Weekly Economic & Financial Commentary, July 21-26

In Asia, China’s economy grew 5.2% year‑on‑year in Q2, driven by robust industrial output, and the Caixin manufacturing PMI returned to expansion at 50.4. Japan’s core CPI eased but remained above 2%, supporting expectations of further BOJ rate hikes, even as business confidence improved slightly in the quarterly tankan survey. In Oceania, Australia’s unemployment rate jumped to 4.3% in June, fueling speculation of an RBA rate cut, though the NAB business activity index rebounded in June. Emerging markets were mixed: India’s retail inflation fell to a six‑year low of 2.10%, Nigeria’s inflation eased to 22.22%, and Brazil’s IBC‑Br activity index contracted 0.7% in May.

Global Economic Review: What You Missed

United States:

Last week’s data reinforced the uneven but generally resilient state of the U.S. economy. Inflation edged higher, reflecting early pass‑through of tariff costs, while labour market and production figures showed pockets of strength. Housing and consumer spending rebounded, but elevated borrowing costs and trade‑policy uncertainty cloud the outlook for growth in the months ahead.

Inflation and Monetary Policy

In June, headline consumer prices rose 0.3%, the largest monthly increase since January, which lifted the 12-month CPI rate to 2.7%. This uptick, driven in part by higher goods costs, has given the Federal Reserve little room to pivot toward rate cuts. Core inflation trends show goods prices climbing at an above‑trend pace—core goods inflation ran at 0.2%, well above the six‑month average of 0.07%. Excluding the recent surge in vehicle buying, non‑vehicle goods saw their steepest monthly price gain since early 2022, underscoring the early impact of tariffs. In contrast, core services inflation eased somewhat, as discretionary categories such as travel and lodging saw price declines amid cautious consumer demand. Because much of the tariff increase occurred in April and May, preemptive stockpiling and lagged pass‑through suggest headline inflation could pick up further in the coming reports.

Labour Market

Weekly unemployment claims fell by 7,000 to 221,000 for the July 12 period, undershooting forecasts and signaling continued labour‐market tightness. Although the headline jobs data for June are pending, these lower claims suggest firms are still hesitant to cut back on hiring despite broader economic uncertainties. Steady employment underpins consumer spending, but rising borrowing costs and slowing credit growth may temper hiring in interest‑sensitive sectors later in the year.

Industrial Production

Industrial output rose more than expected in June, building on upward revisions to May. Factory production ticked up 0.1%, while utilities and mining activity drove much of the headline gain. Robust capacity utilization in factories indicates some resilience, but persistent trade‑policy ambiguity is likely to weigh on new capital investment decisions, posing downside risks to manufacturing growth over the summer and beyond.

Residential Construction

After a sluggish start to 2025, housing starts rebounded 4.6% in June to a 1.32 million annualized pace, led by a revival in multifamily projects. Building permits inched up 0.2%, pointing to further construction activity ahead. However, single‑family starts remain near the weakest level since July 2023, as mortgage rates hovering around 7% continue to throttle affordability and deter new homebuilding. This bifurcation suggests developers are shifting toward rental‑oriented projects, while prospective homeowners remain sidelined by elevated financing costs.

Consumer Spending

Retail sales surprised to the upside, rising 0.6% in June, with gains in ten of thirteen categories. While headline growth was broad‑based, part of the increase likely reflects higher prices rather than volume, particularly in core goods. Moreover, these figures capture only goods purchases—roughly one‑third of total consumer outlays—while services spending, which comprises most household expenditures, has shown restraint. Discretionary services prices have gotten lower, indicating softer demand. The upcoming personal income and spending report will shed more light on how much of the retail strength reflects real consumption versus inflationary effects.

Consumer Sentiment and Outlook

Preliminary University of Michigan sentiment rose to a five‑month high in July, driven by improved assessments of current conditions. Yet sentiment remains historically subdued, with tariffs and inflation still top of mind. Year‑ahead inflation expectations eased for a second month, and longer‑run expectations remain anchored, suggesting consumers retain some faith in the Fed’s ability to manage price pressures. Nevertheless, cautious consumer attitudes, elevated financing costs, and looming tariff increases on August 1 pose downside risks to growth. Taken together, last week’s data paint a picture of an economy hanging in balance, resilient for now but vulnerable to external shocks and policy uncertainty.

