Daily Market Update – Global Risk Rally as Fed Cut Bets Surge (Nov. 26, 2025)

Podcast by Ahura Chalki

Content created with AI assistance and edited by a human

Key Takeaways

• UK in focus: Finance Minister Rachel Reeves is set to unveil a tax-heavy budget later today, with sterling rising for a fifth straight session.
• Japan shifts tone: The BoJ is preparing markets for a potential rate hike as early as next month, while PM Sanae Takaichi’s popularity fuels talk of snap elections.
• Antipodean FX moves: The kiwi jumps after the RBNZ ends its easing cycle; the Aussie rallies on hotter-than-expected inflation that cools further rate-cut bets.
• Gold rallies: Weak U.S. data and growing expectations of a December Fed cut drive gold and other precious metals higher as the dollar retreats.
• Equities rebound: Asian stocks, especially tech, surge on hopes of Fed easing, though Hong Kong and mainland China lag.
• Oil under pressure: Peace-talk headlines and a smaller-than-expected U.S. crude draw keep a lid on prices despite a modest intraday bounce.
• China & crypto: China quietly reclaims a double-digit share of global Bitcoin mining capacity despite its 2021 ban, supported by cheap power and excess data-center capacity.

1. UK Budget Puts Spotlight on Rachel Reeves, Supports Sterling

It is shaping up to be a make-or-break day for Britain’s finance minister, Rachel Reeves, who will present a budget later today that is expected to include tens of billions of pounds in new tax increases. The package is seen as a key test of the government’s fiscal credibility and political capital.

In FX markets, sterling is up 0.2% at $1.3193 in Asian trading, rising for a fifth consecutive session ahead of Reeves’ speech, which is scheduled to begin at 12:30 GMT. The pound’s steady grind higher suggests investors are cautiously optimistic that the budget will balance revenue-raising with growth considerations.

2. Japan: BoJ Turns More Hawkish as Election Risk Builds

In Japan, the yen rallied 0.2% versus the U.S. dollar after reports that the Bank of Japan is preparing markets for a possible interest rate hike as early as next month.

According to sources, last week’s meeting between new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda has given the central bank more room to lean away from ultra-loose policy, as political pressure to maintain negative or near-zero rates fades.

Takaichi’s high approval ratings also have political implications. The Yomiuri reported that opposition parties are ramping up preparations for potential snap elections, adding an extra layer of uncertainty to Japan’s policy outlook.

3. Antipodean FX: Kiwi Surges as RBNZ Ends Easing, Aussie Rallies on Hot CPI

The New Zealand dollar was one of the standout movers in Asia:

• NZD/USD surged 1.2% after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut its policy rate by 25 basis points to 2.25%, in line with expectations.
• Crucially, the RBNZ removed its dovish guidance and signalled that the easing cycle is likely over, projecting the cash rate at 2.20% in Q1 2026, effectively closing the door to further cuts for now.

The Australian dollar also moved sharply higher:

• AUD/USD jumped 0.5–0.6%, supported by hotter-than-expected October CPI data.
• Headline inflation rose 3.8% in October, driven by surging rents and electricity prices, while underlying inflation also firmed.
• The data has dampened expectations of additional rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of Australia, with some analysts now warning that the RBA may hold off on any new easing until the second half of 2026.

4. Fed Outlook & Dollar: December Cut Odds Keep Rising

Across global markets, the U.S. rate path remains the dominant macro driver.

A batch of middling U.S. economic data for September — including barely growing retail sales and a larger-than-expected decline in core producer inflation — has reinforced the view that the U.S. economy is cooling without collapsing.

• Markets are now pricing in roughly an 80–83% chance of a 25 bps Fed rate cut at the December 9–10 meeting, up sharply from about 42–43% last week, according to CME FedWatch.
• The PCE price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, has been rescheduled to December 5 due to data delays linked to a prolonged government shutdown, making it one of the final key inputs before the December decision.

The U.S. dollar index (DXY) has reacted accordingly:

• The DXY has fallen around 0.5% from a near six-month high,
• It last traded at 99.70, providing an additional tailwind for gold, industrial metals, and risk-sensitive currencies.

5. Gold & Metals: Safe-Haven Demand and Dollar Drift Lift Precious Metals

5.1 Gold: Rate-Cut Bets and Haven Flows

Gold prices rose in Asian trading on Wednesday, benefiting from the combination of softer U.S. data, a weaker dollar, and still-elevated geopolitical and fiscal risks.

• Spot gold climbed 0.9% to $4,166.13/oz,
• February gold futures rose 0.9% to $4,201.15/oz by 00:24 ET (05:24 GMT).

Investors are increasingly convinced that the Fed will cut rates in December, supporting non-yielding assets like gold by reducing the appeal of Treasuries and other interest-bearing instruments.

At the same time, demand remains firm:

• Tensions between Japan and China,
• Ongoing uncertainty over a Russia–Ukraine ceasefire, and
• Concerns about stretched fiscal spending in major economies
• have all helped keep a floor under bullion.

