium-term bullish outlook intact. However, a confirmed break above $4,150 is required to unlock the next leg higher.

Energy Market — Current Conditions & Weekly Outlook

The energy market enters the new week in a noticeably softer phase. Brent crude is holding near $62 per barrel, while WTI trades in the upper $50s, with prices edging lower as traders focus on abundant supply and uneven demand signals across major consuming regions. Sentiment remains cautious, and although there are pockets of geopolitical risk, fundamentals continue to dominate the short-term trend.

Supply Narrative: OPEC+ Caution but Limited Impact

OPEC+ recently confirmed a small 137 kb/d production increase for December but signalled it will pause further hikes in Q1 2026. This shift reflects concerns that winter demand may not absorb incremental supply. While the pause offers some support on the downside, it has not meaningfully altered the larger bearish tone pressing on the market.

Inventories & Forward Balance Outlook

According to the latest EIA STEO, global crude and product inventories are expected to keep rising through 2026. These projections reinforce a medium-term environment where market balances lean loose and price pressure skews to the downside unless demand growth meaningfully surprises.

Geopolitics & Differentials

Geopolitical risk premia have eased slightly in recent weeks, reducing the urgency for markets to price in a risk-driven rally. However, uncertainty around Russian oil flows—especially concerning sanctions and refinery disruptions—adds two-way volatility rather than creating a reliable bullish trend.

Natural Gas: Supported by Seasonal Demand

Natural gas remains a relative outperformer. U.S. Henry Hub sits around $4.5/MMBtu, supported by rising seasonal heating demand and strong LNG feedgas flows. Weather patterns and LNG exports remain the dominant drivers for gas in the weeks ahead.

Energy Market Weekly Review — Geopolitics vs Fundamentals

This past week highlighted a tug of war between renewed geopolitical tensions, shifting U.S. inventory patterns, and a softer macro backdrop. Geopolitical headlines provided underlying support, while near-term fundamentals and a stronger dollar kept the upside firmly capped.

Crude Prices — Gains Reversed as Russian Exports Resume

Oil began the week lower, with:

• Brent at $63.86 (–0.82%)
• WTI at $59.53 (–0.93%)

The immediate driver was the resumption of exports from Russia’s Novorossiysk terminal after a two-day halt triggered by Ukrainian drone strikes. With loadings restored, last week’s risk premium quickly unwound, highlighting just how sensitive crude remains to disruptions—and their swift reversals—in the Black Sea corridor.

Broader risk sentiment also weighed on crude. Concerns about stretched valuations in the tech sector and a wave of derisking around AI-heavy portfolios pulled investors away from commodities, limiting long positions in oil.

Geopolitics — Refinery Strikes, Sanctions, and Rising Headline Risk

Although prices slipped, geopolitical tensions actually increased:

• Ukraine reported strikes on Russia’s Ryazan and Novokuibyshevsk refineries.
• The U.S. announced sanctions prohibiting energy-related transactions with Lukoil and Rosneft after Nov. 21.
• Washington signalled additional legislation targeting countries doing business with Russia, with Iran mentioned as a potential extension.

While these measures do not remove barrels immediately, they complicate logistics, financing, insurance, and refined-product flows. Traders are watching closely, but markets have not yet repriced significantly higher; they want evidence of measurable supply disruption rather than headline risk alone.

U.S. Fundamentals — Crude Draws vs. Product Builds

Weekly U.S. inventory data painted a mixed picture:

API: Bearish

• Crude: +4.4M bbl

EIA: Bullish for Crude

• Crude: –3.426M bbl
• Cushing: –0.698M bbl
• Imports: sharply lower

EIA data showed meaningful crude draws and tightening at the Cushing hub—supportive for WTI.

EIA: Bearish for Products

• Gasoline: +2.327M bbl
• Distillates: +0.171M bbl
• Production for both categories fell

Despite reduced output, inventories are still being built. This hints at weaker wholesale demand, especially as winter distillate demand typically rises. Refinery runs increased only modestly, reflecting caution around margins and demand visibility.

Bottom Line on U.S. Data

• Bullish: Crude/Cushing draws, lower imports
• Bearish: Gasoline and distillate builds, soft demand signals

U.S. Shale — Stabilising, Not Surging

Rig counts showed a slight uptick:

• Oil rigs: 419
• Total rigs: 554

This suggests stable activity rather than aggressive expansion. U.S. shale continues prioritising capital discipline over rapid growth—enough to maintain supply, but not enough to flood the market.

Market Balance & Outlook — Fragile Equilibrium

This week’s market dynamics reveal a balanced but fragile crude outlook:

Bearish Forces

• Resumption of Russian exports
• U.S. product builds
• Softer macro sentiment and stronger USD

Bullish Forces

• Ukrainian refinery strikes
• Expanding U.S. sanctions
• Crude draws at Cushing
• Modest U.S. supply growth

Net result: The market remains fundamentally soft but geopolitically nervous. Prices are drifting lower on supply comfort but are prevented from breaking sharply due to rising geopolitical risk.

