Brazil’s March 17–18, 2026, Copom meeting could mark the start of a long-awaited easing cycle, but the first move is unlikely to be aggressive. Copom is expected to cut the rates by 25bps, but oil volatility and still-resilient labor conditions argue for a shallow and cautious cycle. This preview breaks down inflation at 3.81%, slowing GDP, labor-market resilience, oil-shock risks, and what a 25bp cut could mean for BRL and local bond markets.

The SNB is expected to hold at 0%, but markets are focused on low inflation, franc strength, and whether foreign-exchange intervention becomes the key policy tool. This preview breaks down Switzerland’s ultra-low inflation, soft growth backdrop, the role of the Swiss franc, and why FX intervention may matter more than any change in rates.

The BoJ is widely expected to keep its policy rate unchanged at 0.75%, yet markets will be watching closely for any signal on how Governor Kazuo Ueda interprets the balance between rising inflation risks and a still-fragile domestic recovery, at its March 18–19, 2026 meeting. This preview breaks down Japan’s improving wage picture, mixed inflation signals, the oil-shock risk from the Middle East, and what Governor Ueda’s tone could mean for the yen, JGB yields, and the next rate hike.

The March 17–18 FOMC meeting may leave rates unchanged, but it remains one of the most important policy events of the month. This preview breaks down the dot plot, SEP revisions, inflation risks, labor-market softness, geopolitical pressure from the Iran conflict, and what Powell’s message could mean for the U.S. dollar, Treasury yields, and equities.

The Bank of Canada’s March 18, 2026, policy meeting comes at a delicate moment for the Canadian economy, with inflation moving closer to target while growth, consumer demand, and labor market momentum continue to soften. Although price pressures have eased and inflation is no longer forcing a more restrictive stance, weaker GDP, slower retail activity, and a cooling employment backdrop suggest the BoC is likely to remain cautious. Markets broadly expect the central bank to leave rates unchanged at 2.25% and maintain a patient, data-dependent tone.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) heads into its March 16–17 policy meeting with markets still reassessing the implications of its surprise February rate hike. The Reserve Bank of Australia heads into its next policy meeting with inflation still above target, household inflation expectations rising, and markets reconsidering the path for interest rates. This preview examines the latest inflation, growth, labor market, and trade data, and explains why the RBA may pause in March while keeping a clear hawkish bias.

The “MAGA → MIGA” idea rests less on a detailed policy program than on a story about status: that the U.S. has been perceived (by rivals and many domestic voters) as losing its grip on world events; that rivals have amplified this story; and that a dramatic, decisive outcome in Iran—framed not as occupation but as “Make Iran Great Again”—could be presented as proof that America is “back in the game.” This report analyzes the argument in the context of recent conflicts and the media narratives constructed, testing it against documented events and acknowledged limitations.

The January CPI report came in slightly cooler than expectations. Core CPI rose 0.30% amid a big jump in airfares that was offset by softer-than-expected readings for used cars and primary shelter. Headline and core CPI inflation on a year-ago basis slipped to 2.4% and 2.5%, respectively, with the latter posting its lowest reading since March 2021.

January’s US labor-market report painted a “still-resilient” picture: headline payrolls beat expectations, private hiring came in even stronger, and unemployment dipped to 4.3%. The bigger market signal was wages—average hourly earnings rose 0.4% m/m (with the y/y rate holding at 3.7%), while average weekly hours ticked up, suggesting labor demand hasn’t cooled enough to force the Fed’s hand. Markets reacted by repricing the next policy step to a 94% probability of holding rates, shifting focus back to inflation prints and financial conditions as the true decision-makers.

The European Central Bank and the Bank of England both kept policy rates unchanged today, but the market read-through wasn’t identical. The ECB’s message was broadly “steady hand” amid a recent inflation dip and elevated geopolitical/trade uncertainty, while the BoE’s knife-edge 5–4 vote split was taken as a more dovish signal—prompting a sharper reaction in sterling and gilts.

The United States entered a partial government shutdown in early 2026 after Congress failed to finalize all federal funding bills. This article explains what a partial shutdown is, when it began, which federal employees and services are affected, why the political deadlock happened, how it can end, and how it compares with past U.S. government shutdowns.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) kept policy on hold at its January meeting, framing the economy as expanding at a “solid pace,” while acknowledging low job gains, tentative stabilization in unemployment, and inflation that remains “somewhat elevated.”