Week 5, 2026: Global Economic Outlook (2–7 Feb 2026)

This is a policy + labor-market week: three major central banks in focus—Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), European Central Bank (ECB), and Bank of England (BoE)—plus the U.S. jobs report as the global cross-asset anchor. The main question is whether incoming data and guidance validate easing expectations (rates lower, risk higher) or re-price persistence risk (rates higher-for-longer, risk tighter).

author: Ahura Chalaki

159

published:Feb 1, 2026 11:13

category:weekly

Analytical Video

Top catalysts to watch

1) Central banks: RBA → ECB → BoE (policy-divergence risk)

RBA (2–3 Feb): Markets will focus on the statement and press conference—especially how the Board frames the balance between inflation progress and demand softness.
ECB (4–5 Feb, Frankfurt): Guidance is key—how officials frame the inflation path and the conditions for the next move.
BoE (Thu, 5 Feb): Vote split + tone (hold vs “moving closer to cuts”) are the likely GBP drivers.

2) Euro area inflation: timing + direction

Eurostat flash CPI (January) is scheduled for Wed, 4 Feb—a critical input into ECB pricing and EUR rates expectations.

3) United States: PMIs early, payrolls late

ISM Manufacturing hits Mon, 2 Feb, and ISM Services hits Wed, 4 Feb (per ISM’s release calendar conventions).
Employment Situation (January) from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics is Fri, 6 Feb (08:30 ET)—the week’s highest-volatility macro event.

4) China: demand reality-check

China’s official manufacturing PMI slipped back into contraction in January, reinforcing a “policy support vs soft domestic demand” narrative that can spill into EM FX, metals, and global cyclicals.

5) Canada & Japan: labor and consumption pulses

Canada Labour Force Survey (January) is scheduled for Fri, 6 Feb, which can amplify CAD moves alongside U.S. payrolls.
Japan household spending (December) is slated for Thu, 5 Feb, a clean read on real-demand momentum.

Calendar highlights (2–7 Feb)

Mon 2 Feb: ISM Manufacturing (US); RBA meeting begins (2–3 Feb).
Tue 3 Feb: RBA decision communications (statement + presser).
Wed 4 Feb: Euro area flash CPI (Jan); ISM Services (US); ECB meeting day 1 (4–5 Feb).
Thu 5 Feb: BoE decision; Japan household spending (Dec); ECB decision day/press conference.
Fri 6 Feb: U.S. payrolls (Jan); Canada LFS (Jan).
Sat 7 Feb: Positioning/digestion into next week unless geopolitics forces repricing.

Cross-asset playbook — what to watch

Rates (USTs / Gilts / Bunds)

Expect the front end to be dominated by BoE/ECB guidance mid-week, then potentially re-anchored by U.S. payrolls on Friday.

USD: Most sensitive to payrolls-driven repricing of the path for U.S. rates.
EUR: Inflation print (Wed) + ECB tone (Thu) are the main macro drivers.
GBP: BoE vote split and guidance can move GBP even on an expected hold.
AUD: RBA communication is the center of gravity; U.S. data is the secondary driver via global risk conditions.

Equities/credit

The “good” outcome for risk is cooling-but-stable growth (PMIs not rolling over) plus no wage re-acceleration in payrolls. The “bad” outcome is a hot labor print or hawkish guidance that forces rates higher and tightens financial conditions.

Commodities

Industrial commodities will likely trade the growth impulse (PMIs) and China demand narrative; energy will remain sensitive to risk-premium headlines but should still take direction from macro risk appetite this week.