Outlooks

Daily Market Update, March 25, 2026 | Global Markets Stabilize as Oil Pulls Back and UK Inflation Holds

Global markets opened with a cautious relief tone after reports that Washington is pursuing a month-long ceasefire framework in the war with Iran. S&P 500 futures rose about 0.7%, European futures gained around 1.2%, Japan’s stock market jumped 3%, and Australia and South Korea each advanced roughly 2%. At the same time, Brent crude fell about 5% to near $99 a barrel, while U.S. Treasury yields moved lower. The broader tone is better, but it is still not a fully confident risk-on move because traders remain highly sensitive to geopolitical headlines.

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author: Ahura Chalaki

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published:Mar 25, 2026 3:59

category:daily

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Data Released Today

The main scheduled macro release today was the UK inflation report. The Office for National Statistics said UK CPI rose 3.0% year over year in February, unchanged from January, while CPIH held at 3.2%. Core CPI increased to 3.2% from 3.1%, and CPIH services inflation eased to 4.2% from 4.3%. That means today’s inflation data was steady rather than hotter, but it still does not remove the pressure on the Bank of England, especially with energy risks still elevated.

What Markets Are Watching Today

Today’s market focus remains split between geopolitics and the energy complex. Traders are watching for any new headlines on ceasefire negotiations, shipping conditions in the Persian Gulf, and the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s weekly petroleum status report. Germany’s March Ifo business climate release is also part of today’s European macro calendar.

Important Calendar Change

One important adjustment for U.S. macro watchers: the February 2026 advance durable goods report, which had originally been scheduled for March 25, was officially postponed to April 7. That removes one potentially important U.S. manufacturing catalyst from today’s session.

Market Takeaway

The market is trading a relief bounce, supported by lower oil and temporary de-escalation hopes, but conviction remains shallow. Oil is still far above pre-conflict levels, central-bank expectations remain sensitive to energy inflation, and sentiment can still reverse quickly on any geopolitical setback. For now, this remains a headline-driven market more than a clean macro trend market.

Sources: Reuters, Office for National Statistics, U.S. Census Bureau, ifo Institute.