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Daily Market Update
Global markets head into Friday with thin holiday liquidity and high event risk. U.S. stock markets are closed for Good Friday, and U.S. fixed income is on an early close schedule, but the March U.S. jobs report still hits today and remains the main macro event for traders.
The dominant theme is still energy shock + geopolitics. Reuters reported that after President Trump vowed more attacks on Iranian infrastructure, Brent settled Thursday at $109.03 and WTI at $111.54, while front-month U.S. crude briefly traded near $113.97. J.P. Morgan said oil could move toward $120–$130 near term and potentially above $150 if Hormuz disruptions persist into mid-May.
On the policy side, the Bank of Japan kept the door open to further rate hikes if its forecasts hold, even as the Iran war squeezes firms through higher fuel costs. In Europe, the EU energy commissioner warned the bloc should prepare for a “long-lasting” energy shock. That combination keeps the market stuck in a stagflation-style mindset: higher energy costs, tighter financial conditions, and more cautious central-bank expectations.
Market movers
- Oil: still the main driver after Thursday’s surge; supply stress and Hormuz headlines remain the biggest cross-asset catalyst.
- FX/rates: Reuters reported the dollar regained ground on Thursday, with the euro at $1.1536, sterling at $1.3222, and the U.S. 10-year yield at 4.305% as traders repositioned ahead of payrolls.
- Crypto: Bitcoin is around $67,030 and Ether around $2,067, showing that crypto remains one of the few major risk assets still offering live price discovery while cash equities are shut.
Today’s key events / economic calendar
- Japan Services PMI
- Spain, Italy, France, Germany, the Eurozone, and the UK services/composite PMI releases
- U.S. Employment Situation / Nonfarm Payrolls
- Brazil Services PMI
- Canada Services PMI
What to watch most today
- U.S. payrolls. Reuters says consensus is around +60,000 jobs, 4.4% unemployment, and +0.3% m/m wage growth.
- Oil reaction after payrolls. A strong labor print with oil still elevated would reinforce the “higher-for-longer” inflation concern.
- Weekend risk into Sunday’s OPEC+ meeting. Reuters reports the group is likely to weigh another output increase for May, though its real impact depends on whether Hormuz reopens.
Bottom line: today is a payrolls-driven, holiday-thinned session where the cleanest price discovery is likely to show up in FX, oil, rates, and crypto, not in U.S. cash equities. The market is still trading the same macro equation: war → oil → inflation risk → central-bank caution.
Q&A
Q: What is the main market theme for Friday, April 3, 2026?
A: The main theme is energy shock, geopolitics, and U.S. payrolls risk in a thin holiday trading session.
Q: Why is liquidity lower today?
A: U.S. equity markets are closed for Good Friday, and U.S. fixed-income trading is on an early close schedule.
Q: What is the key economic event today?
A: The main event is the U.S. March Employment Situation / Nonfarm Payrolls report.
Q: Which assets are most important to watch today?
A: Oil, FX, bond yields, and crypto are the main markets to watch.
Q: Why is oil so important right now?
A: Oil remains the central driver because geopolitical tensions and Hormuz-related supply risks are feeding into inflation and rate expectations.
Q: What is the broader macro message?
A: Markets are still trading the same chain: war → oil → inflation risk → central-bank caution.
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