Euro Area,

Inflation in the eurozone held steady in June, with headline CPI at 2.0 percent year‑on‑year—exactly in line with the ECB’s target—and core inflation unchanged at 2.3 percent. Monthly price growth accelerated modestly (0.3 percent headline, 0.4 percent core), as declines in energy and manufactured‑goods costs offset firmer service‑sector prices. With underlying inflation stable, the ECB is set to pause its rate‑cut cycle in July, though looming U.S. tariff threats could complicate the outlook and push any further policy moves toward September.

Private‑sector surveys offered a mixed picture of activity. June’s HCOB composite PMI held at 50.2, signalling stagnation: services returned to modest growth, while manufacturing remained in contraction (PMIs of 50.2 and 48.9, respectively). Against this backdrop, the EU’s trade chief is en route to Washington this week to press for a resolution to pending tariff measures.

Germany saw a sharp improvement in investor sentiment, with July’s ZEW Economic Sentiment index jumping to 52.7—its highest since early 2022—versus expectations of 50.8. However, confidence in current conditions remains deeply negative at –59.5, underscoring ongoing headwinds.

Industrial Production rebounded strongly in May, posting its largest monthly gain in over a year: output rose 1.7 percent month‑on‑month (versus 1.1 percent expected) and 3.7 percent year‑on‑year (against 2.9 percent forecasts). Despite the surge in factory activity, July’s ZEW sentiment for the broader euro area slipped slightly to 36.1.

German Producer Prices remained subdued in June, with PPI flat month‑on‑month after a 0.1 percent rise (in line with forecasts), and annual PPI inflation lingering at –1.3 percent for a tenth straight month of deflation.

Finally, the eurozone current account surplus narrowed in May to €32.3 billion seasonally adjusted (below the €34.8 billion forecast) and plunged to €1.0 billion unadjusted, reflecting softer export growth even as the overall external surplus remains healthy.

United Kingdom

Headline consumer price inflation unexpectedly rose to 3.6 percent in June, the highest reading since January 2024, against market forecasts for a steady 3.4 percent. The jump was driven primarily by higher food and motor fuel costs, denting expectations for an imminent Bank of England rate cut. Core inflation also surprised to the upside, climbing to 3.7 percent versus the 3.5 percent consensus, as firms passed through April’s National Insurance contribution increases and transport costs—especially motor fuels—remained a major driver. Meanwhile, services‑sector inflation held firm at 4.7 percent, defying forecasts of a slowdown to 4.5 percent and underscoring continued price stickiness in areas such as hospitality and personal services.

Labour‑market indicators painted a softer picture. Office for National Statistics payroll data showed a net decline of 178,000 jobs over the year to June, pushing the unemployment rate up to 4.7 percent—the highest level since mid‑2021. Average weekly earnings growth eased to 5.0 percent, consistent with forecasts and suggesting a gradual cooling of wage pressures. Retailers reported slower year‑on‑year store price inflation, yet persistent food‑price and shop‑price rises indicate that headline inflation may prove stubborn.

Taken together, these developments will weigh heavily on the Monetary Policy Committee’s deliberations at its August meeting. Although markets are pricing in a 25 basis‑point cut to 4.00 percent, the persistence of core and services inflation could prompt renewed hawkish dissent. At the same time, rising unemployment, slower wage growth, and broader economic softness argue for a cautious approach, keeping the BoE on track to ease policy at its customary quarterly pace rather than more aggressively.

China

China’s economy grew 5.2 percent year‑on‑year in Q2 2025—slightly above consensus—with industrial output jumping 6.8 percent in June. However, retail sales rose just 4.8 percent and fixed‑asset investment advanced 2.8 percent, weighed down by the ongoing property-sector downturn. The Caixin manufacturing PMI climbed back into expansion at 50.4 in June, up from contraction in May, as new orders improved. Meanwhile, private‑sector services activity cooled to a nine‑month low of 50.6, reflecting softer domestic demand and waning export orders amid persistent U.S. tariff risks.