5.2 Silver, Platinum & Copper: Broad Metals Strength

Other precious and industrial metals also advanced:

• Spot silver rose 1% to $52.0215/oz, hovering near record territory.
• Spot platinum gained 0.2% to $1,559.90/oz.
• On the industrial side, benchmark copper futures on the LME rose 0.3% to $10,992.90 per tonne, buoyed by news that Chilean giant Codelco plans to sharply increase prices for Chinese customers.

The combination of lower U.S. yields, a softer dollar, and solid demand indicators out of China has created a supportive backdrop for the broader metals complex.

6. Equities: Asia Tech Rebounds as AI Hype Outweighs Nvidia Jitters

6.1 Global & Asia-Pacific Indices

Risk sentiment in equities improved markedly:

• On Tuesday, the S&P 500 posted its third straight daily gain, sparking a broad rebound in global stocks.
• On Wednesday, MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rose 1%, as markets leaned into the prospect of a December Fed cut.

In Asia:

• Japan’s Nikkei 225 and South Korea’s KOSPI each rose about 2%,
• Japan’s TOPIX index added 1.9%, supported by industrials and energy names linked to the AI and data-center build-out.
• Australia’s ASX 200 climbed 0.9%, powered by heavyweight banks and miners, shrugging off hotter-than-expected CPI data.
• Singapore’s Straits Times index gained 0.6%, while India’s Nifty 50 rose 0.7% in early trade.

6.2 Nvidia, Alphabet & Asian Tech Winners

Tech was at the center of the move:

• Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) slid to a two-month low at 177.82, down 2.59%, after reports that Google (Alphabet, NASDAQ: GOOGL) is preparing its own AI chips that could compete directly with Nvidia’s offerings.
• Despite concerns over Nvidia’s valuation and financing structures, AI-linked enthusiasm remained strong, especially after Alphabet’s stock hit a series of record highs amid reports of its own processor roadmap.

In Asia’s tech complex:

• SoftBank Group (TYO: 9984) surged 6.3%, rebounding from recent heavy losses tied to worries over its exposure to OpenAI and intensifying AI competition.
• Ibiden (TYO: 4062), a key Nvidia supplier, fell 5.2% after a downgrade to Equal Weight by Morgan Stanley.
• Murata Manufacturing (TYO: 6981) jumped 2.8% following an upgrade to Overweight.

7. Hong Kong & China: Alibaba Disappoints, Meituan Shines, Property Worries Persist

Hong Kong and mainland Chinese markets lagged the regional rebound:

• The Hang Seng Index rose 0.5%, but tech names underperformed peers in Japan and Korea.
• Alibaba Group dropped 1.5% despite reporting better-than-expected fiscal Q2 earnings. While e-commerce and cloud revenues were solid, margin pressure from subsidies and AI investment weighed on sentiment.
• In contrast, Meituan (HK: 3690) rallied more than 6%, emerging as the top performer on the Hang Seng, as investors welcomed the prospect of weaker spending by Alibaba in instant commerce.

On the mainland:

• The CSI 300 and Shanghai Composite gained 0.8% and 0.1%, respectively.
• Ongoing concerns over China’s property sector and investor confidence in China Vanke (HK: 2202) remained a drag, with recent bond sell-offs underscoring lingering stress.
• Caution was also reinforced by reports of U.S. involvement in a diplomatic dispute between China and Japan, adding to geopolitical uncertainty.

Still, a phone call between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping has offered some hope of improving bilateral ties, particularly on trade and technology.

8. FX: Asia Currencies Steady as Fed Cut Bets Rise

Most Asian currencies traded in tight ranges on Wednesday as the market balanced rising Fed cut expectations against local data and policy themes.

• The U.S. Dollar Index was broadly steady in Asia hours after its overnight 0.5% drop.
• USD/JPY was little changed, consolidating after a 0.5% decline driven by BoJ’s newly hawkish signaling.
• USD/KRW edged up 0.1%, USD/SGD traded flat, and USD/INR dipped 0.1%, reflecting mild dollar softness.
• Both onshore (USD/CNY) and offshore (USD/CNH) yuan pairs were largely unchanged, suggesting that traders are waiting for clearer signals on China’s policy stance and U.S.–China relations.

9. Oil: Prices Hold Declines on Soft Demand and Peace-Talk Headlines

Oil markets remained under pressure, with only a modest rebound after sharp losses on Tuesday:

• As of 21:06 ET (02:06 GMT), Brent January futures were up 0.2% at $62.60/bbl,
• WTI crude futures gained 0.2% to $58.08/bbl.
• Both benchmarks had fallen nearly 1.5% in the previous session, hitting their lowest levels in over a month.

9.1 U.S. Inventories: Smaller-Than-Expected Draw

The latest API data showed:

• U.S. crude inventories fell by 1.9 million barrels in the week ending Nov. 21, below expectations for a 2.4 million-barrel draw.
• Gasoline stocks rose by 500,000 barrels,
• Distillate stocks increased by 800,000 barrels, underscoring muted demand heading into the holiday travel season.

