Global Economic Review and Outlook! Week 31, 2025

Eyes on the Fed, NFP, and BoJ, Earnings on Fire!

Equity markets across major regions rallied as investor confidence in the resilience of global economic growth strengthened. In Europe, the European Central Bank held interest rates steady after inflation finally slowed to its 2% target. Policymakers noted that domestic price pressures have eased, and wage growth is moderating.

Meanwhile, China reported Q2 GDP growth of 5.2% year-on-year, slightly above expectations. However, economists caution that the headline figure masks underlying concerns, as export momentum appears to be fading and deflationary pressures are mounting. In response, Chinese authorities have ramped up support measures, including an interest rate cut in May and increased infrastructure spending, aiming to counter the impact of U.S. tariffs and a weakening property market.

Overall, the global economy demonstrated notable resilience last week, even as investors and policymakers remained alert to evolving geopolitical and trade-related risks.

U.S. Economic Snapshot: Equity Gains Contrast with Housing Struggles

In Week 30 of 2025, U.S. financial markets continued their upward trajectory, buoyed by cooling inflation and robust corporate earnings. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq reached fresh all-time highs, while the Dow rose 0.5%, reflecting investor optimism that the Federal Reserve may maintain its current rate stance or even consider future cuts. Revised inflation data supported this sentiment, showing continued softening in price pressures. The 10-year Treasury yield stabilized around 4.38%, slipping slightly ahead of the upcoming FOMC meeting as traders positioned for a potentially dovish Fed message.

Earnings season played a major role in lifting sentiment. Alphabet impressed with Q2 revenue of $96.4 billion, boosted by a 32% YoY increase in Google Cloud. Tesla, however, posted a disappointing 16% drop in vehicle sales and shrinking margins. Notably, the stock rally remained concentrated in a handful of mega-cap tech names, such as Microsoft and NVIDIA, which have driven the bulk of S&P 500 gains since 2021. This narrow leadership leaves markets vulnerable should these stocks stumble.

Yet, beneath the bullish headlines, several signs of economic strain emerged. Most notably, the housing market continued to weaken. Existing home sales fell 2.7% in June to a 10-month low, dragged down by elevated mortgage rates (6.74%) and a record median resale price of $435,000. Despite a 15.5% YoY increase in resale supply, affordability remains a major constraint. New home sales provided little relief, inching up only 0.6% after a sharp decline in May. Inventory of new single-family homes surged to 511,000, the highest since 2007, with the South accounting for a record 44% of this buildup.

Business investment also showed signs of cooling. Durable goods orders dropped 9.3% in June, largely due to aircraft volatility. More importantly, core capital goods orders and shipments fell 0.7% and 0.9%, respectively, signaling weaker equipment investment in Q2. These trends, alongside tariff uncertainties, point to fragile corporate confidence.

Labor market data offered a mixed picture. Initial jobless claims dropped to a three-month low (217,000), but continuing claims stayed high, hinting at slower rehiring. The July payrolls report, due next week, will be closely watched for confirmation of labor market momentum, with expectations for a moderation to around 110,000 new jobs.

The political environment added pressure, as President Trump met with Fed Chair Powell, urging lower rates. While Powell’s position appeared secure, the meeting spotlighted the tension between monetary policy and political influence. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar had a volatile week, slipping on easing expectations but bouncing back on stronger data. Gold and oil prices declined, reflecting a shift in sentiment toward riskier assets and easing safe-haven demand.

In sum, Week 30 highlighted a U.S. economy balancing optimism and fragility. While equities rallied and inflation cooled, housing weakness, slowing investment, and lingering labor market concerns suggest a complex outlook. With key events ahead—namely the Fed meeting and Q2 GDP—markets may soon get a clearer signal on whether the economy is heading for a soft landing or a bumpier path.

Global Economic Review – Week 30, 2025 (Excluding U.S.)

In Week 30 of 2025, global economic developments outside the United States reflected a theme of cautious optimism. Central banks in major economies largely paused interest rate changes or signaled increased policy flexibility as inflation pressures eased. However, regional divergences were evident, with Europe stabilizing, the UK slowing, Asia presenting mixed signals, and emerging markets showing resilience with pockets of volatility.