A broader suite of data released last week painted a mixed picture for momentum heading into the second half of 2025. GDP rose 1.1 percent quarter‑on‑quarter (5.2 percent year‑on‑year), outpacing forecasts of 0.9 percent and 5.1 percent, respectively, but much of the upside stemmed from front‑loaded exports rather than a pickup in domestic consumption or investment. Industrial production accelerated from 5.8 percent to 6.8 percent year‑on‑year in June, yet retail sales disappointed versus the expected 5.3 percent, at 4.8 percent. Government trade‑in subsidies for appliances, electronics, and furniture provided a temporary boost, but other categories—such as cosmetics, beverages, and catering—lagged as many local programs began to wind down.

Looking ahead, the boost from subsidies is already fading, and the August 11 expiration of the U.S.–China tariff truce is likely to weigh on exports and broader activity. With policymakers showing reluctance to deploy larger fiscal stimulus amid budgetary constraints, domestic tailwinds may weaken while external headwinds intensify. As a result, we project China’s GDP growth slowing to 4.7 percent in 2025, down from 5.0 percent in 2024.

Japan

Japan’s core Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.3 percent year‑on‑year in June, down from 3.5 percent in May and marking its slowest pace in three months, yet still well above the Bank of Japan’s 2 percent target. The moderation was broad‑based: electricity and gas prices climbed much more slowly, and inflation eased across housing, transport, healthcare, and recreation categories. By contrast, food inflation accelerated to 7.2 percent—the highest since March—driven by a 100.2 percent surge in rice prices despite government efforts to stabilize staple‑food costs. On a seasonally adjusted basis, consumer prices ticked up just 0.1 percent month‑on‑month, down from a 0.3 percent rise in May, reinforcing signs that inflationary momentum is cooling.

Wholesale inflation also eased, with the Wholesale Price Index up 2.9 percent year‑on‑year in June, relieving some pressure on the BoJ’s quarterly outlook. The Bank of Japan’s June Tankan survey showed a slight improvement in large manufacturers’ confidence, even as firms cautioned about potential U.S. tariff impacts. This resilience in capital‑spending projections, amid muted near‑term growth expectations, may lead officials preparing the July outlook report to adopt a less gloomy tone. We expect the BoJ to hold its policy rate at 0.5 percent at its July meeting, with the rate hike currently penciled in for October potentially delayed until late 2025 or early 2026 if domestic demand remains subdued.

Emerging Economies

India

India’s retail inflation fell to 2.1 percent in June—the lowest in six years—down from 2.8 percent in May and below the 2.3 percent consensus. A 19 percent plunge in vegetable prices and favorable base effects drove the slowdown, while subdued goods inflation helped offset rising gold prices. Core inflation edged up slightly to 4.6 percent from 4.4 percent but remained comfortably within the Reserve Bank of India’s target range. Against this backdrop, the RBI held its repo rate steady after a 50 basis‑point cut in June and trimmed its FY 2026 inflation forecast to 3.7 percent. With price pressures contained but growth momentum softening, we expect a further 25 basis‑point cut in August, bringing the repo rate to 5.25 percent.

Russia

Russia’s annual CPI inflation cooled to 9.4 percent year‑on‑year in June—its slowest pace in seven months—down from 9.9 percent in May. Monthly inflation rose just 0.2 percent. The S&P Global Composite PMI slipped from 51.4 to 48.5, signalling renewed contraction in private‑sector output, while the services PMI dipped into contraction at 49.2. Household inflation expectations held at 13 percent in July, strengthening the case for an initial rate cut when the central bank meets on July 25.

Turkey

Turkey’s headline inflation decelerated to 35.05 percent in June from 35.41 percent in May, with month‑on‑month prices rising 1.37 percent—the weakest gain since December 2024. Factory output remained in contraction as the Istanbul Chamber of Industry’s PMI eased from 47.2 to 46.7. The one‑week repo rate was kept at 46.0 percent in mid‑June, but a Reuters poll forecasts a 250 basis‑point cut to 43.50 percent at the July 24 meeting as inflation cools and market volatility subsides. Nonetheless, political uncertainty and high borrowing costs continue to weigh on activity despite efforts to stabilize the Lira.