9.2 Russia–Ukraine Peace Framework Weighs on Prices

Geopolitics is also in play:

• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said Kyiv is ready to advance a U.S.-backed framework to end the war with Russia, following revised proposals discussed in Geneva with U.S. and European officials.
• Analysts note that credible progress toward peace could eventually lead to easing sanctions on Russian crude and refined products, increasing global supply and putting structural pressure on prices.

Oil traders now await official U.S. government stockpile data later today and further clarity on diplomatic efforts before taking larger directional positions.

10. Trade Flow Highlight: China Buys U.S. Soybeans After Trump–Xi Call

Global agricultural markets were jolted by news that China has bought at least 10 cargoes of U.S. soybeans, worth around $300 million, in deals signed since Tuesday.

• Each cargo is estimated at 60,000–65,000 tons, and shipments are scheduled from Gulf Coast and Pacific Northwest ports in January.
• The purchases follow a phone call between Trump and Xi, during which Trump pushed Beijing to accelerate and increase imports of U.S. goods.
• The deals extend a surge in Chinese buying that began after late-October talks in South Korea, led by state-run COFCO, which has already booked nearly 2 million tons of U.S. soybeans.

Interestingly, China is willing to pay a premium:

• Around $2.3/bushel over January CBOT futures for Gulf shipments,
• Around $2.2/bushel for Pacific Northwest cargos,
• compared to roughly $1.8/bushel over CBOT for Brazilian beans.

Despite the price disadvantage, officials say the purchases are aligned with trade commitments:

• U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reiterated that Chinese buying is “right on schedule” under an agreement for 87.5 million tons of U.S. soybeans over three and a half years, even if volumes remain below some headline targets.

11. Crypto: Bitcoin Mining Quietly Rebounds in China Despite Ban

In the crypto space, Bitcoin mining in China is staging a discreet comeback, despite the official ban on trading and mining since 2021.

Key developments:

• China’s share of global Bitcoin mining has recovered to around 14% as of October, according to Hashrate Index, placing it back in third place worldwide.
• The rebound coincides with Bitcoin’s strong price performance earlier this year and reflects strong economic incentives in power-abundant regions such as Xinjiang and Sichuan.
• Local miners cite an oversupply of electricity and computing power following over-investment in data centers by cash-strapped local governments, making mining profitable despite regulatory risk.

Equipment makers are seeing the impact:

• Canaan, a major mining-rig manufacturer, derived 30.3% of its global revenue from China last year, up from 2.8% in 2022.
• In Q2 this year, China’s share of Canaan’s sales reportedly climbed to over 50%, driven by higher Bitcoin prices, U.S. tariff uncertainty, and a subtle softening of China’s stance on digital assets.

Policy remains officially restrictive, but signals are mixed:

• Bitcoin mining is still formally banned, yet 15–20% of global capacity is estimated to be operating in China.
• Initiatives such as Hong Kong’s stablecoin framework and discussions around yuan-backed stablecoins suggest that Beijing is experimenting with ways to harness digital asset infrastructure without fully embracing open-ended crypto trading.

12. What to Watch Ahead

Looking forward, markets will focus on:

• UK Budget details: The composition and scale of Reeves’ tax measures and any growth or investment incentives.
• U.S. PCE (Dec. 5): The final major inflation print before the December 9–10 Fed meeting.
• Official U.S. crude inventory data: Confirmation or contrast with API figures and its impact on oil.
• BoJ communication: Further hints on the timing and scale of a potential rate hike.
• RBA & RBNZ guidance: Whether the RBA leans more hawkish and whether the RBNZ’s “end of easing” message sticks.
• Trade & geopolitics: Progress on the Russia–Ukraine peace framework, and follow-through on China’s U.S. soybean purchases.
• Crypto mining regulation: Any new signals from Beijing on enforcement or tacit tolerance of mining activity.

FAQ — Global Markets Today

1. Why did gold prices rise today?

Gold gained on Wednesday because weak U.S. economic data boosted expectations of a December Fed rate cut, pushing the dollar and yields lower. At the same time, geopolitical tensions and concerns over fiscal sustainability kept haven demand elevated.

2. What is driving the rebound in Asian equities?

Asian stocks rallied as markets priced in a higher probability of Fed easing, which supports risk assets, tech, and growth names. Positive cues from Wall Street and renewed optimism around AI-related earnings added to the upside, even as Nvidia faced company-specific headwinds.

3. How likely is a Fed rate cut in December?

Fed funds futures currently imply around an 80–83% probability of a 25 bps cut at the December 9–10 meeting, up sharply from about 42–43% a week ago, as investors respond to cooling data and dovish commentary from some Fed officials.

4. Why is China’s Bitcoin mining activity rising again despite the 2021 ban?

The rebound reflects strong economic incentives: higher Bitcoin prices, cheap electricity in regions like Xinjiang and Sichuan, and excess data-center capacity. While mining remains officially banned, enforcement appears uneven, and miners continue to operate where power costs are low enough to offset regulatory risk.