Europe: A Pause in Tightening, but Recovery Still Fragile

The European Central Bank (ECB) left interest rates unchanged during its policy meeting, a notable shift after a year of aggressive tightening. ECB President Christine Lagarde emphasized that eurozone inflation has declined to the 2% medium-term target, reducing the urgency for additional hikes. The Governing Council cited easing wage growth and diminished price pressures as supportive of a pause.

Recent data showed the eurozone economy’s resilience despite persistent trade tensions and global growth uncertainty. Flash PMIs for July pointed to the fastest output expansion in nearly a year, indicating potential recovery momentum. However, second-quarter GDP is expected to show little to no growth, and the manufacturing sector remains subdued. ECB officials hinted that while rate cuts are not imminent, the door to more easing could open if downside risks escalate.

United Kingdom: Stagnation Persists Amid Inflation Headwinds

The UK economy presented a more troubling picture. July PMIs disappointed, with the composite index slipping to 51.0 from 52.0, and services PMI falling to 51.2, both signaling stagnant activity. Although manufacturing showed modest recovery (rising to 48.2), it remained in contraction.

June inflation data showed CPI rising 3.6% YoY, up slightly from May, keeping price growth well above the Bank of England’s (BoE) 2% target. Soft retail sales and weakening consumer spending pressured the British pound, while early signs of labor market softness further clouded the outlook. The BoE is expected to proceed cautiously, with a likely 25 basis point rate cut in August to 4.00%. However, with inflation still high and momentum weak, future easing will depend heavily on data.

Asia: Mixed Momentum in China and Policy Caution in Japan

China’s economy showed uneven performance in Q2. While headline GDP growth reached 5.2% YoY—slightly above expectations—the underlying dynamics revealed concerns. Industrial production rose 6.8% in June, but retail sales growth slowed to 4.8%, reflecting weak consumer confidence. A deepening property market downturn and deflationary risks added to the challenges, with producer prices falling at their fastest pace in nearly two years and CPI hovering near zero.

In response, Chinese authorities increased fiscal and monetary support. The People’s Bank of China cut key rates in May and injected liquidity into the system. Infrastructure projects and consumption subsidies are being rolled out, and markets are looking to the upcoming Politburo meeting for additional stimulus measures to ensure China meets its 5% growth target for the year. However, the risk of renewed U.S.–China trade tensions—particularly after the August tariff review deadline—remains a key threat.

Meanwhile, Japan is experiencing a rare phase of persistent inflation and rising wages. Core CPI stood at 3.3% in June, marking the fourth straight year inflation has exceeded the BoJ’s 2% target. Wages also grew 5.4% following spring labor negotiations, suggesting Japan is emerging from its long-standing deflationary environment.

Despite this, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) kept its benchmark rate at 0.5% and maintained its yield curve control (YCC) framework. BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda remains cautious, citing fragile global trade and external demand risks. Though speculation is growing that the BoJ could shift toward normalization, the central bank prefers to wait for further clarity. Japanese bond yields have been stabilized through BOJ purchases, and the yen traded within a volatile range in Week 30, reflecting mixed expectations for future tightening.

Emerging Markets: Stabilizing with Cautious Optimism

In emerging markets, the global trend of disinflation is allowing some central banks to consider rate cuts to support growth. India and Brazil, for instance, signaled readiness to ease monetary policy as inflation continues to moderate and growth slows.

A notable exception is Turkey, where the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) cut its policy rate by 300 basis points to 43%, more than markets anticipated. This move comes after annual inflation fell to 35.05% in June from over 40% earlier in the year. The CBRT’s policy statement struck a dovish tone, citing softening domestic demand and improved inflation expectations as justification for easing.

Despite the rate cut, the Turkish lira remained under pressure, as investor skepticism persists regarding the government’s economic strategy. Nonetheless, the move signals a shift toward monetary normalization, with further rate reductions possible if inflation remains on a downward trajectory and geopolitical risks remain contained.

Outlook: A World Balancing Recovery and Risk

Overall, Week 30 highlighted a global economy gradually regaining its footing. The ECB’s pause, China’s stimulus measures, and BoJ’s cautious optimism suggest central banks are adjusting to a post-inflation world where policy flexibility is key. While headline inflation is cooling, regional economic disparities persist. Europe is stabilizing, the UK remains fragile, China faces structural headwinds, and Japan is cautiously optimistic.