Brazil

Brazil’s IBC‑Br GDP indicator contracted by 0.7 percent in May, dragged down by a 4.2 percent drop in agricultural output and a 0.5 percent decline in industrial production. These sector‑specific setbacks highlight the uneven nature of Latin America’s recovery, as agriculture and manufacturing struggle even while services and domestic demand show resilience.

Nigeria

Nigeria’s headline inflation eased for a third consecutive month, slipping to 22.22 percent year‑on‑year in June from 22.97 percent in May. The slowdown reflects a reweighted CPI basket and stable core price pressures, offering modest relief amid broader economic headwinds.

US Economic Outlook, week ahead

Next week’s U.S. economic calendar (July 21–25) opens with the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index for June on Monday, followed by S&P Global flash PMIs on Thursday, midweek home‑sales data, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index, and June durable‑goods orders on Friday. A series of Federal Reserve speeches will bookend the week, providing the final public commentary before the July 29–30 FOMC meeting. Against a backdrop of modest growth and sticky inflation, investors will watch for confirmation that preliminary PMIs remain in expansion territory, housing demand holds near multi‑year lows under high mortgage rates, and business investment moderates after May’s durable‑goods surge. Tariff uncertainty and inventory adjustments pose the primary downside risks. Overall, these releases will either confirm that the U.S. economy is weathering trade‑policy headwinds with steady—but—unspectacular growth or reveal deeper softness that could push Fed rate‑cut plans into late 2025.

Leading Economic Index

The Conference Board’s LEI for June, due Monday, is expected to match May’s 0.1 percent decline to 99.0—its weakest reading since spring 2020—signaling continued headwinds. A flat or slightly negative print would reinforce business caution and temper market expectations for an imminent Fed rate cut.

Flash PMIs

On Thursday, S&P Global will publish its flash U.S. manufacturing and services PMIs for July. June’s composite PMI was 52.1, as robust services output offset softer factory production. July’s flash readings will be gauged for evidence of post‑tariff inventory adjustments and supply‑chain disruptions impacting new orders and employment.

Housing Market

• Existing‑Home Sales: In May, resales rose 0.8 percent to a 4.03 million‑unit annual pace, ending a two‑month slide but remaining 0.7 percent below year‑ago levels amid high mortgage rates. Single‑family sales climbed 1.1 percent, with supply easing to 4.4 months; multifamily sales fell 2.7 percent, leaving a 6.7‑month supply. The median resale price increased 1.3 percent year‑on‑year to $422,800. We forecast June existing‑home sales to dip 0.3 percent to 4.02 million units.
• New‑Home Sales & Homebuilding: In May, new‑home sales dropped 6.3 percent year‑on‑year to 693,000 units. June may remain under pressure, as single‑family housing starts fell 4.6 percent to an 11‑month low, while building permits edged up just 0.2 percent. We expect new‑home sales to rebound 4.8 percent in June to 653,000 units.

Business Investment

Durable‑Goods Orders (Friday): May orders surged 16.4 percent, driven almost entirely by a large civilian aircraft deal between Boeing and Qatar Airways. Defense orders rose for a second month, and computers, electrical equipment, and metals also posted gains. Excluding transportation, orders have been flat, moving no more than ±0.5 percent since September 2024, with May’s non‑transport reading at 0.5 percent. We forecast an 11 percent decline in June orders. Tariff uncertainty, rising input costs, and an unclear growth outlook are prompting manufacturers to curb spending, delay hiring, and scale back capital investment for the remainder of the year.

Federal Reserve Speeches

A lineup of Fed officials—including regional presidents and governors—will speak throughout the week, offering critical guidance on the Fed’s data‑dependent approach. These remarks constitute the final public commentary before the July FOMC, making them a focal point for assessing the odds of a September rate cut.

