Outlooks

Daily Market Update — November 12, 2025

The U.S. government is on the brink of reopening, potentially restoring pay to unpaid federal workers and ending a drought of economic data that has left the Federal Reserve operating virtually blind for more than a month. Members of Congress, eager for visibility, have taken creative routes back to Washington D.C. — from carpooling with colleagues to one congressman’s 16-hour Harley Davidson ride across the country — as lawmakers return to vote on reopening the government.

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author: Ahura Chalaki

174

published:Nov 16, 2025 14:28

category:daily

U.S. Government Shutdown Nears Its End

The Republican-controlled House is expected to vote later today on a compromise that would restore funding to government agencies and officially end a shutdown that began on October 1, now the longest in U.S. history.

Optimism over a resolution has fueled a risk-on sentiment, pushing U.S. stocks higher and lifting the dollar from its recent monthly lows.

Global Market Overview

U.S. equities:

Futures on the S&P 500 e-mini were slightly higher ahead of the vote, following a third consecutive day of gains on Tuesday.

Asia:

The MSCI Asia-Pacific ex-Japan Index gained 0.3%, while Japan’s Topix surged 1% to a new record high despite a sharp 10% drop in SoftBank Group shares. The tech conglomerate has now lost 25% month-to-date after announcing the sale of its entire stake in Nvidia on Tuesday — though SoftBank remains up more than 100% year-to-date.

In contrast, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) jumped 4.8% in after-hours trading, after projecting $100 billion in annual data center chip revenue within five years, aiming to triple its earnings over the same period.

Europe:

In early European trade, pan-region futures rose 0.3%, German DAX futures advanced 0.4%, and FTSE futures remained flat.

Key Developments to Watch — Wednesday, November 12

Earnings Reports

Infineon Technologies
Experian PLC
SSE PLC

Economic Data

Germany: CPI for October

Debt Auctions

Germany: 21-year and 31-year government bonds

Market Snapshot

FX / Currencies

The U.S. Dollar traded mixed as markets weighed conflicting economic signals and awaited key data. Lingering concerns over regional banking stability kept sentiment cautious.

Crypto

Cryptocurrencies remained range-bound, lacking a decisive catalyst, as investors awaited clearer cues from traditional markets.

Commodities

Commodity prices were modestly affected — oil gained support amid supply concerns, while gold remained steady as a safe-haven amid market uncertainty.

Indices

Global equity indices showed slight gains, but overall momentum remained muted as investors weighed upside potential against ongoing macroeconomic risks.

Winners & Losers

🏆 Winners:

Gold: Safe-haven flows picked up amid persistent macro uncertainty.
Oil (Commodities): Supply concerns supported upside despite weak demand signals.

📉 Losers:

Cryptocurrencies: Lack of fresh catalysts left them range-bound and underperforming.
Tech / Equity Momentum: Macro risks and valuation caution cooled investor enthusiasm.

Today’s Outlook & Risks

Markets open the day with moderate upside potential, yet remain closely tied to macroeconomic developments and upcoming data releases.

Key risks include:

Delayed or incomplete economic data releases are leaving investors guessing.
Renewed banking sector stress or potential regulatory shocks.
Limited surprises in inflation or corporate earnings results.

Investors will closely watch bond yields and U.S. dollar strength as leading indicators of market direction.

Most Important Economic Calendar Events

Release of key inflation and production data from Europe and emerging markets, notably industrial production figures.
Corporate earnings updates, especially from major technology firms, could influence sentiment if results deviate from expectations.
Monitoring of bond yields (especially U.S. 10-year) and the Dollar Index for signs of shifting risk appetite.