It is predicted that Federal Reserve will slow its interest rate hikes at the end of its two-day policy meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday. The latest inflation data published Tuesday shows that consumer prices have lowered faster than expected. The consensus estimate is that the central bank to raise its benchmark interest rate by 50 […]
While market participants were waiting for another decrease in inflation numbers, actual numbers showed a much more significant reduction than estimates. Investors were expecting that inflation in November raised by 0.3% month-over-month, translating to a 7.3% year-over-year pace. However, according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report, US headline inflation rose 0.1% from October […]
The yield curve graphs the relationship between bond yields and bond maturity. It captures the perceived risks of bonds with various maturities to bond investors. (Investopedia) Bond duration could be different. US Treasury issues bonds with a minimum of month maturity and a maximum of 30 years. Since the yields on bonds are mainly calculated […]
After two months of growth, US Stock markets dropped for a fourth straight session on Tuesday. Oil also fell sharply and, with Brent futures at $79 a barrel, is back where it began the year. In addition, China posted far weaker-than-expected trade data, and none had a good recovery prospect in the last month of […]
Given the different surprises in recent days in the economic calendar, we can not have an exact analysis of tomorrow’s non-farm payroll numbers. However, based on published data so far, we can not expect an upward surprise. The last signal before the Fed meeting With Thursday’s published initial Jobless claims numbers, the 4-week moving average […]
At the time of writing, Mrs. Lagarde’s testimony in the European Parliament continues. So far she told that Eurozone inflation has not peaked and the risk is that it will turn out even higher than currently expected. In its Monday speech, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde also said: “We do not see the components […]
Due to holidays on Thursday and Friday, most of the US economic data that was supposed to be released during the week was published on Wednesday. However, the market focus on Wednesday was mostly on minutes of held FOMC monetary policy meeting back in early November. According to the published minutes, most participants believed that […]
A report about a record spike in new COVID-19 cases in several Chinese cities at the beginning of the week was the most worrying news! New lockdowns in several financial hubs including the capital Beijing and economic center Shanghai after last week’s weak economic data can increase the level of risks in financial markets. With […]
US futures trading a bit higher to compensate for previous losses after testing recent two-month highs. In the last few days, most of the US Federal Reserve emphasized continuing interest rate hikes, while the US bond yield curve signaled a recession. After recent comments from Fed officials, US two-year bond yields rose towards 4.50. While […]
The US reported October retail sales on Wednesday. With the promising numbers that we had, we could see that retail sales could outpace the monthly rise in prices for the first time in several months. As it was expected, Retail sales rise by 1.3%. Core retail sales also raised by 1.3% in October, which is […]
With the Fed meeting on Wednesday, November 2, the US dollar experienced heavy volatility last week, while this week also fluctuations can be even more intense. We already had mid-term elections and now waiting for results, while Fed speakers across the week are supposed to give us more details about their future plans. Last week […]
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the October jobs report on Friday, November 4, while just two days ago, we had FOMC monetary policy meeting, where Fed officials confirmed that the US labor market improvement was significant and acceptable. For September, the consensus expectation of 250,000 jobs, was beaten by 63,000 more […]
Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will raise interest rates by another 0.75 percentage points for the fourth straight meeting. When Fed started raising the rates by 75 basis points, they did not want that it becomes a norm. However, by repeating it four times, the Federal Reserve is apparently going to break its promise. Don’t […]
For the second meeting in a row, the Reserve Bank of Australia continued its slower pace of tightening policies. On October 4, while market participants were waiting for a 50-bps rate hike to 2.85%, the policymakers decided to act a bit softer with only a 25-bps rate hike to 2.60% and today, on Tuesday, November […]
Last week ended with US consumer price index data. On Friday, the US September core PCE price index increased by 0.5%, in line with market expectations, while the previous month was revised down to 0.5% from 0.6% in the initial report, but annually increased by 5.1%, slightly lower than 5.2% market expectations. This is while […]
European Central bank will announce its interest rate decision and monetary policies on Thursday, 27 October. According to different reports and market estimates, the ECB is due to raising borrowing costs by 75 bps for the second time in a row. This expected rate hike will increase the main refinancing rate to 2% and the […]
On Wednesday, as was expected and we mentioned in our weekly outlook, the Bank of Canada raised interest rates by 50 basis points to 3.75%, lower than consensus market expectations for a 75-basis point hike. However, with the current level of interest rates, BoC has had the highest rates since January 2008 Bank of Canada […]
The new week started with PMI numbers from major economies, with lower-than-expected results. French manufacturing PMI in October at 47.4, was the lowest since May 2020, while the initial value of the service PMI recorded 51.3, approaching 51.0, which was seen earlier in August this year. In Germany, October manufacturing PMI hit a 28-month low […]
British New Chancellor of the Exchequer was the main reason that government could make a U-turn in some of its economic plans, scraping some of the most controversial parts of the mini-budget. The budget that is being talked about including major tax cuts, would primarily benefit the highest earners in a time of heightened economic […]
In the past few weeks, there were many talks about Mrs. Truss’ economic plans, and finally, we saw some U-turn after pressures and criticisms from economists. The government in 10 downing street finally reversed the tax cuts that would primarily benefit the highest earners, as economic pressures increase on British households. If the BOE continues […]
