Daily Market Update | Wednesday, April 8, 2026: Ceasefire Relief, Oil Drops, and Fed Minutes in Focus

Daily Market Update

Markets are trading in a relief rally after the U.S. and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire tied to reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Reuters says the waterway typically carries about 20% of global oil and gas flows; Brent dropped below $100, Asian equities rallied, and U.S./European futures pointed higher. The catch is that the deal still looks fragile, so headline risk remains high.

Overnight snapshot

• Brent fell sharply, with Reuters citing around $91.70/bbl after a roughly 16% drop; spot gold rose to about $4,819/oz at 0534 GMT as markets reassessed near-term risk; Bitcoin traded near $71,830.
• The dollar lost some safe-haven support as the ceasefire improved risk appetite, while Gulf equities surged; Reuters reported Dubai up 6.7% and Abu Dhabi up 4.5%.

News and market movers

• The RBNZ kept the Official Cash Rate at 2.25% and warned it could move “decisively” if war-driven inflation proves persistent.
• The RBI also stayed on hold, keeping the repo rate at 5.25%, retaining a neutral stance, and projecting FY2026-27 growth at 6.9% with inflation at 4.6%.
• Overnight macro data were mixed: Japan’s average cash earnings rose 3.3% y/y versus 2.7% expected, Germany’s factory orders rose 0.9% m/m versus a 3.0% forecast, and UK Halifax house prices fell 0.5% m/m against expectations for a 0.2% rise.

Economic calendar

In GMT, the main items today are euro-area retail sales and PPI in the European morning, U.S. crude inventories later in the U.S. session, and the Fed minutes at 18:00 GMT. Forex Factory also lists a speech from San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly and a U.S. 10-year auction on Wednesday.

What matters today

The market has shifted from pure panic to conditional relief: lower oil prices are helping risk assets and reviving rate-cut hopes, but physical oil markets remain tight, and Reuters notes that supply-chain stress remains severe, especially in Asia. Today’s real test is whether the ceasefire translates into actual flows through Hormuz and whether the Fed minutes reinforce or challenge the easing in inflation fears.