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Investors spent last week digesting a softer U.S. July jobs report, divergent ISM signals, and a surprise 25-bp Bank of England rate cut delivered on a tight 5–4 vote, surprising the 8-1 expected vote for interest rate cut. Oil slid on growth and trade jitters, gold jumped on tariff ambiguity, and the dollar eased as rate-cut odds crept higher. China’s July CPI printed flat year over year with PPI still deeply negative, reinforcing a picture of subdued domestic demand.
United States: Review & weekly Outlook
In the United States, the tone softened without breaking. Nonfarm payrolls rose by only 73,000 in July, while the prior month’s average was also revised down by a net 258,000. As a reason, the unemployment rate edged up to 4.2 percent, wage growth held reasonably firm, but the overall mix pointed to normalization rather than an imminent downturn—very much a “slow glide” after the strength of 2023–24.
The survey backdrop echoed that message. ISM Manufacturing slipped to 48.0 for a fifth consecutive month below 50, with an employment index in contractionary territory at 43.4. ISM Services cooled to 50.1, with new orders barely in expansion and services employment below 50. Price components in both surveys remained sticky enough to keep the Fed watchful, yet momentum slowed. Stock markets had a positive reaction to these changes. The Nasdaq finished at a record level, the S&P 500 added roughly 2.4 percent on the week, and the Dow climbed about 1.3 percent. The Dollar index, on the other hand, drifted lower by about half a percent on expectations of additional easing in 2025.
Inflation & Policy: Implications for Wall Street and the Dollar
Inflation is therefore the pivot for Wall Street and the dollar. The base case calls for core CPI to rise 0.3 percent month over month, the strongest in six months, nudging core year-over-year back toward roughly 3.0 percent as firmer goods prices are no longer fully offset by softer services. Headline CPI likely advances a milder 0.2 percent on lower gasoline and calmer food. Tariff pass-through appears to be building, yet consumer fatigue is constraining broad pricing power, which argues for firm but not re-accelerating inflation into the fourth quarter.
- A hotter-than-expected core print would pressure duration, compress multiples in long-duration tech, and lend support to the dollar.
- A cooler outcome would extend the “goldilocks” tone, soften the DXY, and encourage a rotation toward cyclicals—especially if Friday’s retail sales and industrial production confirm that demand remains resilient in real terms.
What exactly to watch in the week ahead in the US:
CPI (Tue): After a weak jobs report, inflation is the focal point. July core CPI is expected at +0.3% m/m—the strongest in six months—lifting core y/y back to ~3.0% as firmer goods prices aren’t fully offset by softer services. Headline CPI likely +0.2% m/m on lower gasoline and tamer food. Tariffs are starting to filter through, but consumer fatigue is limiting pricing power. Baseline view: inflation firms but does not re-accelerate; core ~3% annual pace into Q4.
Retail Sales (Fri): Headline sales seen +0.6% m/m, flattered by a rebound in auto sales and slightly higher prices. Ex-autos: +0.3%. Adjusted for inflation, July retail sales are roughly flat. Consumers are becoming choosier, trimming discretionary spending amid a moderate labor market and tariff concerns.
Industrial Production (Fri): Overall flat m/m expected. Utilities likely retrace last month’s surge; manufacturing is mixed. “Hard” activity has outperformed soft surveys, but traditional capex (plants/equipment) is slowing as uncertainty rises. Investment remains concentrated in software and information-processing, aligned with AI adoption.
Policy read-through: With labor softening and only a modest inflation pickup, the base case remains a 25 bp Fed cut in September.
Earnings Roundup & Week-Ahead Watchlist
That market resilience owes a great deal to earnings. Beat rates and surprise magnitudes are running above their long-run averages, particularly among cash-generative, asset-light franchises, where operational discipline and pricing power have cushioned margins. Management commentary has grown more selective on traditional capex—in plants and equipment—while continuing to emphasize spending on software and information processing, consistent with the broader AI productivity cycle.
The leadership profile remains narrow, anchored by mega-cap tech, but the groundwork is there for breadth to improve if financials and industrials can convert better macro prints into higher forward estimates. Into this week, the earnings lens will focus on three things: the durability of margins if input costs re-accelerate; the split between price and volume as choosier consumers sift spending; and the direction of revisions after CPI and PPI either validate or challenge the disinflation path. In short, earnings still provide a cushion for equities, but long-duration names will be sensitive to any upside inflation surprise.
Palantir (PLTR) Aug 4, 2025, was the week’s most important earnings print.
AMD (AMD), Caterpillar (CAT), Amgen (AMGN), Pfizer (PFE), McDonald’s (MCD), Walt Disney (DIS), Shopify Inc (SHOP), Uber Tech (UBER), and Eli Lilly (LLY) were the most important earnings of the previous week.
AMD (Aug 5) posted record $7.7B revenue, but the stock wobbled on margin/segment mix, while Disney (Aug 6–7) beat and raised on streaming progress—both notable, but less paradigm-shifting than Palantir’s AI-driven re-acceleration.
Palantir delivered record quarterly revenue (up ~48% y/y, first >$1B quarter) and sharply raised full-year guidance on surging AI demand across U.S. commercial and government customers. The beat-and-raise propelled the stock to new highs and reinforced the broader AI spending cycle, spilling over to software and semi names. In a week crowded with AMD and Disney, Palantir’s combination of scale inflection + guidance lift had the clearest cross-asset narrative impact.