Risks and Market Implications

• Tariff Uncertainty: The August 1 deadline for new U.S. tariffs (up to 30 percent) on selected imports looms large, with inventory front‑loading already distorting factory orders and PMIs.
• Inventory Adjustments: Firms that stocked up ahead of tariff hikes may now pull back on new orders, weighing on flash PMI and durable‑goods data.
• Geopolitical Tensions: Any resurgence of conflicts in the Middle East could trigger risk‑off moves, amplifying volatility in stocks, bonds, and the U.S. dollar.

Wall Street and U.S. Dollar Outlook (July 21–25)

• Equity markets will focus on heavyweight Q2 earnings, Tesla and Alphabet report on July 23, alongside NXP Semiconductors, Verizon, Comcast, Intuitive Surgical, Texas Instruments, Capital One, and others starting July 21.
• U.S. stock futures remain buoyed by record‑high closes in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, supported by resilient consumer spending and positive earnings surprises, while tariff uncertainty and inventory adjustments present headwinds.
• In FX, the U.S. dollar, down nearly 11 percent year‑to‑date, has stabilized around DXY 98.2, prompting Citi to move its near‑term dollar outlook from bearish to neutral ahead of the Fed’s late‑July meeting and the August 1 tariff deadline.

Wall Street Outlook

Market Sentiment

U.S. equity futures ticked up after the S&P 500 and Nasdaq set fresh record highs, reflecting optimism around tech‑driven growth and consumer resilience. Yet investors remain wary of looming U.S. tariffs, as Q2 inventory front‑loading gives way to potential order pullbacks and revised corporate guidance. Morgan Stanley’s CIO views a 5–10 percent pullback as a buying opportunity, forecasting the S&P 500 at 6,500 by year‑end despite near‑term volatility.

Earnings Calendar Highlights

• Monday, July 21: NXP Semiconductors; Verizon Communications
• Tuesday, July 22: Comcast; Intuitive Surgical; Texas Instruments; América Móvil; Chubb; Canadian National Railway
• Wednesday, July 23: Tesla (after market close); Alphabet (after market close)
• Thursday & Friday: GE Vernova; RTX; Lockheed Martin; Northrop Grumman; other defense/aerospace names

Investor focus will be on forward guidance—especially tariff‑sensitive inputs—and margin outlooks amid rising input costs.

Risks & Implications

• Tariff Policy: New 30 percent tariffs effective August 1 could raise manufacturing costs and cloud earnings guidance.
• Inventory Adjustments: Firms that frontloaded inventories may pull back on orders, dampening July PMI and durable‑goods data.
• Fed Speeches: Remarks by Jerome Powell and other Fed officials ahead of the July 29–30 meeting will be parsed for rate‑cut clues, adding volatility to equity and bond markets.

Technical Analysis

The Nasdaq continues its bull run, with a pivot point at 21,000 and initial support around 22,200. Although prices are reaching new highs, On‑Balance Volume has formed lower highs—a warning signal of a possible correction.

U.S. Dollar Outlook

Fundamentals

After an 11 percent slide in 2025, the DXY index has stabilized near 98.2, buoyed by upside surprises in economic data and the Fed’s pushed‑out rate‑cut expectations. Easing Treasury yields have further softened the dollar ahead of key Fed speeches. Fresh August 1 tariffs may lend temporary support as targeted currencies come under pressure. Net short USD positions exceeding $20 billion suggest potential for a short‑covering bounce if negative catalysts subside.

Technical Analysis

The dollar’s RSI has recovered above 55, signaling stabilization or a potential near‑term rebound. Holding the first key support at 97.30 will be crucial for bulls; a break below that level could open the door to recent lows around 96, though that appears less likely.

Eurozone economic outlook for week 20, 2025

Next week’s euro‑area calendar is headlined by flash PMIs and the European Commission’s consumer‑confidence reading on Wednesday, an ECB policy decision and President Lagarde’s press conference on Thursday, and Germany’s Ifo business‑climate survey on Friday. Reuters-pollled analysts expect the ECB to hold its deposit rate at 2.00 percent on July 24 and defer any further cuts until September, citing a firmer euro and looming U.S. tariff threats. Although Washington has warned of a potential 30 percent levy on EU goods, markets anticipate that trade tensions will remain manageable and not derail the ECB’s pause. Investors will also scrutinize Germany’s Ifo index for fresh insight into the bloc’s largest economy after recent PMI readings signaled stagnant manufacturing and only modest services growth.