Weekly Outlook — Drivers & Scenarios

Oil begins the week under supply pressure, with OPEC+ acting more as a stabiliser than a bullish catalyst. Natural gas, by contrast, enjoys straightforward seasonal support.

Key Catalysts

• EIA Weekly Inventory Report
• OPEC+ Meeting (Nov. 30)
• Macro risk sentiment and U.S. dollar strength

Scenario Outlook

• Base Case: Crude remains heavy; gas supported
• Upside Risk: Surprise product draws, stronger OPEC+ messaging, new geopolitical disruptions
• Downside Risk: Another week of oversupply and a stronger USD

Technical View — WTI

WTI is still entrenched in a downtrend:

• Below EMA50 (~60.7) and EMA200 (~64.4)
• RSI near 41, confirming weak momentum
• OBV trending lower, indicating distribution

Key Levels

• Support: 57.0 → break opens 55.0, then 52.0
• Resistance: 60.7–61.3 → then 63.2–65.0 (channel top)

Bottom Line

Bears remain firmly in control below 60–61. Holding 57 may spark a temporary bounce, but a decisive break under this level confirms another leg lower.

Crypto Market — Current Conditions & Weekly BTC Outlook

Current Market Conditions

The crypto market remains in a risk-off, corrective phase. After the sharp rally in October, the market has shifted into broad deleveraging, with sentiment still cautious and volatility elevated. Total crypto market capitalisation sits near $2.95 trillion, while Bitcoin dominance at 56–57% confirms that BTC remains the primary driver of market direction.

Bitcoin is trading within the $80k–$90k range following several weeks of pullback, and intraday volatility remains high.

A key pressure point continues to be spot ETF flows. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen heavy net outflows this month—driven largely by significant redemptions from IBIT—undermining dip-buying confidence. Although there have been a few isolated days of small inflows, the flow trend is not yet stable enough to signal a true reversal.

Among major altcoins, ETH and other large-caps continue to underperform BTC, reflecting a defensive rotation toward liquidity during periods of stress. In the derivatives market, funding rates, basis, and open interest have all declined—indicating a cleaner, less leveraged market structure with reduced forced-selling risk, but also less positioning fuel for a sudden V-shaped rebound.

Weekly BTC Outlook — Key Drivers & Scenarios

Bitcoin and the broader crypto complex are still digesting a leverage-driven correction. The tone for the coming week will be shaped by two main forces:

1. U.S. macroeconomic data
2. Whether ETF outflows finally stabilise

Until clearer confirmation emerges, market conditions are likely to remain range-bound with headline-driven volatility, and BTC should continue to outperform altcoins on a relative basis.

With the U.S. heading into a shortened Thanksgiving trading week, liquidity will be thinner, raising the risk of exaggerated moves in both directions.

Most Important Market Inputs

U.S. PCE inflation, GDP revision, Durable Goods Orders, jobless claims, and Federal Reserve commentary

• These will influence risk appetite, interest-rate expectations, and U.S. real yields.

Spot ETF flow trends

• Continued outflows → rally caps stay firm
• Sustained inflows → the clearest bullish short-term catalyst

Leverage rebuild

• After a major liquidation wave earlier this month, positioning is cautious. A renewed pickup in leverage would strongly influence near-term direction and momentum.

Tactical BTC Levels (Near Term)

BTC remains bearishly biased while trading below the $95k–$100k zone. From here, the market faces two paths: continued grinding downside or a sharp mean-reversion bounce. However, any rebound is likely to face strong supply at former support levels unless BTC can reclaim and hold above $100k+.

Technical Structure

• Trend:
• BTC has shifted into a firm short-term downtrend. After peaking near $120k–$126k in early October, the price broke multiple support zones and has since printed lower highs and lower lows.
• Alligator / Moving Averages:
• The Alligator lines remain bearishly aligned and widening (green < red < blue), confirming trend acceleration. BTC is trading well below the major moving-average cluster, with no confirmed reversal signals yet.
• Momentum & Flow:
• RSI near 25 suggests deeply oversold conditions, increasing the chances of a tactical bounce.
• However, oversold readings alone do not confirm a trend reversal.
• OBV continues trending lower, signalling persistent selling pressure and weak dip-buying behavior.

Key Levels

• Resistance:
• $90k–$95k → first supply zone on any bounce
• $100k–$104k → major broken support
• $107k–$114k → next heavy resistance cluster
• Support:
• $85k → immediate floor
• A break below opens downside toward $80k–$75k (psychological/historical support)

Bottom Line

The market is deeply oversold, but not yet showing a confirmed reversal.

For a meaningful shift, BTC needs:

1. A stabilisation in spot ETF flows, and
2. A clear reclaim of the $95k–$100k region

Until then, any rallies are more likely to be corrective rather than the start of a new bullish trend.