Outlooks

Daily Market Update – November 14, 2025

Today’s Daily Market Update (Nov 14, 2025) covers the reopening of the U.S. government after a 43-day shutdown, fading Fed rate-cut expectations, and a global shift to risk-off sentiment. Bitcoin breaks below $100,000 as institutional outflows accelerate, while Asian and European equities retreat on weak Chinese data. Oil rises on geopolitical risks, and the U.S. dollar hits its lowest level of the month. Read the full update for insights on macro conditions, FX moves, equity performance, commodities, and the crypto market.

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author: Economician

published:Nov 16, 2025 14:28

category:daily

US Government Reopens, Fed Cut Hopes Fade, Bitcoin Breaks Below $100k

Macro & Politics – Washington reopens, but risks stay on the table

After a record-long 43-day U.S. government shutdown, federal agencies are reopening, and more than 1.4 million federal workers are heading back to work. Back pay is scheduled to start flowing from Saturday, with all payments expected to be completed by mid-week.

The deal:

The government funds only until January 30, meaning the risk of another shutdown early next year is very real.
Does not resolve the core political fights: expiring health subsidies and broader spending control.
Pauses President Trump’s downsizing drive temporarily, but he remains on track to cut around 300,000 civil service jobs by year-end unless politics shift again.

The shutdown left:

Economic data gaps – key releases such as the October jobs report may never appear, leaving the Fed partially “flying blind” into its December meeting.
An estimated $50 billion in delayed spending and a 1.5 percentage point hit to GDP, according to the CBO, with about $14 billion in activity likely lost for good.
Disruption to small business loans (around $5.3 billion delayed), SNAP food aid (impacting 42 million people), and air travel, where staffing shortages triggered thousands of cancellations.

Politically, neither side emerges as a clear winner. A Reuters/Ipsos poll shows blame is split almost evenly between Republicans (50%) and Democrats (47%), and intra-party tensions—especially among Democrats over health subsidies—remain elevated. Crucially, the deal did little to address the $38 trillion national debt, which continues to grow rapidly.

Fed & Rates – December cut now a coin toss

Markets sharply repriced Fed expectations this week. With the shutdown disrupting key inflation and labor data, policymakers are leaning more cautiously:

St. Louis Fed’s Alberto Musalem signaled limited room to ease without risking an overly loose stance.
Cleveland Fed’s Beth Hammack argued policy should remain restrictive to keep pressure on inflation.
Minneapolis Fed’s Neel Kashkari said he opposed a cut last month and is “on the fence” about December.

Futures markets now see roughly a coin-flip probability of a 25 bp rate cut on December 10–11, down sharply from stronger cut expectations earlier in the week.

In bonds:

The 10-year Treasury yield is hovering around 4.12%, little changed but off the recent lows.
The 2-year yield trades near 3.59%, reflecting the recalibration of near-term policy bets.

Despite slightly higher yields, the U.S. dollar index slipped toward 98.90, its lowest level of the month, suggesting FX markets are more focused on growth uncertainty and political risk than on the marginal tweak in rate expectations.

Equities – Risk sentiment softens after a strong run

After a four-day winning streak on Wall Street, U.S. stocks pulled back on Thursday, and that weakness spilled into Asia and Europe:

MSCI Asia ex-Japan fell about 1.5% as dip-buying faded through the session.
S&P 500 e-mini futures swung from modest gains to trade slightly in the red (~-0.1%) during Asian hours.

In early Europe:

Euro Stoxx 50 futures are down about 0.4%
FTSE futures are lower by around 0.5%
DAX futures are managing a marginal +0.1%

Sentiment is further weighed down by weaker-than-expected Chinese October data, with factory output and retail sales growing at their slowest pace in over a year—another reminder that global growth remains fragile.

Today’s corporate focus in Europe includes Allianz, Swiss Re, and Rolls-Royce Holdings, which could set the tone for financials and industrials.

FX – Sterling knocked by UK fiscal U-turn

In G10 FX, the dollar’s softness has not translated into broad strength elsewhere:

GBP/USD is under pressure, last around $1.31, after reports that Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Chancellor Rachel Reeves have dropped plans to raise income tax rates ahead of the November 26 budget.
The shift removes a near-term tax risk but raises questions about how the UK will square fiscal promises with limited room to maneuver.

The euro trades with a slightly cautious tone ahead of:

France’s October CPI, and
Eurozone releases on Q3 employment, trade balance, and Q3 GDP flash, all of which will help shape the ECB outlook narrative.

Crypto – Bitcoin breaks $100k and heads for third red week

Bitcoin is the focal point in risk assets today, with price action turning distinctly negative:

BTC/USD dropped below $100,000, sliding about 4.2% to ~$97,800, with an intraday low near $96,900—its weakest level since May.
The coin is on track for a third straight negative week, reflecting waning risk appetite and fading expectations of a rapid Fed easing cycle.

Key pressures:

Fed cut bets for December have faded, undermining the “liquidity hope” that had supported speculative assets.

Institutional demand is cooling:

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw nearly $897 million in outflows on Thursday, also on pace for a third consecutive week of net redemptions.
Corporate treasuries and ETF flows have turned more cautious as Bitcoin has chopped in a tight range through October and early November.

The selloff is broad-based across crypto:

Ether (ETH) is down around 9% on the day and more than 7% on the week, near $3,160.
BNB is lower by about 5%, and XRP is down roughly 8%.
Solana and Cardano are each off 8.5–9%.
Meme tokens such as Dogecoin and $TRUMP are also down more than 7%.

Overall, the market is in a risk-off, de-leveraging phase, with little immediate catalyst for a sharp reversal unless macro data or Fed communication shifts meaningfully.

Commodities – Oil supported by geopolitics

Oil is firmer, supported by fresh geopolitical headlines:

Brent crude is up around 1.5% near $63.96 after reports of a Ukrainian drone attack damaging a Russian oil depot.

The move reflects a supply-risk premium returning to the market even as demand concerns persist amid softer global data and lingering uncertainty around U.S. fiscal and monetary policy.

Gold isn’t in today’s main data flow, but against a backdrop of political risk, weaker data visibility, and higher volatility in crypto, safe-haven demand is likely to stay underpinned, even if price action consolidates.