Daily Market Update: May 29, 2025

Global Market Sentiment

Markets cheered a U.S. Court of International Trade ruling that found Trump had overstepped his authority in imposing April tariffs, boosting both equities and commodity prices.

Asia-Pacific Markets

• Japan: The Nikkei 225 jumped, supported by strong corporate earnings and a weaker yen.
• South Korea: The KOSPI climbed 1.8%.
• China: The CSI 300 added 0.6% on the tariff news despite lingering trade uncertainty.

European Markets

The pan-European STOXX 600 rose 0.2%, led by basic-materials stocks, while Germany’s DAX 40 gained 0.4%, hovering near record highs. U.K. markets outperformed, with the FTSE 100 up 0.5% amid hopes for easing trade tensions.

U.S. Markets

With U.S. exchanges closed for Memorial Day, futures rallied sharply: S&P 500 futures gained 1.5%, Dow Jones futures rose 1.3%, and Nasdaq futures surged 2.0% following the court decision and upbeat Nvidia earnings. In the cash market, the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq each fell about 0.5% as investors digested Federal Reserve minutes highlighting the risks of rising inflation and unemployment—chip-designer stocks, including Nvidia, saw late-session declines.

Cryptocurrencies

Bitcoin took a breather, trading slightly lower amid profit-taking ahead of a major conference in Las Vegas. JD Vance’s keynote at the event emphasized U.S. crypto leadership, potentially influencing sentiment.

Currencies

• U.S. Dollar: The DXY index briefly broke above 100.00 before pulling back, driven by optimism over U.S.-China trade talks and a U.S.-UK trade agreement, though concerns about Trump’s influence on Fed policy persist.
• Euro: Down at $1.1274.
• Yen: Slipped to ¥145.42 per dollar.
• Rouble: Russia’s rouble soared past 78 to the dollar—its strongest in two years—after Moscow proposed new peace talks with Kyiv.

Commodities

• Oil: Brent crude surged 1.6% to $65.93/bbl on supply worries after OPEC+ held output steady and the U.S. capped Venezuelan exports; WTI rose in tandem.
• Gold: Slipped 0.4% to around $3,339.99/oz as investors rotated into equities.
• Natural Gas: Hit 11-month highs on supply constraints and geopolitical risks.

Fixed Income & Economic Data

U.S. Treasury yields edged higher as Fed rate-cut bets faded—CME FedWatch pegs the June cut probability at just 2% and July at 24%. Global issuance of U.S. dollar-denominated sovereign debt plunged 19% to $86.2 billion in the first five months of 2025, marking the first drop in three years as non-U.S. governments shun higher U.S. yields.

Geopolitical Developments

• A U.S. federal court ruled that Trump exceeded presidential authority with his tariffs, triggering a relief rally but raising policy-uncertainty concerns.
• European defense spending is on the rise amid broader geopolitical tensions.
• Progress in U.S.-China trade talks and a U.S.-UK trade deal are bolstering optimism.

Other Notable Developments

• Fed Minutes: The May 6–7 minutes highlighted “difficult trade-offs” between rising inflation and unemployment, warning of elevated recession risks.
• GDP Revision: Second estimates of U.S. Q1 GDP are due today; analysts expect minimal revisions from the preliminary –0.3% reading, focusing on inventory swings and trade flows.
• Strategist View: Fidelity’s Jurrien Timmer warns of a potentially range-bound U.S. market over the next 6–12 months, recommending diversification into international equities, gold, and cash.

Outlook

Markets remain sensitive to U.S. policy shifts, Fed actions, and geopolitical events. Today’s key data releases—including the Q1 GDP revision, weekly Jobless Claims, and Pending Home Sales—could drive further volatility.