Economic Calendar

• July 23 (Wednesday):
• Flash Consumer‑Confidence Indicator (European Commission)
• Flash Eurozone PMI (manufacturing and services; S&P Global & HCOB)
• July 24 (Thursday):
• ECB Governing Council decision on the deposit rate (widely expected at 2.00 percent)
• President Lagarde’s press conference
• July 25 (Friday):
• Germany Ifo Business Climate Index

Key Considerations

• Tariff Risks: U.S. threats of a 30 percent tariff on EU exports—in force as soon as August 1—remain the primary external downside risk. However, past practice suggests a negotiated compromise or delayed implementation, reducing urgency for an immediate ECB policy response.
• Euro Strength: The euro’s roughly 12 percent rally against the dollar this year reinforces headwinds for inflation, complicating the ECB’s decision calculus.
• Political Volatility: Election‑year trade rhetoric and geopolitical flare‑ups (in Ukraine and the Middle East) could drive market swings, keeping policymakers on guard.

ECB Meeting Preview

At its July 24 meeting, the ECB is almost certain to maintain its deposit rate at 2.00 percent, extending its “pause” in the easing cycle. Governing Council members will balance steady core inflation against external headwinds, including trade tensions and currency effects. All eyes will be on President Lagarde’s post‑meeting remarks for any guidance on the timing of the next rate cut, with most economists still penciling in a 25 bp reduction in September to bring the rate to 1.75 percent.

Flash PMIs

July’s preliminary PMIs will offer an early barometer of growth momentum. June’s composite PMI stood at 50.6, with manufacturing at 49.5 and services at 50.5. Consensus forecasts for July anticipate slight gains: manufacturing at 49.8, services at 50.7, and the composite index at 50.8, led by Germany’s factories. While these readings would suggest tentative stabilization, persistent global uncertainties and trade‑policy risks underscore the need for a cautious, data‑dependent ECB stance.

EUR Weekly Outlook

A looming threat of 30 percent U.S. tariffs on EU goods, set to take effect on August 1, remains a major headwind for the euro, favoring the dollar. On the economic data front, sector divergence adds to the common currency’s challenges: June’s services PMI climbed to 50.5, its highest reading in three months, while the manufacturing PMI slipped to 49.5, underscoring persistent factory‑sector weakness.

Technical Outlook

EUR/USD closed last week near 1.1620, marginally higher from recent lows amid U.S. dollar consolidation. Technical indicators suggest limited near‑term upside, with the daily RSI easing back to 50 from overbought territory.

• Resistance: ~1.1700
• Support: ~1.1550
• Pivot: ~1.1620

Gold Market and Outlook

Spot gold traded around $3,350 per ounce heading into the week of July 21–25, after climbing 0.4 percent on Friday amid a softer U.S. dollar and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. Despite a modest weekly pullback, robust central‑bank and investor demand continues to support prices. Technically, gold remains in a strong uptrend, with resistance near $3,360 and support around $3,320. Key catalysts this week include U.S. flash PMIs, ECB and Fed speeches, and the looming August 1 U.S. tariff deadline.

Central banks persist in adding to their gold reserves—purchasing over 1,000 tonnes annually—underscoring long‑term institutional confidence. According to the World Gold Council, gold has rallied 26 percent in dollar terms in H1 2025 amid a range‑bound rate environment and heightened geopolitical risks. However, the Council cautions that a reduction in global risk or a strengthening dollar could weigh on prices in the medium term.

Technical Analysis

• Uptrend: Gold remains in a clear upward trend on the daily chart, with moves above $3,384 viewed as buying opportunities.
• Short‑Term Targets: $3,442 and beyond.
• Support Levels: $3,310 (50‑day moving average), $3,300, $3,260.
• Resistance Levels: $3,360, $3,380, $3,420.
• Risks: A bearish correction could test support at $3,325 before the uptrend resumes. A break below $3,105 would undermine the bullish outlook.