The coming weeks will be crucial, with central bank meetings, key economic indicators (GDP, inflation, labor data), and geopolitical developments—including trade tensions and global monetary alignment—shaping the next phase of global recovery. As disinflation trends continue, many economies are hoping to thread the needle between maintaining growth and ensuring long-term price stability.

In sum, while global risks persist, the tone in Week 30 suggests cautious hope: inflation is falling, policy tightening is pausing, and resilience is growing—albeit unevenly—across the world economy.

U.S. Economic Outlook – Week 31, 2025 (July 28–August 1)

As the final days of July approach, Week 31 will place the U.S. economy in sharp focus. Several major developments converge during the week, most notably the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting (July 29–30), the Q2 GDP release, and the July jobs report. Together, these events will shape expectations around monetary policy, economic resilience, and market behavior heading into the second half of 2025.

Federal Reserve Policy Meeting: Patience with an Easing Bias

The Fed is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged, marking a continuation of its cautious "wait-and-see" posture after a series of rate cuts earlier in the year. With inflation continuing to cool and economic growth showing signs of stabilization, policymakers are unlikely to pre-commit to additional rate changes. Instead, they are expected to emphasize data dependency, leaving the door open for adjustments based on incoming macroeconomic indicators.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s post-meeting press conference will be pivotal. Investors will parse his comments for any hints about the timing of future rate cuts, particularly with disinflation taking hold and growth moderate. While the Fed maintains a dovish tilt, officials remain reluctant to ease further without clearer evidence that the economy has absorbed the impact of earlier tightening and that trade disruptions, especially around tariffs, do not reignite price pressures.

Q2 GDP Report: Moderate Growth Masking Weak Momentum

Wednesday’s advance Q2 GDP reading will help gauge the underlying strength of the U.S. economy. Consensus estimates call for a 1.8% annualized growth rate, rebounding from Q1’s 0.5% decline. However, the positive headline figure is expected to overstate domestic strength, with much of the rebound driven by a reversal in net exports, which likely added 4 percentage points to growth.

Beneath the surface, domestic demand remains sluggish:

• Consumer spending is expected to show just 1.3% growth, up from 0.5% in Q1, but still soft given higher prices and slowing wage gains.
• Business and residential investment likely declined again.
• Final private sales better measure of underlying demand—suggesting continued fragility.

Inflation and weak income growth are squeezing real purchasing power, and the outlook for Q3 remains cautious, particularly with labor market indicators softening.

Labor Market: Cooling, but Still Resilient

Friday’s July employment report will provide insight into labor market conditions. Economists expect non-farm payrolls to increase by about 110,000, down from June’s 147,000. This would reflect a gradual labor market loosening, consistent with the Fed’s view that excess heat has come out of the jobs market.

Key labor dynamics:

• The unemployment rate is projected to tick up slightly to 4.2%.
• Labor force participation may rebound modestly after recent declines.
• Wage growth is expected to remain muted, with average hourly earnings up 0.2% MoM (3.7% YoY).
• The Q2 Employment Cost Index (ECI) is forecast to rise 0.8% QoQ and 3.5% YoY, pointing to reduced cost pressures.

Importantly, while initial jobless claims have fallen, continuing claims remain elevated, suggesting job seekers are taking longer to find new roles. Sectors like construction and retail continue to report hiring challenges, and government employment is flat or declining due to fiscal constraints and hiring freezes.

Other Data in Focus: PCE, ISM, PMIs

Markets will also digest the June PCE inflation data, the Fed’s preferred gauge, expected to reflect the ongoing disinflation trend. Any upside surprise could challenge the easing narrative.

Additionally, the ISM and regional PMIs will shed light on U.S. manufacturing performance. While activity stabilized in July, momentum remains weak. Less volatility in tariffs has helped smooth supply chains, and delivery times have normalized. But new orders remain sluggish, and manufacturers continue facing elevated input costs and pricing uncertainty. The overall picture is one of normalization rather than a rebound.

Wall Street Outlook: Earnings Peak Meets Policy Pivot

Wall Street enters Week 31 with strong momentum but fragile underpinnings. The S&P 500 is nearly 20% YTD, driven primarily by mega-cap tech stocks such as Apple, Microsoft, and Nvidia. However, this narrow leadership leaves markets vulnerable.

