While investors will focus more on banking crises and central banks’ measures, speakers in different countries will try to explain the situation in more detail. We will also have the European inflation numbers and the Fed’s favored measure of inflation in the US on Friday, which must give us a brighter perspective of future policies. […]
After digesting data and announcements, investors thought long and concluded that we are close to the end of the rate hike cycle and read it as a positive sign to be happy. The question now is, how long can this optimism last? Fed forecast for the terminal rate ending at 5.1% suggests just one more […]
The two-day meeting of the Federal Reserve started on Tuesday. At the same time, important questions have occupied the mind, like will the recent banking collapse affect the policymakers’ decisions, and how many more hikes will we have? And so on. The last FOMC meeting concluded on February 1, where analysts believe that results were […]
Recently seen banking crises, increased market uncertainties, and changed the analysts’ market outlook. Some analysts now believe that central banks will not need to try to cool down the economy, and it has enough reason to slow down, especially with the fear of banking bankruptcy. Nevertheless, ahead of next week’s Fed meeting, ECB had no […]
After banking concerns and the fear of its rapid spread to other sectors, some market participants thought Fed might stop its interest rate hikes. Still, this feeling was short-lived, as inflation numbers showed continuing rate hike concerns. Therefore, a 25 basis point rate hike is again most likely predicted. February CPI numbers showed that the […]
With China reopening, lower energy prices, the strong job market in most developed economies, and the relative growth of retail sales, our global economic outlook changed. Now we are less worried about the severity of the upcoming economic recession. Gas prices helped the Europeans fulfill their storage and replenish the gas crisis. Also, lower energy […]
While we are waiting for NFP numbers on Friday, in recent days, market participants have been following the ADP and JOLTs data and Mr. Powell’s semi-annual monetary policy testimony to the Senate Finance Committee. On Tuesday and Wednesday, Mr. Powell answered the questions in the Senate. Mainly he emphasized inflation and the labor market. He […]
March uncertainty start t increase even more with three major central banks’ interest rate decisions and US labor market data, but still, we have many other numbers to watch. However, the focus still will be on Friday’s US non-farm payrolls, where labor market conditions will tell us what exactly we have to expect from the […]
Most market participants are looking for signs to understand what Fed is going to decide. Will they raise the rates by 50 basis points, then 25, and then end the rate hike cycle before it starts decreasing next year, or will they go for 25 bps, and the next steps will be waiting for market […]
After the US bond yields rose today, German Bund Yields also raised to 2.58% and now trading at a 12-year high. Since market participants know the German 10-year bond as the risk-free reference asset for the Eurozone, this can be read as a long-term high inflation signal in the whole of Europe. Especially after that, […]
We will have a busy Tuesday with PMI numbers from Europe and the US and Canadian inflation data. We are optimistic about most of these data results as lower energy prices in the past months can be a good driver for the global economy. Expected data can have a short-lived positive effect. Yesterday US market, […]
Uncertainty is the most certain thing. Uncertainty is the most certain thing seen in the financial markets these days. Economic data and outlook, inflation numbers, and central banks’ decisions create a chaotic situation. In the week ahead, with central banks meeting in China and New Zealand, PMI numbers from European countries, and Personal Spending data […]
Before investigating the US inflation effects on financial markets, reviewing the numbers in more detail would be better. According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the US consumer inflation in January raised 6.4% year-on-year. This decline from 6.5% in December, the seventh consecutive month of fall and the smallest increase since October 2021, is […]
2023 started with many surprise data from different economies, Chinese reopening, decreasing inflating across the globe, and upward revisions by the World Bank to better economic growth expectations. This article will review the most known symbols and watch what we expect in February. US DOLLAR The US dollar started the year with a 2% gain […]
Central banks and nothing else! We can expect volatile global markets in the week that Fed, ECB, and BoE have policy meetings and interest rate decisions while earnings season continues. The labor market seems fine in the US, UK, and even the Eurozone, but central banks will have difficulty avoiding recession while inflation is still […]
While we are getting ready to close the week with some gains in the stock markets and a loss in the USD rate, economic data from the US can lower the recession concerns. The US labor market continues its positive attitude. In the week that ended Friday, January 20, we had only 186K apply for […]
At the beginning of 2022 and before the Russia-Ukraine war, we had predicted that SP500 could gain between 9%-13%. War changed the expectations, and in revisions, we have been talking about recovery above 3,500 USD. For 2023, while it seems like an opportunity to grow from current low levels, we still have some risks there, […]
The year starts with NFP Happy New Year. We are in IFC Markets wish you a great year ahead. This trading week starts on Tuesday, as Monday is the New Year holiday in most parts of the world. After disappointing data in the last months of last year, investors hope to start 2023 with more […]
On Thursday, the number of Americans applying for unemployment insurance (Initial Jobless Claims) grew by less than expected during the week that ended on December 17. According to data from the Labor Department, last week 216,000 Americans claimed to receive unemployment support, more than 214K seen in the week before that, but less than 222K […]
While Federal Reserve FOMC released hawkish hints, especially in its rate hikes and inflation estimates, ECB also noted that its policies are becoming tight. Like Fed and BoE, the European Central Bank also raised its key rate from 1.5% to 2% with a smaller rate hike. However, the hawkish stance is seen in its plan […]