Overall, barring a surprise dollar rally or a shift in central‑bank policy, gold is likely to consolidate within this range, with the primary upside and downside levels to watch at $3,360 and $3,320, respectively.

WTI Market Condition & Weekly Outlook (July 21–25)

WTI crude is trading near $66.00 per barrel after an 8 percent year‑to‑date decline, pressured by forecasts of rising U.S. production and planned OPEC+ output increases. U.S. rig counts rose for the first time in 12 weeks—up seven rigs to 544—providing modest bullish support, though total rigs remain 7 percent below last year’s levels. Technical indicators point to a range‑bound market between $65.00 and $68.00, with key catalysts including weekly inventory reports, flash PMIs, and central‑bank speeches.

Supply Factors

• U.S. Drilling: Baker Hughes reported a seven‑rig increase to 544 rigs—the first uptick in 12 weeks—though oil‑rig activity remains near multi‑year lows.
• OPEC+ Output: The group plans to boost production by 548,000 bpd in August to regain market share.

Demand Drivers

• Goldman Sachs Forecast: Raised its H2 2025 WTI average to $63/bbl, citing tighter non‑OPEC supply and lower OECD inventories; trimmed its 2026 forecast to $52/bbl.

EIA July Short‑Term Energy Outlook (STEO)

• U.S. Production: Downgraded slightly to 13.37 million bpd in 2025 (from 13.42 million bpd), easing to 13.30 million bpd by Q4 2026.
• Price Forecasts: WTI is projected to average $65.22/bbl in 2025 and $54.82/bbl in 2026.
• Consumption: U.S. oil demand is expected to rise modestly to 20.4 million bpd in 2025, led by industrial and transport sectors.

OPEC July Monthly Oil Market Report

• Demand Growth: Maintained at +1.29 million bpd for 2025 and +1.28 million bpd for 2026, driven by resilient air travel and road mobility.
• Supply & Refining: OPEC+ output rose to 41.56 million bpd in June (up 349,000 bpd), and global refinery crude runs increased by 2.1 million bpd month‑on‑month.

Oil remains range‑bound near $65–$68 as traders balance supportive fundamentals—tight seasonal supply, OPEC+ discipline, and healthy demand—against headwinds from unexpected U.S. inventory builds, tariff risks, and a resilient dollar. This week’s inventory data, Fed commentary, and flash PMIs will be pivotal in determining WTI’s next directional move.

Technical Range

• Resistance: $68.00 (break above opens $70.00)
• Support: $65.00 (breach risks $63.00)

Bitcoin Market Condition & Weekly Outlook (July 21–25)

As of July 19, Bitcoin was trading around $117,750, down from a record high of $123,153.22 earlier this week. Institutional demand and new U.S. stablecoin regulations pushed prices above $120,000, but large holders quickly locked in profits, triggering a roughly 5% pullback. The total cryptocurrency market capitalization exceeded $4 trillion, highlighting growing mainstream adoption and recent legislative milestones. Year‑to‑date gains of over 26% have outpaced gold and major equity indices amid a range‑bound rate environment and ongoing geopolitical tensions. However, bearish analysts warn that momentum may falter after the surge past $122,000.

Key Drivers

• Fed Commentary: A series of Federal Reserve speeches this week will be closely watched for signals on rate‑cut timing and overall policy direction.
• Regulation: The U.S. House’s passage of stablecoin legislation—and pending Senate action—will shape the crypto regulatory landscape.
• Geopolitics: Continued EU sanctions on Russia and broader geopolitical risks are driving safe‑haven flows into Bitcoin.

Outlook

Bitcoin is likely to trade within a $110,000–$130,000 range over the coming week. Upside will hinge on bullish macroeconomic surprises or further regulatory clarity, while strong institutional support should cushion any sell‑offs. Traders should monitor U.S. economic data releases, Fed speeches, and stablecoin developments for the next directional cues.

Technical Outlook

Chartists are eyeing $140,000 as the next major resistance level, with initial support around $112,500 (the 20‑day moving average). The recent consolidation phase suggests relief from overbought conditions and a rotation into altcoins, coinciding with a slight dip in Bitcoin’s market dominance.