Several dynamics are in play:

• Earnings season is at its peak, with tech giants reporting. Positive surprises could extend the rally, while disappointments might prompt sharp corrections.
• Valuations are stretched: The forward P/E ratio is near cycle highs.
• If the Fed reaffirms its dovish stance and stresses risks (e.g., trade uncertainty), stock growth could benefit, particularly in the tech sector.
• But if Powell signals that rate cuts are farther off, or hints at discomfort with asset prices, risk assets could retreat.

Technically, the market uptrend remains intact. The S&P 500 is above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level (~42,000), supported by positive RSI and On-Balance Volume (OBV). A fall below the 50% retracement (~41,000) would raise concerns, but until then, the bulls are still in control.

Dollar Outlook: Soft Bias Amid Fed Uncertainty

The U.S. dollar (USD) begins the week on a slightly weaker note, having logged its largest weekly drop in a month as traders positioned for a dovish Fed. However, the dollar's performance will hinge on rate expectations, data surprises, and global sentiment.

Key influences:

• If the Fed stresses patience and acknowledges disinflation, it could weigh on the dollar further.
• Political pressure—President Trump’s calls for rate cuts—adds uncertainty around the Fed’s independence, which may also limit dollar upside.
• Conversely, strong GDP or jobs data could boost the dollar if markets shift expectations back toward fewer rate cuts.

Geopolitical risk and trade will also shape the greenback. Optimism over U.S.–EU and U.S.–Japan trade talks has reduced safe-haven flows into the dollar. But any flare-up, especially with China, could trigger renewed demand for dollar assets.

From a technical perspective, DXY (Dollar Index) shows a mixed outlook:

• Support is firm at 96, the current pivot level.
• Resistance sits near 99—a break above this level would signal renewed bullish momentum.
• RSI suggests waning bearish momentum, while a flat OBV, despite rising prices, implies a potential correction ahead if bulls fail to break higher.

Summary Outlook

Week 31 places the U.S. economy at a crossroads. The Federal Reserve is likely to maintain its cautious tone, favoring policy flexibility amid softening inflation and modest growth. The combination of Q2 GDP, July jobs, PCE inflation, and ISM data will either reinforce the "soft landing" narrative or reveal deeper weaknesses.

Markets are priced for patience and optimism, but any surprises—hawkish or dovish—could shift trajectories sharply. Wall Street remains vulnerable to earnings disappointments, while the dollar may drift lower unless economic data beats expectations or risk sentiment sours.

With macro risks easing but growth still tepid, Week 31 will test the durability of investor optimism, the strength of the labor market, and the Fed’s confidence in the current policy path. Flexibility, not certainty, remains the guiding principle for the U.S. economic outlook.

Japan Economic Outlook – Week 31, 2025

Japan heads into Week 31 under intense market scrutiny as the Bank of Japan (BoJ) prepares for a critical policy meeting on July 30–31. For the first time in decades, the central bank is confronting a sustained period of above-target inflation and rising wages, sparking speculation over whether Japan might finally be ready to exit its ultra-easy monetary policy regime.

Japan’s core inflation has remained above the BoJ’s 2% target for four consecutive years. In June, the Core CPI came in at 3.3%, slightly down from earlier months but still elevated. Adding to this shift, spring wage negotiations produced an average wage increase of 5.4%, the highest in over 30 years. These developments suggest that Japan may be emerging from its deflationary era—a major turning point for an economy long plagued by weak price and wage growth.

Despite this progress, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda remains cautious. At its June meeting, the BoJ kept its short-term interest rate at –0.1% and capped 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yields around 0.5%, citing concerns about external risks such as global trade tensions and slowing demand abroad. The BoJ also slowed the pace of bond reduction and maintained its willingness to intervene in the bond market if yields rise too quickly.

Markets largely expect no rate change in the July meeting. The baseline is that the BoJ will stick to its current stance—negative rates, yield curve control (YCC), and targeted asset purchases as needed. However, there is growing speculation about subtle tweaks to the policy framework. One possibility is a wider YCC band, which would allow long-term yields to rise more naturally. Another is an upward revision of inflation forecasts, potentially signaling that 2–3% core inflation may persist into 2026—a message that would hint at a slow normalization path.

All eyes will be on Governor Ueda’s post-meeting comments, particularly regarding what conditions would justify policy tightening. He has previously said that sustained inflation and steady economic conditions would be prerequisites for rate hikes, but has also warned that premature tightening could destabilize a recovery that still lags pre-pandemic levels.

