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Global Markets Rise on Fed Cut Bets | Daily Market Update — Nov 25, 2025

A comprehensive look at the global market landscape on November 25, 2025, as investors react to dovish Fed signals, shifting rate-cut expectations, rising geopolitical tensions in Asia, and cautious optimism across equities. This update covers movements in currencies, commodities, gold, crypto, Asian and U.S. markets, along with key economic data releases and the latest developments in global diplomacy.

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author: Economician

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published:Nov 25, 2025 3:11

category:daily

Daily Market Update — November 25, 2025

Flying Blind on a Dovish Wing

Global markets are trading in a cautious risk-on mode as investors continue to reposition around a rapidly shifting U.S. rate outlook, renewed diplomatic activity between major powers, volatile FX dynamics—particularly the yen—and a mixed backdrop across commodities and precious metals.

Global Market Overview

A strong rebound in risk sentiment—sparked by dovish comments from several Federal Reserve officials—helped lift global equities, especially in Asia and the U.S. tech complex. However, European futures point to a softer open as traders digest stretched valuations and remain wary of ongoing uncertainty around macro data, which has been delayed by the 43-day U.S. government shutdown that ended November 14.

In parallel, phone diplomacy took center stage:

U.S. President Donald Trump called U.S.–China relations “extremely strong” after a conversation with President Xi Jinping.
Trump also held his first call with Japan’s Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi amid heightened Sino-Japanese tensions.

Markets remain laser-focused on the Fed: Governor Christopher Waller reinforced the view that a weakening labor market supports a December rate cut, pushing rate expectations aggressively higher. CME FedWatch now prices an 81% probability of a quarter-point cut—up from 42% just a week ago.

Asia Session — Tech-Led Rebound as Rate Cut Bets Surge

Asian equities rallied on Tuesday, led by a powerful rebound in technology stocks:

MSCI Asia ex-Japan: +1.0%

On track for a 3.8% monthly decline, the first since March

Nikkei 225: +0.8% after Monday’s holiday, following a 3.5% drop last week

Traders welcomed easing volatility and renewed belief in the Fed’s “put,” fueling a classic post-selloff bounce.

Fed shift highlights:

Waller and Daly both signaled support for a December rate cut
Markets now price an 85.1% probability

U.S. Treasury yields in Asia were steady:

10-year at 4.03%
2-year at 3.48%

The U.S. dollar softened marginally—but remains supported ahead of this week’s data releases.

Currencies — Yen Vigil Continues as Intervention Fears Build

The yen remains at the center of FX attention:

USD/JPY trades near 156.95
Not far from last week’s 10-month low at 157.90
Traders expect potential intervention around 158–162

Tensions between Japan and China add geopolitical pressure—after Beijing objected strongly to Takaichi’s remarks that a Chinese attack on Taiwan could trigger a Japanese military response.

Key FX moves:

Euro: $1.1522
Sterling: $1.3103
NZD: flat at $0.5607
AUD: $0.6461
CNY: slightly firmer as Trump plans a Beijing visit in April
Broader Asian FX: muted and range-bound

Despite rising rate-cut bets, the dollar index holds near 100.2, as fiscal concerns in developed markets and a lack of fresh U.S. data prevent deeper USD weakness.

U.S. Markets — Tech Surge Leads Major Rebound

Wall Street saw its strongest session in months:

Dow Jones: +0.44%
S&P 500: +1.55%
Nasdaq Composite: +2.69%
Best daily gain since May 12
Best two-day performance since November 2024

A classic rotation occurred:

Over-sold growth and tech rebounded sharply
Leveraged positions were flushed out last week
Dip buyers focused on high-beta cyclicals

U.S. markets will close Thursday for Thanksgiving and trade half-day Friday—liquidity could thin.

Commodities — Oil Softens on Oversupply Risk; Gold Extends Gains

Oil Market

Oil prices eased modestly:

Brent: $63.10 (-0.4%)
WTI: $58.61 (-0.4%)

Drivers:

Growing expectations of oversupply in 2026
Deutsche Bank forecasts a 2 million bpd surplus next year
Russia exploring expanded crude sales to China
Peace-talk uncertainty in the Ukraine war adds volatility but doesn’t change the broader oversupply narrative

Market remains torn between:

→ Supply excess concerns

→ Support from expectations of a Fed rate cut