March 26, 2023
Analysis
Forex

Euro after mixed PMI data!

While the Manufacturing sector still suffers, the service sector growth is strong. According to the data published on Friday, S&P Global’s flash rose to 54.1 from 52.0 in February, clearly above the 50 levels, indicating growth and challenging the analysts’ expectations for slower growth. The service sector is fine, but the Manufacturing sector can still […]

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Fundamental

Wall Street reversed yesterday’s loss; what next?

After digesting data and announcements, investors thought long and concluded that we are close to the end of the rate hike cycle and read it as a positive sign to be happy. The question now is, how long can this optimism last? Fed forecast for the terminal rate ending at 5.1% suggests just one more […]

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Forex

Can the USD Index breach under the 100 Mark?

Policy makers’ decision in their last meeting was not hawkish, but it was not dovish as well to help the stock markets as well. More than anything else, it brought a feeling of disappointment for investors. Decision makers in the US Federal Reserve Open Market Committee raised the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points […]

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Fundamental

BoE Preview | March 2023

After a 50 bps rate hike in January, while we had some signs of lowering inflation and slower economic growth, some economists supported ending the rate hike cycle. However, Wednesday’s published inflation numbers changed the market sentiment, and now we have even some whispers about a 50 bps hike. The Bank of England’s (BoE) policy […]

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Commodities

Oil and conditions that are not very favorable for it

While data shows rising US inventories, fears of weaker demand also increase pressure on Oil prices. According to the American Petroleum Institute, released late Tuesday, US crude oil inventories rose by about 3.3 million barrels last week, contrary to the market expectation of about a 1.6 million barrels decrease. If the Energy Information Administration confirms […]

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Fundamental

FED Preview | March 2023

The two-day meeting of the Federal Reserve started on Tuesday. At the same time, important questions have occupied the mind, like will the recent banking collapse affect the policymakers’ decisions, and how many more hikes will we have? And so on. The last FOMC meeting concluded on February 1, where analysts believe that results were […]

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Commodities

Gold and return under 2,000 US Dollars!

After touching above 2K, yellow metal returned under this key and psychological level, last seen in August 2022. As banking concerns have been lifting the Gold demand, with fewer concerns and more signs of confidence, trends reversed. Also, before the latest Federal Reserve policy meeting, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said on Monday that […]

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Cryptocurrency

Crypto Safe-haven role and a new scandal

In recent days cryptocurrencies have been taking advantage of uncertainty in other markets. Many people started to talk about the safe-haven opportunity that Bitcoin and many other altcoins could give us. However, the whispers about iEarnBot challenged this position and raised alarm bells. The ongoing United States banking crisis made the Federal Reserve inject $300 […]

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Fundamental

The New Economic Outlook with More Uncertainties

Recently seen banking crises, increased market uncertainties, and changed the analysts’ market outlook. Some analysts now believe that central banks will not need to try to cool down the economy, and it has enough reason to slow down, especially with the fear of banking bankruptcy. Nevertheless, ahead of next week’s Fed meeting, ECB had no […]

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Commodities

China’s lukewarm recovery could not help WTI.

China retail sales raised 3.5% annually in January and February, while fixed asset investment growth ticked up to 5.5% to avoid the risks of the real estate sector with the bottoming-out signal. However, slower industrial production growth with a 2.4% improvement and slower labor market developments kept the worries alive. In addition, Eurozone and the […]

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Fundamental

ECB Preview | March 2023

While on Thursday, March 16, eyes will be on the ECB interest rate decision, and we are waiting for a 50 bps rate hike, I must emphasize that the liquidity position of the Eurozone banking sector appears to have improved in recent years, suggesting more of a balance between banks’ deposits base and loans extended […]

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Fundamental

Inflation concerns remain; Retail sales did not follow the January raise!

After banking concerns and the fear of its rapid spread to other sectors, some market participants thought Fed might stop its interest rate hikes. Still, this feeling was short-lived, as inflation numbers showed continuing rate hike concerns. Therefore, a 25 basis point rate hike is again most likely predicted. February CPI numbers showed that the […]

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Cryptocurrency

Doge and 22% loss in 7 days!

DOGE’s 24-hour trading volume shows more than a 70% increase, about 23% loss in 7 days of trading. With increasing Doge supply in exchanges, these data also increase the market risk more than before. The overall cryptocurrency market has been under pressure after the bankruptcy of Silvergate Capital Corp. One week after Silvergate shut down […]

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Fundamental

NFP Preview | March 2023

While we are waiting for NFP numbers on Friday, in recent days, market participants have been following the ADP and JOLTs data and Mr. Powell’s semi-annual monetary policy testimony to the Senate Finance Committee. On Tuesday and Wednesday, Mr. Powell answered the questions in the Senate. Mainly he emphasized inflation and the labor market. He […]

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Forex

BoC and Oil sent the Loonie deeper!

On Wednesday, the Bank of Canada held its monetary policy and interest rate decision meeting. After eight straight months of rate hikes totaling 425 basis points, interest rates rose to 4.5%; this pause was read as a signal of the end of contractionary policies by market participants. As the first major Central bank, BoC ended […]

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Forex

Sterling should have used the opportunities.

According to data published Tuesday, March 7, UK Halifax House Prices Rose by 1.1% in February, 3-Year Treasury Gilt Auction raised to 4.151%, and Mortgage Rate in February increased to 7.02%. In addition, Retail Sales and Construction PMI beat Estimates. While UK headline inflation cooled and dropped to 10.1% year-on-year in January from 10.5% in […]

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Forex

The expected decision sent the Aussie down almost 1%

As was widely expected, the Reserve bank of Australia raised the rates by only 25 bps but signaled more hikes in following meetings. Bringing the rates to 3.60%, RBA raised interest rates to over a 10-year high, but it is not the end of the cycle, as they still needed to combat runaway price pressures. […]

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Stock & Indices

Slow and Steady, so 50 or 25 basis points?

Most market participants are looking for signs to understand what Fed is going to decide. Will they raise the rates by 50 basis points, then 25, and then end the rate hike cycle before it starts decreasing next year, or will they go for 25 bps, and the next steps will be waiting for market […]

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Cryptocurrency

Bankruptcy, Loss & trust in Digital assets!

Cryptocurrency-focused lender Silvergate Capital reported a $1 billion loss in its Q4 2022 earnings as investors raced to withdraw deposits after crypto exchange FTX’s bankruptcy. The Company is currently re-evaluating its businesses and strategies in light of its current business and regulatory challenges. These troubles highlight the fragility of confidence in digital assets. In less […]

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Forex

USD/RUB back above 75!

While Ruble was the best-preformed currency in 2022, and even after December’s weakness, it started January stronger, with USDRUB testing 72 on January 13. Still, later things could have gone better for it. Lately, the United States and the UK added more Russian banks to their sanctions lists, and Europeans booted more banks from SWIFT, […]

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