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Markets Hold a Cautious Tone as Oil Risk and CPI Take Center Stage
Global markets enter Friday with a cautious tone rather than a full risk-off mood. The U.S.-Iran ceasefire agreed this week is looking more strained, while shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains heavily disrupted. Reuters reported that S&P 500 e-mini futures were flat, MSCI Asia-Pacific ex-Japan was up 0.8%, Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 1.6%, and Brent crude climbed 0.7% to $96.57 a barrel. Reuters also reported that traffic through the Strait of Hormuz was still well below 10% of normal volumes on Thursday, with only seven ships passing in the previous 24 hours versus about 140 normally.
Thursday’s Wall Street session ended higher, showing that investors are still willing to add risk when geopolitical headlines stabilize. The Dow rose 0.58%, the S&P 500 gained 0.62%, and the Nasdaq advanced 0.83%. Consumer discretionary led the move, helped by Amazon after Andy Jassy said the company’s cloud AI services are generating annualized revenue of more than $15 billion, while the energy sector was the weakest major group, even as front-month WTI settled up 3.66% and remained below $100 per barrel.
Economic Calendar
Today’s key macro event is the U.S. March Consumer Price Index report, scheduled for Friday, April 10, 2026, at 08:30 AM by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Reuters also flagged Germany’s March CPI and HICP, Germany’s February current account, and a U.K. auction of 1-month, 3-month, and 6-month government debt as the main European calendar items. In practical terms, today’s market reaction is likely to be driven first by oil and Strait of Hormuz headlines, then by U.S. inflation data, and then by the response in the dollar, yields, equities, and gold.
Q&A
What is the main market driver today?
The main driver is the combination of fragile ceasefire conditions in the Middle East and the ongoing disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, with the U.S. CPI report acting as the day’s main macro trigger.
Which assets are most sensitive today?
Oil is the first market to watch, but the dollar, Treasury yields, gold, and U.S. equity futures are also highly sensitive because they are reacting both to inflation risk and to geopolitical headlines.
What is the key item on the economic calendar?
The most important scheduled release is the U.S. March CPI report at 08:30 AM on April 10, 2026.
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