Adding complexity, Japan will release key data this week, including retail sales and industrial production for June. While consumer spending has improved modestly, it remains below pre-COVID levels. Industrial activity has been volatile due to shifting global tech demand. Any major surprises in these numbers could sway the BoJ’s tone.

Japanese Yen (JPY)

Meanwhile, the Japanese yen (JPY) continues to trade weakly, with USD/JPY hovering between 145–150. A surprise policy shift could strengthen the yen, while a reaffirmation of dovish policy could lead to further depreciation. Bond markets are also sensitive—10-year JGB yields are nearing the top of the BoJ’s current band. Any signal of increased flexibility on yields could ripple globally, affecting carry trades and yield spreads.

Technically, USD/JPY is in a bullish trend, with a key pivot at 146.50. Holding above this could push the pair toward 149, while a break below may trigger a slide toward 142 in the medium term.

In summary, the BoJ faces a delicate balancing act in Week 31: acknowledging inflation progress without destabilizing markets or derailing recovery. Whether this week brings a historic shift—or just another signal of caution—will shape Japan’s monetary trajectory through the rest of 2025.

Gold Market Review & Weekly Outlook – Week 31, 2025

Gold prices eased slightly in Week 30, reaching just below record highs after a strong rally through most of 2025. Spot gold (August futures) slipped 0.97% on Friday to around $3,340/oz, marking its lowest level in two weeks, though the metal is still up nearly 40% year-to-date. The pullback reflected a mix of profit-taking, improved risk sentiment, and a firmer U.S. dollar, all of which reduced short-term safe-haven demand.

The late-July weakness in gold was partly driven by easing geopolitical fears. Hopes for a U.S.–EU trade agreement, strong corporate earnings (especially in tech), and equity market rallies encouraged investors to rotate away from defensive assets like gold. Meanwhile, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield hovered around 4.4%, and the dollar rebounded ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting, further pressuring gold prices. Since gold yields no interest, it tends to underperform when real rates and the dollar rise.

Still, the downside in gold was limited. The metal briefly hit a new all-time high near $3,400 earlier in the week, and central banks and long-term investors continued to buy on dips. Ongoing geopolitical risks, such as Russia–Ukraine tensions and U.S.–China trade uncertainties, are helping to support gold even amid short-term headwinds.

Looking to Week 31, the gold market’s trajectory will be heavily influenced by the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting (July 30) and key U.S. data, including Q2 GDP and the July jobs report. A dovish Fed tone, suggesting patience or future rate cuts, could weaken the dollar and boost gold. On the other hand, stronger-than-expected data and hawkish Fed signals could pressure prices further.

Technical levels suggest near-term support around $3,300 and resistance near $3,370. A break above resistance may reignite bullish momentum, while a drop below support could trigger additional selling. Many analysts now view $3,000 as a new psychological floor, replacing the old $2,000 benchmark, given the metal’s strong performance in H1.

Longer-term forecasts remain bullish, with J.P. Morgan projecting an average of $3,675 in Q4 and potential for $4,000 in 2026, supported by peaking interest rates and geopolitical concerns. However, in the near term, gold may continue consolidating in a narrow range unless shaken by policy or market surprises.

In summary, gold’s outlook remains cautiously optimistic. The recent pullback is seen as a pause, not a reversal, and dips are likely to attract buyers amid persistent macro and geopolitical uncertainties.

WTI Crude Oil Market Review & Weekly Outlook – Week 31, 2025

Crude oil prices declined in Week 30, as growing concerns over global demand and signs of ample supply weighed on market sentiment. WTI (West Texas Intermediate) closed around $65.16 per barrel on Friday, falling about 3% for the week and hitting a three-week low. Brent crude followed a similar path, sliding to approximately $68.40, its lowest since early July.

The downward move was driven by economic concerns in the U.S. and China, the world’s largest oil consumers. In the U.S., soft capital goods orders pointed to slowing business investment, while China’s shrinking fiscal revenue raised red flags about its growth outlook. These developments clouded the demand forecast for oil.

Supply-side pressures also added to the bearish tone. The U.S. is reportedly preparing to ease sanctions on Venezuela, potentially bringing an additional 200,000 barrels per day to market. At the same time, Russia’s oil exports have remained high, and OPEC+ output is rising as scheduled. These developments combined to curb bullish momentum despite the summer driving season.

