The December 2025 CPI report was broadly encouraging. Core CPI rose 12 bps less than expected, mainly because core goods inflation rebounded less than anticipated after November’s unusually soft, shutdown-delayed print. Year-over-year core CPI held at 2.6%, improving from 3.1% in August and 3.2% in December 2024, though a shelter-related quirk may be artificially lowering y/y readings by about 0.1pp. The outlook still faces near-term risks from Q1 repricing seasonality and potential tariff pressures.

December’s labor report showed slower job growth but firm pay gains. Nonfarm payrolls rose just 50K, with private hiring at 37K and manufacturing still contracting. Government jobs improved, while unemployment edged down to 4.4% as participation slipped. Average weekly hours eased, yet wages stayed sticky—up 0.3% m/m and 3.8% y/y—keeping inflation pressures alive despite softer hiring.

Financial markets follow the policy meetings of large central banks closely because the decisions and projections released at these meetings influence interest rates, currencies, and risk‐asset prices. Below is a 2026 calendar for ten widely followed central banks. For each institution, the table lists the official meeting dates (with emphasis on meetings that include economic projections, summary reports, or dot‑plots). A short review highlights the central bank’s policy framework and recent context.

This week’s macro tape delivered a clean split: U.S. inflation cooled more than expected, the U.S. labor market stayed steady, the ECB held policy unchanged, and the Bank of England began easing—by a narrow margin. In my latest video, I walk through these prints and what they imply for rates, FX, and risk assets into year-end.

The latest U.S. employment release delivered an unusual “two-month” snapshot after the federal government shutdown delayed the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) publication schedule. The key message is a labor market that is still expanding, but with increasingly clear signs of softening underneath the headline.

The Federal Reserve delivered a widely anticipated 25 bps rate cut at its latest meeting, lowering the federal funds target range to 3.50%–3.75%. On the surface, this looks like another step in the easing cycle. In reality, the tone of the statement and projections sent a more nuanced message: the bar for additional cuts has been raised, even as the Fed keeps a clear easing bias in place. Below is a breakdown of what the Fed did, how it framed the outlook, and how markets digested the decision.

This article and video break down what investors expect from the Fed’s December 10, 2025, meeting, how the market is pricing future rate moves, and what different scenarios could mean for equities, bonds, the dollar, and key assets.

The latest U.S. labor market data paints a mixed and confusing picture for policymakers and investors. While nonfarm payrolls rose more than expected in September, the unemployment rate climbed to its highest level in four years. Slowing wage growth, downward revisions to prior months, and a delayed report due to the government shutdown add even more uncertainty ahead of the Federal Reserve’s critical December meeting. This analysis breaks down the contradictory signals, market implications, and what the Fed may—or may not—do next.

The Bank of England decided to maintain its benchmark interest rate at 4% during the November 2025 meeting. The MPC’s narrow 5–4 vote reflected growing confidence that inflation has peaked but highlighted caution amid slower economic growth and labour market slack.

Between Nvidia’s earnings, a wave of retail results, the Fed minutes, and critical macro data ahead, today marks a potentially defining moment for broader market sentiment. A strong Nvidia print could reignite AI optimism and lift tech stocks. A cautious or disappointing outlook, however, could deepen the ongoing correction and extend risk aversion across markets.

Is the AI boom a real productivity revolution or another speculative bubble? This full analysis compares today’s AI cycle with the dot-com era, using market history, macro indicators, investor behavior, policy risk, and monetization expectations to assess whether AI is inflated — and what could break if the boom turns into a bust. Is the current AI surge a genuine technological revolution or the early stages of a speculative bubble? This analysis revisits the dot-com era to compare valuations, capital flows, and productivity gains.