Global Weekly Economic Review — Week Ending November 1, 2025

United States

• Activity & sentiment: Chicago PMI rose to 43.8 (40.6 prior)—still sub-50 but improving. CB Consumer Confidence eased to 94.6 (95.6 prior) yet beat expectations.
• Housing/credit: Pending Home Sales stalled in September; mortgage rate dipped to 6.30%; applications and refi indices improved. FHFA/S&P house prices mixed (monthly firming, YoY modest).
• Liquidity/markets: Fed balance sheet inched down to $6.587T; reserves fell to $2.828T. Bill auctions cleared slightly lower yields (4- & 8-week).
• Energy: EIA showed crude −6.86M bbl, gasoline and distillates down sharply; rig count fell (oil 414, total 546).

Takeaway: U.S. activity is stabilizing, inflation pressures continue to ease, and policy can stay on hold.

Eurozone & Europe

• Growth: Eurozone Q3 GDP +0.2% q/q, +1.3% y/y. Germany q/q 0.0%; retail +0.2% m/m; Ifo 88.4.
• Prices: Eurozone CPI 2.1% y/y, core 2.4%; MoM +0.2% / +0.3% (core). Germany CPI 2.3% y/y, HICP 2.3%. France CPI cooled to 1.0% y/y; Italy CPI 1.2% y/y; Spain headline ~3.1% y/y.
• Money/credit: M3 +2.8% y/y; private-sector loans +2.6% y/y.
• Confidence: EC Economic Sentiment 96.8; industrial sentiment up to −8.2; services 4.0; consumer −14.2.
• ECB: Policy rates unchanged (refi 2.15%, depo 2.00%, MLF 2.40%).
• Switzerland: Retail +1.5% y/y; official reserves CHF 840.6B.
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Takeaway: Disinflation firmly in place; growth low but stable; ECB patient hold.

United Kingdom

• Housing & credit: Nationwide HPI +0.3% m/m, +2.4% y/y. Mortgage approvals 65.9k; net lending to individuals £7.0B.
• Prices/retail: BRC shop prices +1.0% y/y (two-year low). CBI Distributive Trades −27 (less weak).

Takeaway: Housing stabilizes, inflation drifts lower, growth modest—BoE can stay on hold.

Japan

• Production: Industrial production +2.2% m/m (−1.5% prior); forecasts show +1.9% Oct, −0.9% Nov.
• Inflation: Tokyo core CPI 2.8% y/y; ex-food & energy +0.9% m/m, +1.6% y/y. BoJ core 2.1% y/y.
• Labor: Unemployment 2.6%; jobs/applicants 1.20. Household confidence 35.8.
• Construction: Orders +34.7% y/y; housing starts −7.3% y/y.
• Markets: Foreign equity inflows ¥1.34T; 2-yr JGB auction 0.932%.

Takeaway: Above-target inflation with gradual manufacturing rebound; BoJ patient normalization.

China

• PMIs: Manufacturing 49.0 (contraction), non-manufacturing 50.1, composite 50.0.
• Profits: Industrial profits +3.2% YTD (from +0.9%).

Takeaway: Recovery softens; expectations rise for targeted easing (liquidity, fiscal support).

Emerging Markets Highlights

Asia (ex-China/Japan)

• South Korea: GDP +1.2% q/q, +1.7% y/y; IP +11.6% y/y; services +1.8% m/m; retail −0.1% m/m.
• India: Bank loans +11.5% y/y; deposits +9.5%; M3 +9.2%; FX reserves $695.4B.
• Turkey: Capacity use 74.2%, manufacturing confidence 100.8, unemployment 8.6%. Tourism revenues $24.3B (Q3); trade deficit −$6.9B (Sep).

Latin America

• Brazil: Budget deficit −BRL 102.2B (Sep); gross debt 78.1% of GDP; unemployment 5.6%; IGP-M −0.36% m/m; consumer confidence firmer.
• Mexico: GDP −0.3% q/q, −0.2% y/y (Q3); trade deficit −$2.4B; fiscal balance −MXN 198B.

EMEA

• South Africa: Trade +ZAR 21.76B; PPI 2.3% y/y (softer).
• Russia: Retail +1.8% y/y; real wages +3.8% y/y; unemployment 2.2%; monthly GDP +0.9% y/y; CBR reserves $731.2B.

Other Economies

Israel:

• Exports $4.70B, imports $7.86B (trade −$3.17B); unemployment 3.0%.

Canada

• GDP: −0.3% m/m (Aug); flash +0.1% (Sep). Budget deficit −CAD 3.28B (Aug); avg weekly earnings +3.01% y/y.

Energy & Commodities Pulse

• U.S. inventories: Crude −6.86M bbl; gasoline −5.94M; distillates −3.36M; refinery runs lower; utilization −2.0 pp.
• Supply signals: U.S. oil rigs down to 414—pointing to slower supply growth into winter.

Markets & Policy Implications

• Rates/FX: Disinflation in Europe and stable U.S. data anchor rate expectations; JPY supported by Tokyo CPI; CNY steady amid policy support. EM FX divergent: KRW/INR steadier; BRL/MXN pressured by fiscal/ growth.
• Bonds: Eurozone duration bid on softer inflation; U.S. front-end steady; JGBs well-supported.
• Equities: Tech-led U.S. earnings underpin risk appetite; Europe aided by softer CPI; EM equities mixed—Asia > LatAm.

Quick Dashboard (this week)

• Growth: EZ +0.2% q/q, KR +1.2% q/q, MX −0.3% q/q
• Inflation: EZ 2.1% y/y, DE 2.3%, FR 1.0%, IT 1.2%, Tokyo 2.8%
• PMIs: CN Mfg 49.0, Composite 50.0
• Labor: JP 2.6%, BR 5.6%, IL 3.0%
• External: ZA trade +21.8bn ZAR, TR trade −$6.9bn
• Energy: U.S. crude −6.86M, oil rigs 414

Watch the Analytical Video - Week Ahead!