On Monday, OPEC+’s Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) will meet to review market conditions. The group is expected to maintain its August supply plan, which includes an additional 548,000 bpd from eight members. This move is aligned with the bloc’s strategy to unwind pandemic-era cuts by September, encouraged by the U.S. to help keep gasoline prices in check. However, not all members are hitting production targets, and some supply disruptions (e.g., in Libya or Nigeria) offer partial offsets.

Despite last week’s losses, oil prices held above early 2025 lows. Optimism around improving U.S.–EU trade relations and the Federal Reserve’s pause on rate hikes has helped ease recession fears. Moreover, U.S. oil production remains high, but active rig counts have been falling for weeks, hinting at a potential slowdown in output.

Looking ahead to Week 31, oil traders face a complex mix of signals. On the demand side, key U.S. and Chinese economic data could influence sentiment. Strong GDP growth or manufacturing PMIs might bolster oil, while weak printers could extend losses. The Fed meeting and U.S. jobs report will also shape the macro backdrop. A dovish Fed could weaken the dollar and support oil prices.

On the supply side, the OPEC+ JMMC is expected to hold the course. However, any signals about future restraint—especially from Saudi Arabia—could lend support. In contrast, if officials downplay price risks and confirm continued ramp-ups, it could pressure oil further. U.S. EIA inventory data will also be closely watched after a surprise build last week.

Geopolitically, talks between Iran and Europe over the nuclear deal could affect future supply, although not immediately. Meanwhile, a weekend meeting between EU officials and President Trump on trade could influence broader economic sentiment and, indirectly, the oil market.

Technically, WTI is supported near $64, with resistance at $68. The market remains range-bound, and with hurricane season approaching, traders are cautious. Barring surprises, oil is likely to trade sideways in the $64–$68 zone, reflecting a tentative equilibrium between modest demand and controlled supply growth.

Crypto Market Review & Bitcoin Weekly Outlook – Week 31, 2025

The cryptocurrency market faced sharp volatility in Week 30, led by a notable pullback in Bitcoin (BTC). After climbing to the mid-$120,000s earlier in July, Bitcoin reversed course, plunging below $116,000, and at one point touching $113,000, its lowest in weeks. The decline accelerated around July 23, triggering a technical breakdown and forcing the liquidation of over $155 million in leveraged long positions. The move reflected a cascade of algorithmic selling and over-leveraged conditions, as BTC failed to break the key $119K–$120K resistance.

The broader crypto market mirrored Bitcoin’s drop, with altcoins suffering deeper losses. Ethereum (ETH) fell ~6% to the mid-$3,000s, while XRP and DOGE experienced declines exceeding 17%–18% before bouncing slightly. This mass sell-off signaled broad deleveraging, with institutional and retail investors like cutting exposure. Ethereum’s validator exit queue also lengthened, with over 640,000 ETH pending withdrawal, indicating a risk-off tone in the market.

Interestingly, despite the shakeout, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index remained in “Greed” (~66), implying that long-term sentiment has not turned bearish. Many investors view the drop as a healthy correction after a parabolic rally, rather than the start of a deep downturn.

Outlook for Week 31

Bitcoin’s technical positioning is now key. The $114,700 area (20-DMA) acts as immediate support; if it breaks, the next target could be $109,000, with some analysts warning of a potential 30–50% deeper correction if bulls fail to reclaim momentum. To confirm a resumed uptrend, Bitcoin must sustainably reclaim $120,000 and aim for a retest of its all-time highs. Currently, BTC is consolidating between $113K and $120K, awaiting a catalyst for its next move.

Several macro and crypto-specific events will shape sentiment in Week 31:

• The Federal Reserve meeting and broader risk appetite in equity markets are major drivers. A dovish Fed could boost crypto, while hawkish signals or equity weakness may weigh on Bitcoin.
• Regulatory developments around Bitcoin and crypto ETFs remain pivotal. Rumors of SEC decisions on Bitcoin or XRP ETFs added both hope and uncertainty last week. Concrete regulatory outcomes could spur volatility.
• Ongoing legal cases (e.g., Ripple vs. SEC) continue to influence the altcoin market.

Conclusion

Bitcoin’s correction has paused the rally but has not ended yet. Week 31 will test whether BTC can hold support and resume its bullish trend or face deeper retracement. With macro and regulatory news on deck, volatility remains high, but the long-term outlook stays positive unless key supports break decisively.