Earnings of the week (August 11-15)
· Mon, Aug 11
Barrick Gold (GOLD), Franco-Nevada (FNV), AAON (AAON), AMC Entertainment (AMC)
· Tue, Aug 12
Cardinal Health (CAH), Sea Ltd (SE), Tencent Music (TME)
· Wed, Aug 13
Cisco Systems (CSCO)
· Thu, Aug 14
Deere (DE), JD.com (JD), Applied Materials (AMAT)
· Fri, Aug 15
Flowers Foods (FLO)
Australia: RBA Decision, Statement Signals & AUD Scenarios
Australia’s Reserve Bank steps into this mix with policy at the center of the stage. The macro backdrop has softened enough to tilt the bias toward easing, especially with slower economic growth expectations in China, but inflation concerns are still in the game. Q2 CPI slowed to 2.1 percent year over year (trimmed mean 2.7 percent), unemployment in June edged up to 4.3 percent, and retail turnover rose 1.2 percent month over month—a helpful near-term lift that doesn’t change the broader consumption downshift.
Considering the data mentioned, consensus looks for a 25-bp cut to around 3.60 percent, paired with data-dependent guidance in the Statement on Monetary Policy. The Board’s message is likely to emphasize a gradual, measured approach given global uncertainty, with scope for additional moves into November and February if the data permit, taking the cash rate toward the low-3s by early 2026.
For FX traders, a well-telegraphed cut argues for a mild, knee-jerk AUD dip, but the U.S. CPI print roughly a day later can easily dominate DXY direction; a softer dollar would limit AUD downside and could even invite a “sell-the-rumor, buy-the-fact” stabilization if the RBA avoids signaling a rapid easing cycle.
Gold (XAU) Weekly Review & Outlook
Gold dominated headlines last week. Spot briefly traded above $3,410 and settled near $3,400, while U.S. futures printed a record intraday high around $3,534/oz and settled near $3,491. The spark was reports that U.S. Customs reclassified one-kilo/100-oz bars, potentially exposing standard bullion to steep tariffs—a particular issue for Swiss-refined metal. As logistics seized up and some shippers paused U.S. deliveries, the futures–spot spread widened, and volatility jumped. A softer DXY added an extra tailwind.
Policy clarity matters. If authorities exempt standard bullion bars, futures premia should narrow, and the squeeze should fade. An affirmation of tariffs, by contrast, risks persistent dislocations and an inventory shift toward London/Asia hubs.
Macro catalysts. This week’s U.S. CPI/PPI is pivotal. A benign CPI—especially core ≤2.9% y/y—would likely pull yields and the dollar lower, supporting gold. An upside-showing surprise could trigger a tactical pullback.
Positioning & narrative. Expect two-way trade as systematic strategies recalibrate after the spike. Macro hedgers remain active on “insurance” demand (tariffs/geopolitics), but price action is headline sensitive. There’s also a growing debate over gold’s safe-haven appeal at elevated prices: as a non-yielding asset, the carry becomes more burdensome if the Fed doesn’t deliver further near-term cuts.
Levels & risks. Elevated realized volatility argues for wider ranges. If tariffs are clarified away and CPI is tame, dipping into the $3,300s should attract buyers. If policy uncertainty lingers and inflation proves sticky, a re-test of $3,450–$3,500 is plausible.
WTI Crude — Weekly Review & Outlook
WTI fell about 5.1% w/w to roughly $63.4, its steepest weekly drop since late June, as tariff-driven demand worries and chatter about potential U.S.–Russia talks weighed on sentiment. Mid-week, the EIA reported a 3 mb crude draw and refinery runs near 96.9%, which briefly steadied prices, but the macro-overhang reasserted itself into Friday’s close.
Drivers. Normally, a draw alongside tight product stocks would support crack spreads and WTI. This time, markets fixated on growth/flow risks—new or proposed tariffs that could sap trade and ongoing uncertainty around Russia-related supply dynamics. Both Brent and WTI finished the week down more than 4%.
What to watch next.
- The next EIA weekly: do refinery runs stay elevated, and does Cushing rebuild? A second straight draw would help anchor prices in the low-$60s.
- Monthly outlooks: the EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, plus the IEA and OPEC oil reports. Any upgrade to demand or downgrade to supply would be price-positive, and vice versa.
Macro & geopolitics. Any concrete developments on U.S.–Russia relations or clarity on secondary sanctions could whipsaw the term structure. The base case remains range-bound $60–$70 while demand anxiety lingers. A softer U.S. CPI would aid risk assets and crude; a hot print risks another leg lower on growth fears.
Risk skew & strategy. Near-term downside tails are tied to tariffs and slower demand; upside tails require firm drawing or policy headlines that ease supply-chain risks. Tactically, a range-trading approach—fade extremes within $60–$70—looks sensible. Initial support ~$62 and resistance ~$67; a break of likely invites a test of the range edges.
Bitcoin (BTC) Weekly Review & Outlook
BTC was relatively calm compared with metals and oil, trading mostly in a $114k–$118k range and finishing near $116.6k. A Dow Jones/Morningstar read showed -0.9% on Friday, consistent with chops rather than trend. Correlations re-tightened with mega-cap tech as the Nasdaq notched a record.
Drivers. Softer U.S. data and a slightly weaker dollar provided a mild tailwind, helping BTC hold recent gains. Tariff headlines created cross-asset noise but had a limited direct impact on crypto. Bigger picture: after July’s push above $120k and subsequent pullback, leverage looks modest, and dips are being absorbed—evident in intraday resilience.
Outlook. As with other risk assets, U.S. CPI is the pivot. A cooler print likely extends risk-on and could carry BTC back toward $118k–$120k; a hotter core risks a risk-off move toward $112k–$114k support.
What to watch. Keep an eye on ETF inflows and whether last week’s equity leadership broadens—higher beta helps BTC. Expect event-risk volatility to stay elevated into Wednesday; post-CPI, look for realized vol to mean-revert unless fresh tariff headlines re-ignite cross-asset swings.
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